Newspaper Article Archive

Last updated: May 2013

The following is a list of articles that I have written for various news outlets. It will be updated continuously.

The Globe and Mail

15/05/13 - Why were the polls completely wrong about the B.C. election?
13/05/13 - B.C. NDP poised to win election, Liberal momentum stalling
09/05/13 - Trudeau's Liberals lead Tories by seven points in polls
06/05/13 - B.C. Liberals closing gap with NDP in election polls
01/05/13 - B.C. Liberals gain on NDP in polls, but they're still the long shot
30/04/13 - Ontario Liberals and PCs in close race, NDP falls behind in polls
24/04/13 - Why the B.C. NDP aren't likely to see a Wildrose-like collapse
23/04/13 - Why Trudeau's polling bump may not last long
17/04/13 - Polls give BC NDP near-insurmountable lead over Liberals
15/04/13 - How Trudeau's campaign has boosted the Liberals in polls
12/04/13 - Low approval ratings give BC and NS premiers cause for concern
04/04/13 - Trudeau boosts Liberals into tie with Conservatives in polls
28/03/13 - Why a change to your ballot would give the NDP an edge next election
21/03/13 - Why B.C. Liberals see hope in the polls (and why they're probably wrong)
14/03/13 - Why the Conservative slide in the polls is worse than usual
07/03/13 - Why Premier Wynne's polling honeymoon may soon end
28/02/13 - Marois holds slim but steady lead in Quebec polls
19/02/13 - Ontario Liberals up in polls since Wynne won, but election a gamble
11/02/13 - When should backbenchers give up all hope of being in cabinet?
03/02/13 - Wildrose or PQ senators? Welcome to an elected red chamber
28/01/13 - Conservatives benefit as NDP's slide in the polls continues
21/01/13 - Natives are under-represented in Parliament - and for women and youth it's even worse
16/01/13 - Ontario Liberal race: Pupatello leans rural, Wynne takes Toronto
15/01/13 - Higher native turnout could have reduced Harper to minority government
08/01/13 - Winter of discontent: over the holiday break, party in power usually loses support
31/12/12 - After a rocky year in polling, the new normal: a slim Tory lead over the NDP
27/12/12 - Why Liberal polling numbers are all over the map
17/12/12 - Tories consistent in number of bills passed - the difference is they're bigger
10/12/12 - In Ontario Liberal leadership race, three hopefuls take colleague's support
03/12/12 - B.C. NDP on track to win provincial election in landslide
27/11/12 - Narrow NDP and Tory by-election wins show big boost in Green vote
19/11/12 - If Calgary Centre doesn't go blue, it would be a historic upset
07/11/12 - Who else won big last night? The pollsters and the forecasters
05/11/12 - Democrat or Republican: guess which party is better for Canada
29/10/12 - Ontario NDP picks up support in wake of McGuinty resignation announcement
22/10/12 - Will Liberals keep their Trudeau bounce in the polls? Probably not
15/10/12 - What MPs actually talk about when they talk in Parliament
09/10/12 - Why cancelling the Mississauga gas plant was pointless for the Ontario Liberals
01/10/12 - NDP slips nationally as Quebec support weakens
24/09/12 - How routine MP speeches are becoming more and more partisan
18/09/12 - Are you an MP? If not, odds are you won't be Liberal leader
10/09/12 - How history would be different if Canada used U.S. electoral system
05/09/12 - PQ won Quebec election, despite under-performing numbers
03/09/12 - Quebecers poised to elect Marois first female premier
29/08/12 - Latest projections puts PQ on track for slim majority
22/08/12 - Do Charest's Liberals have more support than it appears?
15/08/12 - Parti Québécois lead in Quebec, as CAQ eats away at Liberal support
08/08/12 - Quebec election likely to leave minority government, but will it be Liberal or PQ?
02/08/12 - Francophone support gives Parti Québécois the edge
30/07/12 - In Quebec election, three-way races could make the difference
23/07/12 - Charest's fate in Quebec election comes down to these six ridings
16/07/12 - Quebec's next election winner may surprise
09/07/12 - Newfoundland NDP surges to first place in polls in historic shift
02/07/12 - With a shuffle in mind, how does the Tory cabinet stack up?
25/06/12 - Would a united left really be able to topple the Tories?
18/06/12 - Tory EI reform, NDP oil-sands barb lays bare regional split in polls
11/06/12 - Ontario NDP polling gains put McGuinty on shaky ground
04/06/12 - Conservative ridings aging quickest, census shows
28/05/12 - Why Harper should avoid 'governments lose by-elections' mantra
14/05/12 - With students in streets, Charest faces tough slog with PQ in polls
07/05/12 - How would Harper fare in a French-style run-off election?
30/04/12 - A year in, Harper's lost more ground in majority than two minorities
24/04/12 - Final Alberta poll hinted at decisive swing from Wildrose to PC
23/04/12 - Mulcair gives NDP significant bump in polls - but will it last?
16/04/12 - Wildrose on track for majority with a week to go in Alberta
09/04/12 - Toppling Alberta PCs would be historic - but Wildrose might not rule for long
02/04/12 - A week in, Alberta election is Wildrose's to lose
26/03/12 - On leadership mandate, Mulcair tops Dion but trails Harper
19/03/12 - On NDP endorsements, it's Mulcair's quantity vs. Topp's quality
12/03/12 - Pension tinkering fails to dent Tory support among older Canadians
05/03/12 - If robo-calls were meant to keep voters away, they failed miserably
27/02/12 - PQ claws its way back atop tumultuous Quebec polling landscape
20/02/12 - Are by-election voters swayed by the death of an MP in office?
13/02/12 - What US-style primaries would look like for the NDP
06/02/12 - Another PC majority appears all but inevitable in Alberta
30/01/12 - Alberta could be in for a surprise in the next election
23/01/12 - Just how big an electoral challenge do Liberals face in 2015?
16/01/12 - History tends to smile on MPs who cross the floor
09/01/12 - Mulcair gathering steam in NDP race, Wikipedia tea leaves suggest
04/01/12 - Tory and NDP slippages gives Liberals a polling boost in key provinces
26/12/11 - Tory peak, NDP surge and Liberal collapse mark turbulent year in polling
19/12/11 - How do leaders without seats reach the Commons?
12/12/11 - Quebec-born leaders give federal parties a significant electoral edge
05/12/11 - Farmers better represented in the House than the field as sun sets on wheat board
28/11/11 - Can Quebec's new party win over non-francophones?
21/11/11 - Will by-election boost Charest before battle with Legault begins in earnest?
14/11/11 - Provincial election results reinforce Liberal pain, Tory and NDP gain
06/11/11 - Brad Wall set to strengthen his hold on Saskatchewan
02/11/11 - Six months in, Tories peak and NDP shows staying power in polls
24/10/11 - Will redrawing Commons map resolve under-representation?
17/10/11 - Does lower voter turnout always favour incumbents?
09/10/11 - With Tories cruising to victory, Newfoundland NDP charts course for opposition
07/10/11 - Pollsters did better - but still missed mark - in Ontario
03/10/11 - McGuinty could still eke out majority in final days of uncertain race
26/09/11 - Neck-and-neck Ontario race favours McGuinty three weeks in
21/09/11 - Ballot box the only poll that matters - but which method works best beforehand?
18/09/11 - Hudak's Toronto stumble weighs down Tories after two weeks
12/09/11 - McGuinty, Hudak bound for even split in early days of Ontario vote
08/09/11 - HST riding breakdown shows method to Christy Clark election madness
29/08/11 - Jack Layton secures his place in NDP - and Canadian - pantheon
24/08/11 - With Harper in House, McGuinty has history on his side this fall
15/08/11 - Tories poised for win in Newfoundland's evolving election race
08/08/11 - In Ontario race, McGuinty may be running out of steam
01/08/11 - In Manitoba race, odds could tip in Greg Selinger's favour
26/07/11 - In Sask. and PEI re-election campaigns, there are no guarantees
18/07/11 - History doesn't bear out Harper's hope for brief NDP honeymoon in Quebec
11/07/11 - Summertime and government living is easy? Not necessarily
04/07/11 - Which federal party has the most 'career politicians'?
26/06/11 - So just how inexperienced is Layton's team of MPs?
20/06/11 - Will PQ pattern of revolt prevent Pauline Marois from becoming premier?
12/06/11 - How much will killing per-vote subsidy stack odds in Tory favour?
06/06/11 - Meet the average Tory, New Democrat, and Liberal voter
29/05/11 - The new Tory constituency: Far less francophone, far more multicultural
23/05/11 - The new NDP constituency: Far more francophone, far less multicultural
15/05/11 - The new Liberal constituency: less wealthy, less diverse, very East Coast
08/05/11 - A multimillion-vote seat change for federal parties
03/05/11 - How vote-splitting gave the Tories Ontario - and a majority
01/05/11 - Majority barely an option, Official Opposition up for grabs as final polls roll in
24/04/11 - Tory majority could hinge on where votes bleed to NDP in final week
17/04/11 - Liberal and NDP gains dampen Tory hopes for majority three weeks in
10/04/11 - Harper just shy of projected majority as momentum wanes after Week Two
03/04/11 - Tory majority still out of reach despite first-week gains, polls suggest
27/03/11 - The best - and worst - Harper, Ignatieff and Layton can expect from an election
20/03/11 - Tories and Bloc poised for modest gains in snap election
13/03/11 - Is Simcoe-Grey a Tory riding or a Guergis riding?
06/03/11 - New ridings unlikely to clear path to majority government
27/02/11 - From pre-writ polls to election day, history is not on Ignatieff's side
21/02/11 - AM radio or YouTube? How parties reach their supporters
14/02/11 - Sophomore MPs prove no easier to beat than veterans
09/02/11 - Though on rock-solid ground, Tories face fearsome odds for majority
07/02/11 - NDP weakness sets up two-way race between Harper and Ignatieff
02/02/11 - Liberals poised for gains, but not government, in make-or-break battle
31/01/11 - Liberals trump Tories on Twitter and Facebook, but Harper rules Google roost
27/01/11 - With a dozen MPs vulnerable, NDP faces defensive campaign
23/01/11 - Per-vote subsidy but a fraction of taxpayer support for political parties
19/01/11 - Bloc aims for high-water mark in Quebec
16/01/11 - Polls show Sisyphean task ahead for Harper and Ignatieff
13/01/11 - With bar set low, Greens have decent shot at victory
09/01/11 - Political deep freeze endures - even in hypothetical fantasyland
06/01/11 - More cabinet ministers mean more money and more votes
20/12/10 - Much ventured for only slight Conservative polling gain in 2010
17/12/10 - Is a Tory majority even possible?
12/12/10 - Darrell Dexter faces minority amid Atlantic Canadian landslides
08/12/10 - Liberal brand takes 10-year beating
06/12/10 - Tories edge back ahead of combined Liberal-NDP forces in seat projection
01/12/10 - Why Charest should be thankful he's not facing Duceppe
29/11/10 - What would an elected Senate look like?
24/11/10 - Why it's tough for Michael Ignatieff to straddle the centre
22/11/10 - Does the Tim Hortons crowd really vote Tory?
17/11/10 - Tories would be outnumbered by Liberals and NDP in snap poll
14/11/10 - Does easy access to Starbucks latte really make you vote Liberal?
11/11/10 - Saskatchewan voters flock to Brad Wall during Potash battle
07/11/10 - What Parliament would look like if only women voted
03/11/10 - Tories, NDP look secure in Manitoba but Vaughan will go down to wire
31/10/10 - Mild Tory pain means slight Liberal gain from stagnant electorate
24/10/10 - Struggling B.C. Liberals face overwhelming rise in NDP tide
17/10/10 - Harper holds ground against Ignatieff as Layton recovers from gun fight
14/10/10 - How a new centre-right party would reshape Quebec
07/10/10 - How Parliament would look if only youth voted
04/10/10 - NDP pain means Liberal gain with Tories still on track for minority
29/09/10 - Ontario Tories on track for best result since Mike Harris
27/09/10 - N.B. prediction: It's bad news for Shawn Graham

The Hill Times

29/04/13 - Polls point to opportunity for Trudeau Liberals
25/03/13 - Polls remain mixed for Mulcair after one year
25/02/13 - The danger in underestimating Trudeau
28/01/13 - Political consensus in Quebec goes missing
17/12/12 - After a rough year, how might the polls do in 2013?
26/11/12 - Tories have reason to worry about Liberal gains
29/10/12 - Provincial leadership races highlight challenges of federal Liberals
24/09/12 - For polls to tell us anything, they need to be put into proper context
17/09/12 - Did Quebec's election polls lie?
27/08/12 - Quebec election poses problems for federal parties
30/07/12 - Greens have come long way, but still have further to go
25/06/12 - Lessons of hypothetical polls for Trudeau leadership bid
28/05/12 - Three years out, polls still have something to say
30/04/12 - Blaming the polls misses the mark in Alberta
26/03/12 - Incumbents challenged from right in provincial showdowns
27/02/12 - Regional shifts suggest new battlegrounds
30/01/12 - Polls point to opportunity for next NDP leader
12/12/11 - Very little recognizable in today's political landscape
28/11/11 - Political theatre in the provinces with majority in Ottawa
31/10/11 - Provincial elections muddy methodological waters
26/09/11 - Polls have been surprisingly unchanged
27/06/11 - Liberals' last Quebec refuge under siege
30/05/11 - Tory majority in Ottawa and provinces could be coming
02/05/11 - Holy! Moly! What's with the polls?
28/03/11 - Harper and Duceppe well-positioned as campaign begins
28/02/11 - Ontario and Quebec the keys to Tory gains
31/01/11 - Election ready, but election willing?
20/12/10 - Prime Minister Harper's Conservatives extend their lead, for now
22/11/10 - Death, taxes, and a five-point Conservative lead

Le Devoir

04/05/11 - ThreeHundredEight.com - Une faille dans la matière première
30/04/11 - Qui sera chef de l'opposition officielle lundi soir?
27/04/11 - Les Québécois pourraient donner jusqu'à 20 circonscriptions au NPD
23/04/11 - Une percée du NPD pourrait procurer une majorité à Harper
15/04/11 - Les libéraux font des gains, mais le temps presse
09/04/11 - Harper flirte avec la majorité
02/04/11 - 151 conservateurs
26/03/11 - Le Bloc en position de gains
(All articles with Le Devoir)

The Huffington Post Canada 

15/05/13 - Polls spectacularly wrong as Clark crushes Dix
10/05/13 - Ontario poll suggests most don't want a spring election
08/05/13 - Trudeau attacks ads have failed to hurt Liberals: poll
06/05/13 - Campaign's last few days could prove decisive
01/05/13 - Poll suggests Penashue will be easily defeated in Labrador
29/04/13 - Stakes are high in BC leaders debate
26/04/13 - Trudeau's Quebec poll numbers suggest he could win back province
24/04/13 - Redford's popularity problem dragging down Alberta Tories
22/04/13 - BC NDP, Liberals off to bumpy start but NDP remains on top
19/04/13 - Poll suggests Trudeau's Liberals could take immigrant vote away from Tories
17/04/13 - Close Ontario poll suggests Hudak may be wise to gamble on election
16/04/13 - Ridings up for grabs in B.C. election
12/04/13 - Dix's NDP poised to defeat Clark's Liberals
09/04/13 - Poll suggests Trudeau is winning because of his dad, and Canadians don't mind
06/04/13 - Trudeau, Liberals face long road back to contention
05/04/13 - Poll delivers bad news for former Tory cabinet minister
02/04/13 - Poll suggests 'Trudeau effect' already boosting Liberals
28/03/13 - Poll suggests Harper in trouble even if NDP and Liberals don't co-operate
27/03/13 - Fight for second place may be only suspense left in LPC leadership
22/03/13 - Christy Clark's days likely numbered
19/03/13 - Cabinet shuffle? Harper may add fresh faces in advance of 2015 election
15/03/13 - Close Quebec poll suggests trouble ahead for Marois
12/03/13 - Atlantic Canada polls suggest battle brewing between NDP and Liberals
08/03/13 - Trudeau on track for first ballot win in leadership race
06/03/13 - Nova Scotia poll suggests Dexter has shot at re-election
01/03/13 - Canadians still favour immigration, but many want stricter policy
26/02/13 - Trudeau's Ontario poll numbers suggest he could win province
22/02/13 - Canada getting more liberal on Harper's watch, but Canadians think we're moving right
20/02/13 - Close Ontario polls suggest Wynne's government may survive
15/02/13 - Senate poll reveals support reform
12/02/13 - Trudeau's poll numbers suggest Canadians eager for change
08/02/13 - Polls show Clark isn't exactly in B.C.'s good books
06/02/13 - Northern Gateway pipeline poll reveals rift between B.C. and Alberta
01/02/13 - Poll shows Wynne may spell trouble for Horwath
29/01/13 - Poll shows Wynne will have tough time staying premier
25/01/13 - Poll suggests Harper will keep winning as long as rivals fail to corral supporters
22/01/13 - Polls show Harper's Conservatives widening lead over NDP
18/01/13 - Pupatello and Wynne favoured, but election hopes less certain
15/01/13 - Philippe Couillard could lead Quebec Liberals to victory
11/01/13 - Liberal ideology still dominates in Canada, poll finds
08/01/13 - NDP poll finds Canada is ready for Mulcair government
04/01/13 - Stephen Harper polls find Canadians are divided on PM's performance
25/12/12 - What Canada's political parties need to do in 2013
21/12/12 - How the parties fared in 2012
18/12/12 - NDP-Liberal alliance might still lose to Tories
13/12/12 - Poll puts NDP on Conservatives' tail
11/12/12 - Trudeau poll suggests Liberal leadership front-runner may be faltering
11/12/12 - Gen Y still believes in marriage, kids, and retirement
07/12/12 - Martime polls suggest incumbents are in trouble
06/12/12 - Gen Y in Canada: Taxes, tolerance, and voting top list of what makes a good citizen
04/12/12 - Kennedy favoured for leadership as Liberals surge in new poll
30/11/12 - Polls show Chow and Coderre could win in Toronto and Montreal
29/11/12 - Generation Y favours NDP over all other political parties
27/11/12 - Liberal leadership poll finds Trudeau dominant among challengers
23/11/12 - Tories, NDP, Liberals split national support evenly
21/11/12 - Millennials want to buy real estate despite obstacles: survey
20/11/12 - By-election battles shaping up to be closer than expected
01/11/12 - Conservative support dips in new poll as three-horse race takes shape
30/10/12 - NDP shouldn't worry about Bloc's Clarity Act stunt
26/10/12 - Poll finds Trudeau could reshape race in Quebec
24/10/12 - Poll results show Trudeau stacks up well on key issues
20/10/12 - Poll finds support for PQ policy, but not their government
16/10/12 - Iran attack poll finds Canadians and Americans don't agree
12/10/12 - Economy poll reveals Harper's advantage over Obama and Cameron
09/10/12 - Can anyone challenge Trudeau?
05/10/12 - Free trade poll finds Canadians divided on past deals
02/10/12 - Issues poll hints at motivation for Conservative policies
28/09/12 - Trudeau's style and likability could outweigh his inexperience
24/09/12 - Harper disapproval hits 50 per cent in new poll
21/09/12 - Ontario polls paint confusing picture of political landscape
18/09/12 - Polls tell very different stories as parliament resumes
13/09/12 - Poll reveals good news for provincial New Democrats
11/09/12 - Poll delivers bad news to Dexter and other Atlantic premiers
05/09/12 - How did the pollsters do?
04/09/12 - Quebec election polls predict PQ victory
04/09/12 - Clark, B.C. Liberal fortunes continue to sink
31/08/12 - Poll reveals typical Harper supporter
28/08/12 - Undecideds will likely pick Quebec winner
24/08/12 - NDP winning battle of the attack ads?
22/08/12 - Can the NDP and Liberals make gains in Conservative Alberta?
21/08/12 - B.C. Conservatives gain at Premier Clark's expense
21/08/12 - Debate may result in gains for Québec Solidaire at PQ's expense
17/08/12 - Polls show NDP gaining fround in B.C.
17/08/12 - Poll gives Harper and the Conservatives five point lead over NDP
16/08/12 - Calgary Centre by-election likely to be won by Conservative candidate, poll shows
14/08/12 - Quebec contest becoming three-way race
10/08/12 - McGuinty and Hudak headed for showdown
08/08/12 - Duchesneau's candidacy may force Charest to talk about corruption
03/08/12 - Clark's Northern Gateway strategy not paying off in polls
31/07/12 - Northern Gateway pipeline battle puts Harper in tough position
27/07/12 - Many parties have high hopes on eve of Quebec election
24/07/12 - Halifax gathering to expose rifts between provinces and Ottawa
20/07/12 - Nanos polls show re-shaping of political landscape
17/07/12 - EKOS poll finds potentially catastrophic collapse for Conservatives
13/07/12 - Charest may call early vote
10/07/12 - Etobicoke Centre by-election will be close, if it happens
06/07/12 - 2011 financial returns mark best year of fundraising for Tories
04/07/12 - Federal leaders' BBQ circuit
29/06/12 - Country favours mixed model system according to poll
27/06/12 - Quebec support for Harper Conservatives an uphill battle
22/06/12 - NDP beats Tories in first round of four-year battle
19/06/12 - Charest making gains while Mulcair maintains stranglehold
15/06/12 - Liberal race is Trudeau's to lose now
12/06/12 - Poll shows majority of Liberal supporters favour union with NDP
08/06/12 - Dexter Canada's least popular as three of four Atlantic premiers see drop in support
05/06/12 - Charest could call election amid protests and Charbonneau Commission
01/06/12 - Mulcair trip unlikely to put an end to his Dutch Disease strategy
28/05/12 - Poll finds strong support for Thomas Mulcair's party and positions
25/05/12 - Nanos finds young and old Canadians don't agree on country's priorities
22/05/12 - Polls find Quebec split about emergency law aimed at ending student protests
15/05/12 - Christy Clark would lose to NDP even if she united the right
11/05/12 - Why the NDP is hammering the Tories
08/05/12 - NDP wave's next destination may be B.C.
04/05/12 - Polls suggest Stephen Harper and Tories may have peaked in 2011
01/05/12 - Witmer's resignation could spell the end of Hudak's leadership
27/04/12 - A look at key ridings likely to be affected by redrawing of map
24/04/12 - What does the vote mean for Alberta?
20/04/12 - Polls may embolden NDP's Andrea Horwath
17/04/12 - Conservative tie with NDP may be broken in the suburbs
13/04/12 - Polls show Liberals lagging behind Mulcair's NDP
11/04/12 - Poll shows Tories closing gap with Wildrose
04/04/12 - F-35 report from Auditor General unlikely to turn Canada against Tories
03/04/12 - Alberta, BC, Quebec may all see incumbents booted from office
30/03/12 - NDP tied with Tories in new poll after Mulcair takes reins
26/03/12 - NDP leader must do more than secure Quebec to become PM
23/03/12 - Where in the country are each of the NDP candidates strongest?
23/03/12 - Which NDP candidate has the best hope of beating Stephen Harper? 
20/03/12 - B.C. Premier poised to be swept from office by Adrian Dix's NDP
16/03/12 - Canadians feel county would be just fine without Quebec
13/03/12 - Quebec polls suggest a three-way federal battle
09/03/12 - Poll finds Tory support unchanged despite plurality of Canadians blaming Tories for robocalls
05/03/12 - Polls find support for Conservative unchanged despite allegations
02/03/12 - Budget cuts supported by most Canadians, according to new poll
28/02/12 - Poll finds majority think online surveillance bill shouldn't become law
24/02/12 - Quebec NDP members may punch above their weight
21/02/12 - Clark needs a hit in lead up to 2013 election
17/02/12 - PQ and Liberals move past CAQ
14/02/12 - Poll reveals Mulcair first choice to replace Layton
10/02/12 - NDP falls behind Liberals in Quebec
09/02/12 - Census reveals likely Tory gains from newly created seats
08/02/12 - Quebec poised for another major political swing?
03/02/12 - Conservative fundraising lead on other Canadian parties narrows
31/01/12 - NDP slide in Quebec continues amid leadership race
27/01/12 - Conservative support falls as Liberals make gains in new federal polls
24/01/12 - Tories open up lead over Liberals in Ontario
20/01/12 - Bob Rae more popular than Stephen Harper in new polling
17/01/12 - François Legault's party losing support in Quebec
13/01/12 - Rae has led party to gains ahead of convention
10/01/12 - Good news for Alison Redford, bad news for Jean Charest
06/01/12 - Another new party set to enter crowded political scene in Quebec
03/01/12 - New Year's resolutions for the federal parties
29/12/11 - 2012 to be dominated by Tories' spending plans and NDP leadership race
23/12/11 - Polls indicate Alberta's PC leader likely to remain as premier
20/12/11 - Mulcair leads by wide margin in new poll
16/12/11 - NDP support collapses in Quebec without Layton
12/12/11 - New Bloc Québécois leader puts party on collision course with NDP
09/12/11 - Conservatives up in new poll despite recent troubles
06/12/11 - Two types of green dominate NDP debate
01/12/11 - Liberal Party back in second place in poll
29/11/11 - Ontario and Alberta
25/11/11 - BQ race may not be as insignificant as it seems
22/11/11 - Another major incumbent victory in Vancouver, but city isn't attached to status quo
18/11/11 - NDP's opposition to Keystone project could hurt party's chances in Alberta
15/11/11 - Tories would lose majority if election were held today, polls suggest
10/11/11 - Liberal Party primaries could give Grits much-needed boost
08/11/11 - High stakes for Pauline Marois and Jean Charest in Bonaventure
04/11/11 - What a victory for the Saskatchewan Party means federally
01/11/11 - Gilles Duceppe could lead PQ to majority government
28/10/11 - Political turmoil in Quebec
25/10/11 - Polls suggest next Alberta election will be one to watch
21/10/11 - Will probe help buoy Jean Charest's flagging support in the polls?
18/10/11 - Electoral stakes high for Tories in allocating $35 billion for naval refit
14/10/11 - Green Party loses support provincially after electing first ever MP Elizabeth May
12/10/11 - Vote marks a new era of politics for Newfoundland and Labrador
07/10/11 - Divide between rural and urban voters key to Tory loss and Liberal minority
04/10/11 - Dalton McGuinty's Liberals seize momentum ahead of vote
30/09/11 - Liberals still a force to be reckoned with in Canada's smallest province
27/09/11 - New polls reveal a close race that may favour the NDP's Greg Selinger
23/09/11 - NDP may hold balance of power in Ontario
20/09/11 - Alberta's crowded political centre gives Wildrose reason to drink
16/09/11 - NDP leadership race: Brian Topp or Thomas Mulcair?
14/09/11 - Incumbents leading in provincial elections
09/09/11 - NDP poised to make history in Newfoundland and Labrador
06/09/11 - The unstoppable Stephen Harper
02/09/11 - Tim Hudak's hope for majority seen slipping in new polls
30/08/11 - Without Layton, Harper's leadership numbers jump in Quebec
26/08/11 - Bloc Québécois leadership: Does anyone want this job?
24/08/11 - Sovereignty turmoil alters political landscape for Quebec premier
19/08/11 - PEI, Newfoundland and Labrador fall elections: Close races, ridings to watch
16/08/11 - Manitoba, Saskatchewan elections: Ridings to watch on the Prairies
12/08/11 - Ontario election: ridings to watch, close races to follow
08/08/11 - Stephen Harper honeymoon over? Liberals gain in new Nanos poll, while NDP drops in Quebec
05/08/11 - Nycole Turmel and the NDP in Quebec
03/08/11 - Tim Hudak still the man to beat in upcoming Ontario vote
29/07/11 - Wildrose Party plummets in Alberta poll, Progressive Conservatives surge
26/07/11 - Bob Rae goes looking for 2.2 million missing Liberal Party voters
22/07/11 - Jason Kenney, immigrants, and the new Conservative base
19/07/11 - Can Green Party candidates breakthrough in provincial elections this fall?
15/07/11 - Tim Hudak, Progressive Conservatives open double-digit poll lead over McGuinty Liberals
12/07/11 - Winning Quebec: Harper Conservatives duke it out with NDP for province's affections
08/07/11 - Elections and the premiers: Why Dalton McGuinty is worse off now than four years ago
05/07/11 - Harper Conservatives ride high in poll: Tories corner vote among religious, older, male Canadians
28/06/11 - Prince William for King: Poll finds Canadians prefer Will over Charles, but still split on monarchy
24/06/11 - NDP Quebec support grows: Liberals and Bloc Quebecois could be swept from the province
21/06/11 - NDP/Liberal merger: Uniting parties could mean another Conservative majority, if history is a guide
17/06/11 - Jean Charest and Dalton McGuinty may suffer as desire for change migrates from Ottawa to provinces
14/06/11 - Dalton McGuinty vs. Brad Wall, Greg Selinger and Kathy Dunderdale: Ontario's incumbent premier faces long odds while his peers soar
09/06/11 - Harper and Quebec: How Jean Charest and the Parti Québécois implosion could spell trouble for the Tories
08/06/11 - NDP gains in polls across Maritimes: Orange wave washes ashore in Atlantic provinces
02/06/11 - Parliament opens: With majority government, Harper has nothing to lose

Media Magazine

Winter 2012 - Are some pollsters "snake-oil" salespeople? (PDF)

Le Huffington Post Québec

12/07/12 - Élections estivales: peut-être la dernière chance de Jean Charest
12/04/12 - La CAQ s'effondre, le PLQ remonte, le PQ bien en selle
21/03/12 - Le PQ obtiendrait 63 sièges au Parlement
27/02/12 - Le Parti québécois majoritaire, selon un nouveau sondage
10/02/12 - Le NPD perd des plumes au Québec
09/02/12 - François Legault perd des appuis dans sa course au pouvoir

L'actualité

03/09/12 - Une femme au pouvoir
31/08/12 - Le Parti québécois en route vers un gouvernement minoritaire?
28/08/12 - Le PQ peut toujours espérer une majorité, mais la marge s'étiole
27/08/12 - Vers un gouvernement majoritaire péquiste?
22/08/12 - Les libéraux vraiment en avance?
17/08/12 - La CAQ progresse aux dépens du PQ
16/08/12 - Jusqu'à 70 sièges pour le Parti québécois
15/08/12 - Un gouvernement majoritaire pour le PQ
10/08/12 - Legault grimpe, les libéraux reculent
09/08/12 - La CAQ gagne du terrain; le PQ toujours en avance
08/08/12 - Ça chauffe dans la centre du Québec
02/08/12 - Un départ raté pour François Legault?
01/08/12 - Le PQ minoritaire avec 60 sièges

Past Election Results

2008




2006




2004




2000




1997




1993

Changes

As you can see, I am turning the site into the Canadian federal projection version. The layout you see here will be the general layout. The projections I have up there now are actually the 2008 electoral results (rough in terms of the popular vote in the Prairies, Atlantic Canada, and the North). Once the site is finished, I will start with the actual projections.

Result vs. Projection - Last Part

I've updated the Montérégie and Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean pages. My final tally is 54 for 66, or 82%. I should point out that I only projected close ridings. If I would've projected the ridings that were absolutely assured to go Liberal or PQ, I would have been closer to 90%.

One close projection in those two pages, that for St-Hyacinthe where the PQ won with 38.1% instead of the projected 38.2%.

And that ends my coverage of the 2008 Quebec election. In the next few days the page will be changed to reflect my next project: the next Canadian federal election. Stay tuned!

Result vs. Projection - Part Four

The riding pages for Laval, Mauricie, and Montréal have been updated with comparisons of results to projections. I had one close call in Laval-des-Rapides where the PLQ won with 43.6% of the vote instead of the projected 43.4%. I had one perfect projection in St-Henri-Sainte-Anne, where the PLQ won with 45.9% - just as projected. The running tally is now 41 for 50, or 82%.

Result vs. Projection - Part Three

I've updated the riding pages for the Gaspésie, Lanaudière, and Laurentides with a comparison of riding-by-riding projections to the results. No real close calls but 9 for 12 overall. So far, in all of my individual riding projections, I am 32 for 39 (82%).

Result vs. Projection - Part Two

The projections vs. result information has been updated on the pages for Centre-du-Québec, Chaudière-Appalaches, and Estrie. ThreeHundredEight.com was 13 for 13 on those projections, bumping up the total so far to 23 for 27 (85%).

Three of the projections in Estrie were very close. In Sherbrooke, I projected Jean Charest to take 45.9% of the vote and he actually got 45.2%. In Saint-François I projected the Liberal would have 46.4% and he instead received 47.0%. And in Orford, I projected Pierre Reid would have 43.3% support and he actually got 43.5%.

Result vs. Projection - Three Regions

The pages for Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Bas-Saint-Laurent, and Capitale-Nationale have been updated with a comparison of the projections to the results. So far, my tally is 10 for 14 or 71%, with one perfect projection of the winner's percentage in Portneuf.

I should note that individual riding projections were more of an afterthought. They didn't play a role in my national projection.

The National Projection vs. Results

The results last night confirm that my system works. Here are the results with the difference in my projection in brackets. I am quite proud in accurately projecting the two major parties so closely, and in opposition to how the other projectors saw things.

PLQ - 66 seats (-2)
PQ - 51 seats (-2)
ADQ - 7 seats (+3)
QS - 1 seat (+1)

And now the popular vote:

PLQ - 42.05% (-0.85)
PQ - 35.15% (+1.99)
ADQ - 16.35% (+0.89)
QS - 3.79% (-0.19)
PVQ - 2.18% (-1.65)

All of my projections were within 2% and the projections for the PLQ, ADQ, and QS were within 1%. The QS projection was even within 0.2%! The over-achievement of the PQ surprised me, both as a projector and a political junkie, while the under-achievement of the PVQ should not have come as a surprise considering they only nominated 80 candidates. In the future, I will have to take that into account. A lot of the people who told pollsters they would vote PVQ probably didn't even have a PVQ candidate in their riding.

A few words about ThreeHundredEight vs. the other projectors. As far as I am aware, there are only five who made regular projections using a projecting model. In terms of seat projections, ThreeHundredEight was the closest with an 8-seat margin. Next closest was that of the Geloso-Breguet blog, who had a 10-seat margin. They do have the distinction, however, of being the only one to predict 7 seats for the ADQ. Third place goes to DemocraticSpace with a 12-seat margin. Fourth goes to Quebecpol with a 14-seat margin, and last to HKDP with a 24-seat margin.

It should also be noted that ThreeHundredEight was the only one to project the Liberals with less than 70 seats and a small majority, and the only one to project the PQ with more than 50 seats and a strong opposition.

Some of those projectors have since shown that with the actual popular vote results, their model gave a very similar result to what happened last night. I'm not quite sure what that says. Any projecting model has to take into account the possibility that the polls are inaccurate, which is what my model did.

As for the popular vote, the title goes to DemocraticSpace with a 5.0-point margin. ThreeHundredEight is a close second with a 5.5-point margin, and Geloso-Breguet in third with a 10.3-point margin. The other two did not make popular vote projections.

In the coming days, I will take a look at my individual riding projections, region-by-region.

I made some predictions yesterday for stories to watch. How did they turn out?

I didn't think that the ADQ would become a recognised party in the National Assembly, giving him 4:1 odds. It didn't happen.

I gave Charest 5:4 odds that he'd form a government. He did.

I gave the PQ 3:1 odds of earning more than 34%. They did.

I gave QS 3:2 odds that they'd improve their vote from 2007. They did. I gave QS 3:1 odds that Khadir would be elected in Mercier. He was. And I have 4:1 odds that David would be elected in Gouin. She wasn't.

I gave the PVQ 2:1 odds that they'd improve on 2007. They didn't.

Finally, I gave a 65%-70% turnout 3:2 odds. I gave 3:1 odds for 60%-65%. The result? 57%. Quite a surprise.

The Results as They Come In...

23h00 - I don't mean to brag (well, maybe I do), but out of the five projectors on Quebecpolitique.com I am currently the closest. I am 8 seats off, Geloso-Breguet is 10 seats off, DemocraticSpace is 12 seats off, Quebecpol is 14 seats off, and HKDP is 24 seats off. I was the only one to project that the PLQ would have less than 70 seats and the PQ more than 50, and all of my popular vote projections were within 2%. I'd have to say that it has been a success.

I will take a closer look at the results and my projections tomorrow and throughout the next week. Good night!

22h30 - Mario Dumont will resign as leader of the ADQ. Certainly the saddest moment of the evening for the simple fact that Dumont has been a fixture of Quebec politics for over 14 years. Suffice to say, this sort of makes the next election difficult to project!

22h00 - The numbers are still looking good. The PLQ is still currently at 65 seats, only three off of my projection. But virtually all of the other projectors had the PLQ at over 70 seats. The PQ is at 52 seats, only one off of my projection of 53, and the ADQ is at 7, three more than my projection. QS surprised me with their win in Mercier which Radio-Canada is now announcing. Incredible.

My popular vote projection is pretty close as well. The PLQ is right now at 41.53% (about 1.4% off of my projection), the PQ at 35.4% (about 2.2% off of my projection), the ADQ at 16.62% (about 1.1% off of mine), QS at 3.88% (only 0.1% off of my projection), and PVQ at 2.14% (1.7% off of mine). Being within 2% on all counts pleases me greatly.

21h00 - So far, I'm quite pleased with how my projections are panning out. As of this moment, Radio-Canada is projecting 65 seats for the PLQ (I have 68), 51 for the PQ (I have 53), 9 for the ADQ (I have 4), and 1 for QS (I have 0). The PLQ number will probably bump up to nearer to what I have projected, and the ADQ will probably drop down a little bit. Mercier is the race to watch.

The popular vote is also relatively close to my projection, as of this moment. Radio-Canada has the PLQ at 41.91% (I have 42.90%), the PQ at 35.21% (I have 33.16%), the ADQ at 16.24% (I have 15.46%), the PVQ at 1.94% (I have 3.83%), and QS at 3.80% (I have 3.98%). We can't forget these results are preliminary, but so far I'm pleased. I'll update in an hour.