Thursday, November 12, 2009

Projection: 140 CPC, 92 LPC, 49 BQ, 27 NDP

Only one poll this week, so no major changes. But new polls replace old polls, and the weight of new polls makes old polls less important, so every little bit makes a difference.The Conservatives gain one seat and are now at 140. The Liberals lose one and are now at 92. The Bloc and NDP remain steady at 49 and 27 seats, respectively. Very little movement in the popular vote, as the Liberals lose only 0.1 points and the Greens gain 0.1 points.

A mixed update for the Conservatives, who lose 0.2 points in Alberta and the Prairies and 0.1 points in British Columbia. They gain 0.2 points in Quebec and Atlantic Canada and 0.1 points in the North. They also gain a seat in Ontario, though they remain stuck at 39.1%.

The Liberals are down a little bit everywhere except in Alberta. They're down 0.3 points in Quebec, 0.2 points in the North and the Prairies, and 0.1 points in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Their seat loss comes in Ontario.

The NDP is either steady or making gains. Their support hasn't changed in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. They've made a gain of 0.3 points in the Prairies and 0.1 points in the North and British Columbia.

The Bloc is unchanged. The Greens make gains of 0.3 points in Quebec, 0.2 points in the Prairies and Alberta, and 0.1 points in Ontario and British Columbia.

Things seem to be solidifying at their current level, which is getting closer and closer to the 2008 result. The Liberals have seemed to hit their floor, the Conservatives are falling back from their highs, and the NDP is clawing its way back up to 2008 levels.


  1. Latest Nanos:

    Con: 38% (-1.8%)
    Lib: 28.8% (-1.2%)
    NDP: 17.9% (+1.3%)
    BQ: 9.3% (+0.4%)
    Grn: 5.9% (+1.3%)

    Not exactly a surprise

  2. PS: Its notable that this Nanos poll is essentially identical to Ekos - except that he has the Green Party about 5 points lower with each of the three national parties being about a point and a bit higher.

  3. Interesting read in the Nanos POll as to who would make the better PM: Harper 34.8; Iggy 17.7.

  4. Very strong NDP numbers for a pre-writ period.

    I'm going to make a prediction:

    At some point during the campaign I expect there will be a near convergence (where the NDP and Liberals are about to trade poll positions) that will spark a media narrative about the Liberal collapse and Jack Layton's surprising strength. This will cause a virtuous cycle that will further help the NDP.

    In fact, I would be surprised if the NDP strength costs Harper his majority. Of course, as i've said, a near majority is good enough because their will inevitably be floor crossers and by-election picks ups from resignations.

  5. DL - That's very typical of Nanos polls compared to Ekos polls. The two different polling nethods (Ekos uses an automated call with answer prompts, while Nanos uses a human caller with no answer prompts) seem to explain the difference nicely, but it's always interesting to see where that Green vote disappears to, because that seems to change from poll to poll.

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  7. Also, it's worth noting that this is the worst performance by the Liberals in a Nanos poll since the the last election.

    Because (I suspect) of that chronically low Green number, Nanos polls are generally quite friendly to the Liberals, and this is the first time this year that Nik has put their support under 30%.

  8. Interesting poll result - the Conservatives no longer have a 10 point lead, but nobody's even close when you look at who is the preferred PM.

    I've got a bit more thought on that here. If you're interested...

    I couldn't sleep, so I figured, "Why not post something?"

    Have a great weekend everyone!


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