Monday, February 15, 2010

Leadership Poll from Nanos

Here's a new leadership poll from Nanos Research.

Nanos compares this poll to one taken in December (that I do not recall). On trust, Stephen Harper is first with 25%, followed by Jack Layton at 20.8%, and Michael Ignatieff at 10.4%. Worth noting is that Layton and Harper have swapped four points since that last poll, in December.

For competence, Harper has 33.6%, Layton has 14.2%, and Ignatieff has 13.9%. A gain of 3.4-points by Layton is the only one outside of the MOE.

As for who would be the best Prime Minister:

Stephen Harper - 32.0%
Jack Layton - 18.1%
Michael Ignatieff - 16.1%
Elizabeth May - 6.9%

The changes from December are all within the MOE, though Ignatieff and Harper are down and Layton is up.

Harper's best result came in the Prairies (48.4%), and his worst was in Quebec (22.2%). Layton's best was in British Columbia (23.8%) and his worst was in the Prairies (12.4%). Ignatieff's best was in Ontario (19.4%) and his worst was in British Columbia (8.7%).

That the Liberals are still polling so highly hints at a few things: people like their local Liberal candidate or the Liberal 'team' more than they do the leader, or people see the Liberals as the only real alternative to the Conservatives no matter who is the leader, or people don't personally like Ignatieff by will vote for him anyway. It is impossible to know what is the truth, but what we do know is that people aren't supporting the Liberals specifically because of Ignatieff.

The "Best PM" track has been updated. Harper and Layton are up two points. Ignatieff is stuck at 15%.