Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Nanos Poll: 0.5 Conservative Lead (down 5.9)

So, Nanos Research has come along with a new poll and boy howdy it's an interesting one.Nanos has been out of the federal polling game for the summer (lazy buggers) so our last point of comparison is their May 29 to June 3 poll. Since then, the Conservatives have lost 2.3 points and now stand at 33.3%. The Liberals, meanwhile, have gained more than the margin of error and are up 3.6 points to 32.8%. In statistical land, that is a virtual tie. Or a six point gap. But nevertheless, it helps confirm EKOS's findings from last week. It's on!

The New Democrats are way down, however, dropping 5.1 points to 15.6%. The Bloc Québécois is at 12.1% (gaining more than they did in Quebec itself, oddly) while the Greens are up 1.1 to 6.2%. Remember that Nanos doesn't prompt, which is one of the reasons we get low Green numbers from them.

The biggest news of this poll has to be Ontario, where the Liberals have gained 10.8 points and now stand at 43.2%. It's a little high, but the trend is good for Michael Ignatieff. The Conservatives are down seven points to 36.2% while the NDP is down 5.9 points to a very dangerous 13.2%.

In Quebec, the Bloc is up 2.1 points to 40.7% while the Liberals are up 2.7 points to 27.3%. Both parties would be happy with those results. The Conservatives are down 3.7 points to 15.6% and the NDP is down three points to 10.8%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are down 9.9 points to 29.4% and the Liberals are up 8.1 points to 29.4%. The NDP is down two points to 25.6% and the Greens are up 3.7 points to 15.5%. Odd numbers.

Atlantic Canada is fun. There, the Tories are up 11 points to 45.3% while the Liberals are at 38.7%. That is a little hard to believe, but helps off-set the BC result. The NDP is down 12 points to 13.6%, while the Bloc is at 1.2%. Huh? Yeah, the Bloc is at 1.2% in Atlantic Canada. I'm going to say that's a typo, but if you add up all the numbers in Atlantic Canada you get to 100%, so perhaps some jokester in Newfoundland (I know who you are) said they were voting Bloc.

Nanos infuriatingly combines Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba into one mega region, meaning I can't use the numbers in my projection. But there the Conservatives are at 52.8%, up 11, while the Liberals are down six to 23.9% and the NDP is down two to 22%.

Because of the Mega Prairies, I have to use the site's current projection for Alberta and the Prairies to get a seat projection here. Using those numbers, the Conservatives win 64 seats in the West and North, 38 in Ontario, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and 5 in Quebec for a total of 119.

The Liberals win 60 seats in Ontario, 19 in Atlantic Canada, 18 in the West and North, and 17 in Quebec for a total of 114.

The Bloc wins 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP wins 13 seats in the West, 8 in Ontario, and one apiece in Quebec and Atlantic Canada for a total of 23.

Really bad numbers here for the NDP, relatively great numbers for the Liberals. The Tories still have the edge, but no one believes they could govern very long with a plurality of five. This poll is just one poll, but it does give a little more weight to the close polls we've seen lately from EKOS and Harris-Decima. It should make for an interesting September.


  1. Actually.. not to get all technical on you.. but the Conservatives would not have a "majority of 5" here.. they'd have a "plurality of 5".

  2. Whoopsie, you're right. Fixed, and thanks.

  3. First poll out since last weeks Ekos "shocker" and it confirms Ekos.

    Done about the same time as at least one of the Ekos polls so we can accept they are both correct.

    I'm a little unsure about the Maritimes numbers as I'm sure that high Tory one is "optimistic" ?

  4. What if all of the Conservative gains out west were all in Alberta, where they can only increase seat count by 1 at most? How would that change the numbers? (Or more likely, if the change was more like the ekos poll?)

  5. It would not help much, as the Liberals did not do well in the West in the EKOS poll. I don't have the numbers with me, but it would probably mean fewer Tory and Liberal seats and more NDP seats, so maybe not much different.

  6. I would have figured a Liberal minority with those results but I guess the high Conservative number in Atlantic Canada, not Maritimes Peter, helped them.

  7. I detect a trend. The libs are on a roll, and according to Nanos its a cumulative thing. The polarizing issue is the long gun registry which the libs are capitalizing on. The NDP is losing support and up to half their seats in Ontario where it is popular, so that's why some rural NDP MPs are switching their vote. I think with the maritime anomaly and factoring in Alberta distortion in the Al/Sask/Man results, the poll actually masks how bad the tory result is.

  8. Saw pollster Nanos on PowerPlay yesterday afternoon.

    He said that Ignatieff's personal numbers were completely unchanged by the summer tour and are still horrid.

    So what happens when the LPC numbers go down ?

    Does it spark a fresh round of recriminations ? Do the Liberals keep their new found discipline or implode ?

    Key test will be 4 by-elections this fall.

    (BTW i'm not all that interested in dead of summer polling. People are so tuned out or on vacation. Last year the Liberals were also tied at this time and then the Tories shot up once people tuned in.)

  9. eric rw - agree for the most part but that anomaly in the Atlantic should be balanced against the strong Lib numbers in BC. I don't think either are real, but the two cancel each other out nationally; so Nik's overall numbers are probably pretty close to the truth.

    That said this is the 3rd poll by three different companies over the past week showing a dead heat between the CPC and the LPC, with the NDP taking a hit. Pretty safe to assume that an election held right now would mirror these results. And yes this is not good news for the CPC or NDP right now.

  10. house polling effects.
    tory 35-lib 30-ndp 15


    And as peter says, it confirms the ekos poll, and proves that the tories are again gaining ground on the liberals.

  11. Eric isn't part of New Brunswick very much a French speaking area. Is that where the Bloc votes could have come from?

  12. Peter, northern New Brunswick is francophone, but the Bloc doesn't run outside of Quebec and few, if any, Acadians support Quebec sovereignty.

  13. Perhaps Iggy's summer tour didn't do him any good, buit it appears Harper's northern tour didn't help him any, either.

    I quite liked his northern tour. Arctic sovereignty is important to me, and it was fun to see Harper let his hair down and go off riding that ATV (much to the confusion of the press in attendance).

    Still, let's see what the autumn holds. It would still appear that no one wants an election, so if we get one it will likely be a surprise to at least one of the major parties.

  14. ...and few, if any, Acadians support Quebec sovereignty.

    That might have something to do with Jacques Parizeau's comments from the other decade that any Francophones living outside of an independent Quebec would be 'dead ducks'.

    It is pretty much acknowledged by Francophones that Quebec separation would result in Canada abandoning official bilingualism & protection of the French language & culture; and have no love for pequists for this very reason.

  15. Actually Ira Harper's personal numbers are up in the latest Nanos poll.

    By a wide margin he remains the most trusted and most competent leader along with being seen as having the best vision for Canada.

    Ignatieff is down slightly on all three measures, however, the change is within the MOE.

  16. Based on the support demonstrated by this poll, does anyone want to start the Bloc Québécois de la Terre-Neuve? A few proposed planks of the platform:

    - Newfoundland would merge into a sovereign Québec. Newfoundland has been borrowing Labrador rent-free from Québec since 1927. It is only fair that Labrador finally be returned to Québec, with the rest of Newfoundland as interest.
    - Solve the Chuchill Falls dispute. With Newfoundland dissolved into Quebec, this dispute disappears. A win-win situation for everyone.
    - Improve knowledge of French in Newfoundland. Right now, Newfoundland has the fewest number of mother tongue French-speakers of any Canadian province, at less than 0.5% of the population. By absorbing Newfoundland into Québec, the new nation will have an almost 80% francophone population, an immediate vast improvement.
    - More cod. A sovereign Québec would result in an increase in the number of cod off the coast of Newfoundland. Our slogan would be "More Morue".

  17. Yvon Tripper,

    I'd say it would be a better solution if the rest of Canada absorbed Quebec.

    What that you say?
    That already happened!
    All's well then; carry on.

    BTW By your own type of discrimination, I will now count every extra anglo in the province of Quebec an "improvment".

  18. I think Yvon Tripper was probably kidding ...

    Regarding absorption, that was tried with the short lived province of Canada.

    Its probably a last ditch solution to preventing Quebec seperation.

    It would work by throwing a bunch of Ontario into Quebec and then mandating that the national assembly (which would then be called the provincial legislature located in Kingston) be 50% English and 50% French.

    The hilarious gridlock and acrimony would prevent any movement towards independence.

  19. "but the Bloc doesn't run outside of Quebec "

    I have the oddest memory that in fact they did run a couple of candidates years ago in that part of New Brunswick ? Could be 15 or more years back. I also thought they actually got one elected. This all took place probably well before the referendum.

  20. No, the Bloc doesn't run outside of Quebec and never has.

  21. This is great news for the Conservatives!

  22. HD confirms... that the tories aren't really sliding....


    or 35.5-31-16 adjusted for house polling. Matches this Nanos poll almost perfectly.

  23. Oh wow. Apparently you CAN trust this government with your money:

    No sponsorship scandal here folks. That's according to early leaks (various ministries already have parts of the report.)

  24. If you look closely at the year over year numbers in the Nanos poll you may observe that the Conservative numbers are underestimated by as much as 5 or 6 percentage points and the Liberals overestimated by roughly the same amount until just before polling day. Nanos's polls are all about soothing the nerves of the Liberal party, or possibly wishful thinking, or perhaps make-believe, that too is a possibility--take your pick.

  25. Shadow,

    "No sponsorship scandal here folks. That's according to early leaks (various ministries already have parts of the report.)"

    You're WELCOME!!! Now, how about being an ace and getting this Prime Minister to treat every major issue in the House as a confidence vote. After all, you know how I'm itching for an election -- and looking for the first and EARLIEST opportunity to scratch.

  26. Ron every two weeks or so there's a confidence bill anyways, for supply.

    Any thoughts on whether Ignatieff will be propping up the gov't this fall ?

    Or do you think they might try and make the NDP be the ones to do it now ?

  27. Shadow,

    "Or do you think they might try and make the NDP be the ones to do it now ?"

    Not being in the loop -- who knows...

    I can only tell you how I would play it: if the NDP does not do a 180 on a whipped vote on the long-gun registry, I would go for the one, two punch. Tar and feather the urban NDP MPs with some of their rural colleagues' vote and then go aggressive on sinking the government within a month or so -- thereby forcing Jack and the New Democrats to prop up Harper (again) to save their collective hides from the disagreeable prospect of an election where a large seat loss is probable for them given their planned conduct.

  28. Don't think Layton wants his caucus decimated. He'll do the propping for now as long as Harper doesn't do anything foolish as he is so prone to do.

  29. Speaking of opening mouth to change feet:

  30. Shadow said...
    Actually Ira Harper's personal numbers are up in the latest Nanos poll.

    In fact given the margin of error, Harper's personal numbers are statistically unchanged.

    However that's good news / bad news for the PM. Though his personal numbers are steady and well above his rivals, the party is still in a statistical tie with the Liberals - and that's confirmed by three different pollsters now. If that part isn't troubling for him, it should be. If I were the PM I would concentrate on doing something to change that particular dynamic.

  31. Earl that article by Travers is ridiculous. He's just repeating NDP talking points. A couple of rural NDP MPs have jumped on the Breitkreuz remarks as a thin fig leaf to cover their flip flop on the registry.

    More principled NDP members like Nathan Cullen have ignored the remarks. They are completely irrelevent and have had ZERO effect on the registry vote.

    T of KW you're incorrect.

    Harper is up 4.1 points on the leadership index score. The MOE is 3.3 for the total leadership score.

    On the individual indexes the jump is less than the MOE but you don't total them all up for the final score (ie. its not +-9.9 because the error cancels each other out.)

  32. So how well is giving Quebec City $200 million to build a new hockey arena going to fly out West?

    Edmonton and Calgary have two of the oldest buildings in the NHL.

  33. I hope Albertans see the Quebec arena for what it is. Vote buying.

    I hope Albertans also recognise that buying those votes is probably the only way the CPC is going to win a majority.

    I further hope that this government never funds a sports arean again. There is literally one example in all of North America of a publicly funded sports venue producing a positive return for the government that funded it: the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome in Minneapolis.

  34. So how well is giving Quebec City $200 million to build a new hockey arena going to fly out West?

    for Quebec? probably not that good.... but then given the other money involved, 200 mill is a pittance.

    For hockey in Canada? for another Canadian hockey team? That is going to fly better.

    And despite the media, the quebec arena isn't the only piece of infrastructure being floated.

    There is a possibility of a 450million multipurpose facility in Regina with the local football team being the major lessee.

    Stimulus money went to countless projects of that type. Not to mention several other systems of grants (of which my local arena in a town of 2000 was a recipient).

    An odd question you seem to be trying to spin to damage the government and peoples feelings about Quebec there Morakon.

    Might as well ask why Saskatchewan gets transfers from the federal government to run some of its health programs?? Its a stupid question in a vacuum without the understanding that everyone else seems to get a bunch too.

    I learned something once from one of my favorite teachers. Fair and Equal are not the same thing.... and people who speak to one or the other... quite often have the two confused.

  35. Morakon,

    "So how well is giving Quebec City $200 million to build a new hockey arena going to fly out West?"

    Not that well considering that the Conservative vote in the area will actually go down in the next election!

    That should go over big with "the core"...

    What some people won't do to make political asses of themselves. Read PMO.

  36. The Quebec arena needs a corporate sponsor.

    If they can auction off the naming rights that would help save the federal government some $$$.

    They're already going to give somewhere between $80-100 million for that arena in Sask.

    Quebecor Stadium, home of the Nordiques, could be a vote winner in Quebec.

    And the negative reaction could be muted if funding for a Western arena was announced at the same time.

  37. Come on Shadow. Have you ever heard of anyone being able to best Marcel Aubut. That guy is one tough cookie. The man always ends up a winner in any transaction.

    Next to Bettman, Aubut will also call the tune on an NHL team returning to Quebec City. If it's a win for Marcel -- it'll be a win for a team.

    As for the political upside: there won't be any. The Bloc is once again finding new favour in the region. My prediction: Josée has a 50-50 chance of keeping her seat; Blaney, Petit and Boucher are gone; only Gourde still looks solid in my book -- and the Conservative ally, André Arthur is already history as we speak. Look for the Bloc to pick up his riding.

  38. Spend, spend, spend.

    Nothing like buying peoples votes with their own money, even when we have a massive defict. At least the Libs did it in surplus times.

    I didn't know some of you guys were in favour of more stimulus. How quickly we let our principles crumble for power. That's why we're left with two Liberal parties.

    Wonderful. Try and justify Federal spending on sports arenas... "Conservatives".
    (not you Ira)

  39. Chris Selley with a well balanced article on Marc Emery.

    From the article:

    "America tends to get what America wants. And what America wants — officially, anyway — is to continue prosecuting what Conrad Black memorably called the “corrupt, sociopathic war on drugs.”

    Well said Lord Conrad. May you never see the wrong side of prison again.

  40. AJR79 i'm pretty sure Ira summed up how fiscal conservatives justify this move - if it means a majority then go for it.

    I'm as fiscally conservative as they come but I actually like sports/culture so i'll justify it on other grounds as well.

    Some of your criticisms of this move are off base.

    "Nothing like buying peoples votes with their own money"

    If the people support the notion of public private partnerships for large multi-use facilities isn't that democracy ?

    Aren't we always complaining that people don't get enough say in how their money is spent ?

    Vancouver, Hamilton, and Quebec City all have gotten funding or are getting it. So I just hope that means that Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg also get their fair share.

    "...we have a massive defict. At least the Libs did it in surplus times."

    That's backwards.

    Building when the economy is hot means paying higher wages because there is more demand for labour and supplies.

    Now is the perfect time to do something like this. And borrowing costs are very, very low for the federal government.

    Putting this on provincial and municipal balance sheets would actually cost tax payers MORE because they don't have the feds sterling credit rating.

    "I didn't know some of you guys were in favour of more stimulus."

    I don't think anyone is calling this stimulus spending....

    "How quickly we let our principles crumble for power."

    Yep if it means a majority to push through the hidden agenda.

    "That's why we're left with two Liberal parties."

    Again, things will change with a majority under the threat of the Wildrose going federal if they don't.

  41. Hmm. I guess knowing my EI Premiums ( yes it's a tax ) are going to rise every Jan 1 for the forseeable future I have a problem spending tax dollars on arenas/stadiums to help out millionaire owners save a couple hundred million. There are a lot of places that are going to be looking for the same kind of cash.

  42. Shadow,

    You got one thing right. By betraying Conservative principles from 2006-2010, this Prime Minister has alienated his base to such a considerable degree that the Wildrose Alliance WILL GO federal.

    That my friend is manna from heaven for Liberals. It means a Conservative rump in the Commons along with a much stronger federal Wildrose. (Where have we seen this move before?!)

    It also means another Liberal government is in the offing as soon as the arena cheque clears!

  43. If you think funding these areanas will actually get you anywhere near a majority, then go for it. I think that's delusional

    I also think you'll be unpleasantly suprised, at the can of worms you are opening.

    Nice fantasies about Wildrose BTW.

    If we had a Danelle Smith type leading the Federal Conservatives, we wouldn't even be discussing the possiblity.

    We'd all be pulling behind her, instead of a fractured mess.

  44. Even if the arena gets built, and the Nordiques come back... What on earth makes you think the people of Quebec, will give any credit at all, to the Feds?

    If this is vote buying, I think it's a total waste. If anything I think this will lose the CPC votes.

    Time will tell, but I have a feeling you may see a climb down on this in the next few days.

    It's just too crazy, in our present fiscal circumstances.

  45. "They're already going to give somewhere between $80-100 million for that arena in Sask. "

    No announcement to that effect has been made.

    However when asked about that on Thursday in Saskatchewan, Harper did say that if the Quebec arena was funded the federal government would have to take a look at funding others like the Regina multipurpose facility or the Edmonton arena.

    "I didn't know some of you guys were in favour of more stimulus."

    I am not.. I was pointing out that in an attack on Quebec for funding they might (or might not) receive; that funding for such projects has gone to many places in the last 2 years, not to mention all the programs and grant monies on top of the stimulus. That should not be taken as a go ahead to spend more money, only that in my opinion Quebec didn't deserve the tarnish of this particular attack.

    "Hmm. I guess knowing my EI Premiums ( yes it's a tax ) are going to rise every Jan 1 for the forseeable future"

    EI premiums had been frozen for 2 years. I am not real enthused about the mandatoriness of the program except that forcing people to actually pay specific dollars for this specific program should keep them off the welfare dole when they find themselves jobless and not smart enough to have protected themselves. If people took responsibility for themselves we wouldn't need (or want) a nannystate.

  46. If Bernier is paving the way for a future leadership run, then he is doing a hell of a job IMO.

    He's got my attention anyway.

  47. Thanks Tof KW. As for the quebec city arena, as I said last night before Chantal(I couldnt get my comment through-password problems)Ebert, the tories are dead in Q and they are in a lose-lose situation. If they dont fork over, they lose the seats, and if they do, SaskAlbMan will want $ for their arenas they are building and their whole fiscal responsiblilty hypocrisy is exposed. By the way, the Royal Conservatory in TO (where there are no seats to win) is still waiting for a $12mil topup from the feds for their $160 mil reno, and the tories are prepared to spend $200 mil for a hockey rink in Q and possibly $$$ms more for other arenas? I'm thinking damage control trumps ideology. I'm smelling desperation

  48. By flirting aggressively with the idea of forking out tens of millions
    of public dollars to finance the project, Stephen Harper and his
    Conservatives have manoeuvred themselves into a lose-lose


  49. Chantal Hebert misses the third option in her lose-lose scenario.

    JP Blackburn has already hinted at it actually and that is to make private sector involvement a precondition of funding.

    Best course of action is to take Bernier up on his "time out".

    1) Deny current funding request as presently structured but leave door open to revisit issue.

    (Satisfies base.)

    2) Study precedents, look at what money is available, and communicate clear rules and criteria for getting the money including the need for private sector involvement. Cap federal share at 30% funding (not 45% Charest wants) but offer low interest long term loans to munis to cover the difference.

    (Satisfies media.)

    3) If Quebec City's satisfies all the conditions then give them the money.

    (Satisfies Quebec City).

  50. "Chantal Hebert misses the third option in her lose-lose scenario."

    The real toxic thing here is the involvement of Pierre Karl Peladeu (sp)

    This business with Fox North is resonating with the public in the worst possible way.

    75.000 signatures against it and climbing every hour indicates the Canadian public does NOT want anything approaching Fox News USA, especially if they are expected to pay for it through their cable fees.

    In my case if they do get that license then I will cancel my cable, PERIOD !!

    Meanwhile Kory baby has demonstrated just how bad Sun Media is!!


    Greg Weston
    Eric Margolis

    The latter being a foreign correspondent of impeccable standards!

  51. Peter the application for a must carry signal was denied.

    So lets stop this fearmongering about our "cable fees". Never mind the fact that CBC gets something like 60 billion and CTV gets around 40 billion a year in cable fees.

    As for that petition, i'm sure you are aware that its run by an American. How many of those signatures are even Canadian ? How many are even real ? That thing has been debunked.

    BTW have you ever heard of the free market Peter ?

    If people don't want to buy something they won't. If people do then they will.

    How will we know if Canadians want Sun TV or not if we don't let them have a chance to air it and see if they fail or suceeed ?

    What you're suggesting, that somebody must prove they have a market for a product before they introduce it, is a command and control Soviet style economy.

  52. "
    As for that petition, i'm sure you are aware that its run by an American."

    Again you LIE !! The guy running it is a Canadian !! If you stop listening to Dimitri and actually look for yourself you would know this!! The guy was on P & P if you don't know.

  53. "Peter the application for a must carry signal was denied. "

    Only by the CRTC. Cabinet has yet to overrule but you can be assured it will !! Good to our friends we are !!

    Quite bluntly your whole post could only have come from the PMO. Only they would lie to that extent.

  54. *That should have read million above.

    Peter go look up Do some research. The guy behind it is American George Soros. Its ran out of America.

    Why Americans thinks they can tell us what we can and cannot watch I don't know!

    Bottom line is that SunTV is coming to a tv screen near you on jan. 1.

    I look forward to another news source.

  55. "Bottom line is that SunTV is coming to a tv screen near you on jan. 1. "

    Guess what big mouth. No license has been granted. The hearing is in Nov!

    Plus Sun is trying for mandated cable coverage !!


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