Is this the tipping point? Or just the latest tipping point?
Below are the unadjusted averages of the polls conducted so far in the campaign, by week. I'll update Week 5 and 6 numbers as more come in.
Week 6: NDP 32.4% LPC 30.9% CPC 28.1% GPC 4.6% BQ 3.4%
Week 5: NDP 32.4% LPC 29.9% CPC 27.2% GPC 5.1% BQ 4.1%
Week 4: NDP 33.9% CPC 28.4% LPC 27.9% GPC 5.0% BQ 3.8%
Week 3: NDP 32.7% CPC 29.4% LPC 28.0% GPC 5.1% BQ 3.9%
Week 2: NDP 31.8% CPC 29.8% LPC 27.5% GPC 5.4% BQ 4.6%
Week 1: NDP 34.7% CPC 29.6% LPC 26.8% BQ 4.6% GPC 4.0%
A trend away from the Conservatives and towards the Liberals is definitely taking place in this campaign. But it seems that the narrative of the NDP-Liberal switchers does not particularly hold. Since Week 2, the New Democrats have been steady. The gains the Liberals have made seem to have come from the Conservatives.
Friday, September 11, 2015
- The Poll Tracker has been updated, along with the riding projections. My analysis of the weird day of polls is up on the CBC here, and you can catch my on Power and Politics on CBC News Network tonight.
- I also wanted to address how I am handling Nanos's daily tracking poll. Two things: every three days, there is a sample that is independent of a previous sample. When that happens, the latest poll and the poll done three days previously are given 100% of the weight they would normally get. Between those three days, though, every new poll is weighted at 100% and the intervening polls, which overlap with the newest numbers, are weighted at 33% of their normal weight. So what this means is that, right now, the September 8-10 poll is weighted at 100%, as is the September 4-6 poll. The polls in between those dates (there was no polling on the 7th) are currently given a weighting of 0%. When the next poll, the September 9-11 poll, comes out, the September 8-10 poll will be reduced to 33%, and the September 9-11 poll will get 100% weighting. This will continue until we reach the next three day sample of September 11-13, and so on, and so on.
- Two new polls this morning. Nanos is showing some movement, particularly compared to their last independent three-day sample. Compared to those numbers, the Conservatives are up significantly, the Liberals less so, and the NDP is steady. The other poll, by Forum, shows the NDP steady, the Liberals down, and the Conservatives up. Tory rebound? I'll be updating the Poll Tracker today, but haven't determined yet whether or not to wait for the EKOS poll that is supposed to be out in a few hours.
- In case you missed it yesterday, Saskatoon–University is my latest riding to watch.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
- Saskatoon–University is my latest riding to watch, a tight Conservative-NDP battle with a Liberal spoiler in 2015's new battleground of Saskatchewan.
- My analysis of the latest Nanos numbers, and how it has budged the Poll Tracker into a narrow Liberal lead in the seat projection. The riding projections have also been updated.
- I tallied the August federal numbers for the monthly averages. Doesn't matter much now, but will one day when we look at the long term trends.
- I mentioned it yesterday, but if you haven't noticed there is now an interactive map of the projections up on the projections page! Thanks very much to Stephen McMurtry, who put the map together.
- Hier, sur La croisée en Alberta: Des sièges conservateurs albertains en jeu.
- I did double podcasting duty yesterday. First, the new episode of the Pollcast is up, with guests David Akin (of Sun Media) and Christian Bourque (of Léger). We go over the state of the race at the midpoint of the campaign. I did the same, more briefly, with Chris Hall on his mid-week The House podcast.
- Your daily Nanos, with the Conservatives up.
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
- Check out the riding projections page. There is a little surprise there for all of you!
- The Poll Tracker has been updated, and the riding projections as well.
- I did an overview of the refugee crisis polls for the CBC. The upshot? Conservatives less supportive of doing more than Liberal and NDP voters, which explain the difference in positioning of the three parties.
- New numbers from Nanos and Ipsos. The latter shows a stable, close race. Nanos shows the Liberals up, the NDP and Conservatives down.
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
- Here's my analysis of where things stand as chapter one ends and chapter two begins.
- The Poll Tracker has been updated with the new Nanos poll. Shockingly for all the scoffing about Forum, Nanos's numbers are probably most similar to their most recent poll. Recall, those Forum numbers were 36-32-24. Nanos has it as 33-31-26.