tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6233765560947587462024-03-05T16:32:40.006-05:00ThreeHundredEight.comÉrichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comBlogger1732125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-18043434156590453882021-06-22T09:46:00.004-04:002022-12-03T08:51:24.058-05:00The Writ has dropped!<p><span style="font-family: verdana;"> (Dusts off the old blog)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Hello, everyone! It's been awhile. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">But, I'm back and returning to my roots with the launch of my new website, <a href="https://www.thewrit.ca/" target="_blank">The Writ</a>! It'll be a little bit like what ThreeHundredEight.com used to be, but also a little different. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;">Please check it out. In the meantime, this website will continue to function and be accessible as an archive of my older work.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: verdana;"><br /></span></p>
<iframe src="https://www.thewrit.ca/embed" width="480" height="320" style="border:1px solid #EEE; background:white;" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-11371106374876134132017-04-14T08:19:00.001-04:002017-04-14T08:25:32.392-04:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.threehundredeight.com/2017/04/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-polls-when-i.html">So long and thanks for all the polls</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">When I started this site in October 2008, it was out of my admiration for the work that was being done by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight during that year's U.S. presidential election. His site sparked a passion for </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">political polling, election forecasts and psephology in me — and it has now become my full-time work.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">After developing this site from amateurish to slightly-less-amateurish, I was lucky enough to secure regular freelance work with <i>The Globe and Mail</i> and <i>The Hill Times</i> in 2010 and <i>The Huffington Post Canada </i>in 2011, as well as election-related work with some French-language media outlets.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Things changed in 2014 when I begin working with the CBC in the run-up to the 2015 federal election. Since the beginning of that campaign I've been working out of the newsroom with the Parliamentary Bureau in Ottawa.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">It's been a life-changing move, as well as an honour and an inspiration to work with such a talented and professional group of journalists every day.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Now, regular readers might have noticed that the activity on this site has died down in recent months. My work with the CBC has curtailed the time I've been able to invest in this website.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But now that I have accepted a full-time position with the Parliamentary Bureau, the time has come to cease operations of this site.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I hope readers will continue following my work with the CBC. In addition to your local CBC radio and television stations and CBC News Network, here is where you can find me:</span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Person/%C3%89ric%20Grenier">You can find my most <b>recent articles</b> and work here</a>, as well as on <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics">the CBC Politics page</a>.</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">You can subscribe to my podcast, <b>The Pollcast</b>, here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">you can find and stream all of the episodes here</a>.</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">ThreeHundredEight.com will be kept online and accessible as an archive and a reference, but it will no longer be updated.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I owe a debt of gratitude to my readers over the last nine years. Thank you for visiting ThreeHundredEight.com, for giving me your support and encouragement, for keeping me accountable and always striving to get better.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I've loved this site, but it is now time to move on to the next chapter. I'm excited about it.</span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-58191911289863931232017-03-31T08:19:00.005-04:002017-03-31T08:20:57.663-04:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-akin-1.4047412">The Pollcast: What to watch for in Monday's byelections</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The five federal byelections being held on Monday are not expected to be nail-biters. They are taking place in traditionally safe seats for the incumbent Conservatives and Liberals.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But there are still some things to watch for when the votes are counted.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-akin-1.4047412">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The byelections are being held to fill the seats vacated by Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent), Mauril Bélanger (Ottawa–Vanier), John McCallum (Markham–Thornhill), Jason Kenney (Calgary Midnapore) and Stephen Harper (Calgary Heritage).</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In the 2015 election, the closest contest of these (Markham–Thornhill) was still decided by a margin of 23 points — so a change in the seat count is not expected.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But there are a few questions that the byelections can help answer. Will the Liberals be hurt by the controversies surrounding the nomination processes in Markham–Thornhill and Saint-Laurent? Has the Conservative leadership race helped attract new support to the party, or has it put voters off? And will the NDP do better than the last byelection that was held, when the party finished with just one per cent of the vote?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I'm joined by the National Post's David Akin to discuss.</span><br />
<br />
<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-akin-1.4047412">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-70532868009274038262017-03-28T10:10:00.003-04:002017-03-28T10:10:24.470-04:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-endorsements-1.4042721">Erin O'Toole winning Conservative caucus as it shuns leadership front-runners Bernier, O'Leary</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">More than two-thirds of the Conservative caucus has gotten behind one of the 14 candidates for the party's top job. Most are supporting either Erin O'Toole or Andrew Scheer — and O'Toole has now surpassed Scheer as the favourite of Conservatives in the House of Commons, even luring two of Scheer's former backers to his side.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But polls and other metrics suggest Maxime Bernier or Kevin O'Leary are leading the pack. If either of them wins, they could find themselves at the head of a Conservative caucus that overwhelmingly preferred someone else.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-endorsements-1.4042721">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span><br />
<br />Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-12481505938376385672017-03-26T11:05:00.003-04:002017-03-26T11:05:43.037-04:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-youth-debate-1.4039873">NDP leadership debate to focus on young Canadians and how to win them back</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">New Democrats vying for their party's leadership will gather in Montreal on Sunday for a debate focused exclusively on issues relating to Canada's youth — a demographic that swung in large numbers from the NDP to the Liberals in the 2015 federal election.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">It'll include the four candidates currently in the running for the party leadership: Ontario MP Charlie Angus, Manitoba MP Niki Ashton, Quebec MP Guy Caron and B.C. MP Peter Julian.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ndp-youth-debate-1.4039873">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-16448474571807831492017-03-23T15:48:00.003-04:002017-03-23T15:48:50.043-04:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: "helvetica neue" , "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-cochrane-lunn-cullen-1.4037663">The Pollcast: The politics of the budget</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">In the budget presented by Finance Minister Bill Morneau on Wednesday, the Liberal government laid out its plans for the future of Canada's economy, with a focus on skills training and innovation.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">But some of those plans extend to well after the 2019 federal election. The calculations the Liberals have baked into the budget could be at the whim of what happens in the interim, including changes in the world economy and the unpredictability of Donald Trump's presidency.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-cochrane-lunn-cullen-1.4037663">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">So how does the budget position the Liberals politically? Does it give them something to sell to voters between now and 2019? Will the government's plan to stay in deficit well into the next decade hamstring the Liberals and give the opposition parties a vulnerability to exploit?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">To break down the politics of Budget 2017, I'm joined by the CBC's David Cochrane, Catherine Cullen and Susan Lunn.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-cochrane-lunn-cullen-1.4037663">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-722942392646513782017-03-23T10:19:00.001-04:002017-03-23T10:19:09.827-04:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-index-mar23-1.4036072">Leitch slides, O'Leary gains in Conservative Leadership Index</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Kellie Leitch is falling back and Kevin O'Leary is moving forward in their bids to lead the Conservative Party, according to the latest update to the Conservative Leadership Index.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Fellow contenders Andrew Scheer and Erin O'Toole also improved their standings in the index thanks to some key political endorsements.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The index is a composite of four leadership race metrics (endorsements, contributors, fundraising and polls) that has been developed to help gauge the state of the 14-candidate race to replace Stephen Harper as the party's permanent leader.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-index-mar23-1.4036072">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-33945402897040555342017-03-20T07:29:00.003-04:002017-03-20T07:29:57.754-04:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ndp-donors-membership-1.4026749">Alberta, Quebec could carry more weight in NDP leadership race than in 2012</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">When New Democrats last voted to select a new leader in 2012, most of the party's eligible voting members were in British Columbia and Ontario. An analysis of NDP donors suggests these two provinces will again carry the most weight in this year's leadership vote, but that Quebec and Alberta might be more important than they were five years ago.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The party did not provide a breakdown of its current membership, but looking at the regional distribution of NDP donors provides clues to how the profile of that membership might have changed since 2012 — and what that might mean for the four candidates currently in the running.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-ndp-donors-membership-1.4026749">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-85169626339859173322017-03-15T15:38:00.000-04:002017-03-15T15:38:02.946-04:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-maclachlan-housser-1.4025974">The Pollcast: The race for the NDP leadership is on</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The four candidates for the NDP leadership debated for the first time on Sunday. The event kicked off a race that has been dormant for nearly a year. It won't come to a conclusion until October, when New Democrats decide who should replace Tom Mulcair as their leader.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The debate was a collegial affair. But did it provide any clues as to how this campaign might play out for the next seven months?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Unlike the Conservative leadership race, which has 14 candidates in the running, so far the NDP has a more manageable group to showcase: MPs Charlie Angus, Niki Ashton, Guy Caron and Peter Julian.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But that group may grow soon.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">To help navigate the NDP leadership campaign, I'm joined again by NDP insiders Sally Housser of Navigator and Robin MacLachlan of Summa Strategies.</span><br />
<br />
<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-maclachlan-housser-1.4025974">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-66742430583260359592017-03-14T10:26:00.005-04:002017-03-14T10:26:40.838-04:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/grenier-bc-polls-caution-1.4022397">John Horgan's NDP leads the B.C. polls, if you believe them</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The provincial election in British Columbia is now less than two months away. And that means the polls are back.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After the failure of the polls in the 2013 vote, British Columbians might be forgiven for looking at them with skepticism. But the performance of the polls since 2013 suggests there is no reason to assume they are unreliable or that British Columbians are somehow unpollable.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Nevertheless, there is justification for looking at the latest numbers with a fair bit of caution.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/grenier-bc-polls-caution-1.4022397"><br /></a></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/grenier-bc-polls-caution-1.4022397">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-19628173519524369992017-03-10T08:34:00.002-05:002017-03-10T08:34:26.791-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-thomson-brown-1.4016173">The Pollcast: Is Jason Kenney's bid to unite the Alberta right about to begin?</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If Jason Kenney is named the next leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservatives on March 18, it could mark the end of the once dominant Alberta PCs — and the beginning of a campaign that could result in a single Alberta Conservative Party taking on the governing New Democrats in 2019.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But while the chances of Kenney succeeding in achieving his short-term goal look good, his longer term aim of merging the PCs with Wildrose, a party led by Brian Jean, the leader of the Official Opposition in the Alberta legislature, will not be so simple.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">To help break down the state of Alberta politics and what to expect in the coming months, I'm joined by Alberta pollster Janet Brown and Graham Thomson, columnist for the Edmonton Journal.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-thomson-brown-1.4016173">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-16080961087284278282017-03-09T09:25:00.003-05:002017-03-09T09:25:41.376-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-index-mar9-1.4013601">Maxime Bernier, Kevin O'Leary lead Conservative leadership field, data suggests</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With less than two months to go before voting begins for the Conservative Party leadership, Maxime Bernier and Kevin O'Leary are the front-runners, according to an analysis of endorsement, fundraising and polling data.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Bernier narrowly leads O'Leary based on a composite of four metrics (endorsements, fundraising, contributors and polls) that estimates how much support each candidate would likely have on the first ballot if the leadership vote were held today — call it the Conservative Leadership Index.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-index-mar9-1.4013601">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-22640125849660356902017-03-03T08:11:00.003-05:002017-03-03T08:11:44.366-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-quarterly-polls-feb2017-1.4005495">Liberal support slides to lowest levels since 2015 election</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Support for Justin Trudeau's Liberals has sharply declined over the last three months, dropping to its lowest levels since the last federal election.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The party has taken a hit in the polls in every region of the country, boosting both the Conservatives and New Democrats as a result. But despite the governing party's worsening fortunes, the Liberals still have as much support today as they did when they secured a majority government in October 2015.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-quarterly-polls-feb2017-1.4005495">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-87650237754870954762017-03-02T09:29:00.002-05:002017-03-02T09:29:18.614-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-powers-rogers-1.4004719">The Pollcast: 3 months to go in the Conservative leadership race</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Kevin O'Leary was not one of the 13 candidates participating in the Conservative Party's leadership debate in Edmonton Tuesday, due to what he called its "bad format."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Those who did participate, struggled to be noticed on the cluttered stage — and with less than three months to go before the ballots are counted, candidates need to get noticed.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-powers-rogers-1.4004719">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">O'Leary's decision to avoid the debate might have been the quintessential front runner's move, but O'Leary is far from being a runaway favourite for the leadership. Maxime Bernier is also widely seen to be in a strong position, while candidates such as Andrew Scheer, Lisa Raitt, Kellie Leitch, Erin O'Toole and Michael Chong are trying to secure second choice support that could keep them in the running.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Calls for the other candidates in the race to step aside are beginning to grow.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But will they be heeded?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">To help lay out where things stand at this point in the race, I'm joined again by Conservative insiders Chad Rogers of Crestview Strategy and Tim Powers of Summa Strategies.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-powers-rogers-1.4004719">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-42002484535317576422017-03-01T09:27:00.003-05:002017-03-01T09:27:21.562-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-debate-strategies-1.4003149">Conservative leadership debate in Edmonton the latest to showcase political manoeuvring</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Conservative leadership debates have not featured any of the mythical knockout punches that are supposed to win elections, but the subtle (and not so subtle) manoeuvring that will help decide the outcome has been on full display — most recently during Tuesday night's event in Edmonton.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And that includes Kevin O'Leary's decision to skip it.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Since the first official debate in Saskatoon on Nov. 9, the candidates have been up against each other 11 times. The party will hold one more official debate, and more local events are likely to be organized.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-debate-strategies-1.4003149">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-65464913531195004482017-02-23T16:26:00.000-05:002017-02-23T16:26:13.558-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-foisy-vastel-1.3994805">The Pollcast: The Bloc Québécois looks for a leader</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Conservatives and New Democrats have been in the midst of leadership contests for months, but the Bloc Québécois, which kicked off its leadership race at the beginning of February, will reach the finish-line first, on April 22.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Calling it a race, though, might be generous — because it is setting up to be a coronation.</span><br />
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<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-foisy-vastel-1.3994805">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Bloc has been without a permanent leader since Gilles Duceppe resigned on election night in 2015. There are two candidates officially in the running: Félix Pinel, who ran as a candidate for the party in the last election, and Martine Ouellet, an MNA sitting in Quebec's National Assembly.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Ouellet, who twice ran unsuccessfully for the leadership of the provincial Parti Québécois, left the PQ caucus after making her candidacy official and is sitting as an independent. If she wins the vote — she has the support of most of the Bloc's 10-member caucus — she intends to continue sitting as an MNA in Quebec City until the province holds its next election in October 2018.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Will Ouellet face any serious obstacles in her run for the Bloc Québécois leadership, or is her victory all but assured? How would Ouellet balance being a federal party leader and a provincial legislator at the same time?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And after two elections in which the once dominant Bloc has seen its support slide to less than 20 per cent in the province, does the party still have relevance in Quebec's federal political scene — or a future, with support for sovereignty at new lows?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">To discuss the race and the future of the Bloc, I'm joined by Radio-Canada's Philippe-Vincent Foisy and Le Devoir's Marie Vastel.</span><br />
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<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-foisy-vastel-1.3994805">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-6214759438442067952017-02-23T09:16:00.002-05:002017-02-23T09:16:16.504-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-recognition-1.3994208">Kevin O'Leary's Conservative leadership rivals struggle to raise profiles</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If Kevin O'Leary does not win the Conservative leadership race in May, polls suggest most Canadians will have just one question after someone else is announced as the party's next leader.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Who?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Abacus Data recently polled Canadians on their views of some of the leading candidates for the party's top job. It found that a majority of Canadians either had no strong opinion or no opinion at all about Maxime Bernier, Lisa Raitt, Kellie Leitch and Andrew Scheer.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-leadership-recognition-1.3994208">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-52599339623205867052017-02-21T09:18:00.002-05:002017-02-21T09:18:19.182-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-party-line-voting-1.3984516">Liberal backbenchers, Tory leadership hopefuls among Parliament's biggest dissenters</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Members of Parliament might feel pressure to toe the party line and maintain party unity in the House of Commons. But a few MPs have stood out for their willingness to rise and vote "Yea" when the rest of their colleagues vote "Nay."</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Still, this breaking of the ranks is rare: even the biggest rebel in Parliament votes along party lines 87 per cent of the time.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-party-line-voting-1.3984516">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-71412570936973389262017-02-16T17:06:00.004-05:002017-02-16T17:06:46.255-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-cullen-1.3985674">The Pollcast: Behind the scenes of the Conservative leadership race</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With 14 candidates in the running, more than a year of campaigning and over a dozen debates to be held before the votes are finally counted on May 27, the Conservative leadership campaign poses unique challenges to journalists.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">How do we balance coverage when there are so many candidates vying for attention? Which events are the pivotal ones in the race? And how do we gauge how the actual decision makers — expected to be no more than 150,000 Conservative party members that are eligible to vote — plan to cast their ballots?</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The CBC's Catherine Cullen, who has been covering the leadership race since its beginning, joins me to discuss these challenges and what she is hearing and seeing behind the scenes on the campaign trail.</span><br />
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<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-cullen-1.3985674">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-46008318413680145762017-02-15T11:14:00.004-05:002017-02-15T11:14:28.705-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-regions-donors-1.3982061">Bernier's broad donor base still tops the Conservative leadership field</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Maxime Bernier's donor base remains the broadest and deepest among the contestants for the Conservative Party leadership, according to an analysis of fundraising data from the fourth quarter of 2016 — before Kevin O'Leary threw his hat into the ring.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But while the data provides no clue of O'Leary's impact, it does suggest that none of the other candidates have the diversified regional backing needed to win a vote that will give equal weight to each part of the country.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-regions-donors-1.3982061">You can read the rest of the article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-48232496760567932012017-02-14T09:26:00.003-05:002017-02-14T09:26:29.889-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-west-island-debate-1.3980855">Kevin O'Leary's conservatism challenged in Conservative leadership debate</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Conservative leadership contestants turned on Kevin O'Leary in a testy debate on the West Island of Montreal, questioning his conservatism and claiming the businessman and television personality has no plan to back up his rhetoric.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But O'Leary, participating in his second debate after attending one in Halifax earlier this month, did not strike back at his rivals, focusing instead on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the need to grow the Conservative Party base.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-west-island-debate-1.3980855">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-8119100689360387952017-02-10T14:39:00.003-05:002017-02-10T14:39:16.132-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-census-riding-growth-1.3974605">Census shows Conservatives still hold sway in Canada's fastest growing regions</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">With the West leading the country in population growth and Atlantic Canada stagnating, the Conservatives continue to have the most to gain from the demographic trends revealed in the latest census release from Statistics Canada.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And while the numbers are a mixed bag for the governing Liberals, the changing population figures in Canada's 338 ridings point to potential difficulties for the NDP.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The electoral map won't be redrawn until after the next census in 2021, so at least one more election will be decided using the current boundaries. But it's better for a party's future to be on the right side of the demographic trends.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-census-riding-growth-1.3974605">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-78035566998063939752017-02-09T17:59:00.003-05:002017-02-09T17:59:38.192-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-wherry-omalley-1.3973920">The Pollcast: How electoral reform fell apart</a></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">During the last campaign and in the months that followed, the Liberals pledged that the 2015 election would be the last fought under the first-past-the-post electoral system.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">That promise no longer stands. So what happened?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-wherry-omalley-1.3973920">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">After more than a year of speculation, debate, committee hearings, town halls and an online survey that was roundly panned by critics, the Liberals decided to abandon their promise to change the way Canadians vote.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">What was behind the decision to renege on that campaign promise? Did electoral reform ever stand a chance of succeeding?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">To break it down one last time, I'm joined by the CBC's Aaron Wherry and the Ottawa Citizen's Kady O'Malley. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-wherry-omalley-1.3973920">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-18996043951260775312017-02-07T10:22:00.001-05:002017-02-07T10:22:16.239-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-second-choices-1.3963984">Fundraising data suggests Bernier could benefit most from ranked Conservative leadership vote</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Conservative leadership race will be decided by a preferential ballot, so the candidate with the broadest support and widest acceptability stands the best chance of winning. An analysis of fundraising data in the campaign suggests Maxime Bernier shares the most contributors with other candidates, giving him a potentially decisive edge.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But Bernier's advantage might have been disrupted by the entry of Kevin O'Leary into the race in January.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-second-choices-1.3963984"><br /></a></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><i><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-second-choices-1.3963984">You can read the rest of this article here.</a></i></span>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-623376556094758746.post-20730238862191793372017-02-02T09:09:00.001-05:002017-02-02T09:09:06.844-05:00<h3>
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-adams-coletto-1.3960405">The Pollcast: Does leadership race polling mean anything?</a></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Kevin O'Leary is the favourite for the Conservative leadership, says one poll. Only he can defeat Justin Trudeau, says another. A majority of Canadians aren't familiar with most of the 14 contestants in the running, according to a third.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">But do these polls tell us much about who will actually win the Conservative leadership race?</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-adams-coletto-1.3960405">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">While most leadership race polling takes all Canadians or supporters of a party as its sample, in the end the only people who will cast a ballot in the upcoming Conservative and NDP leadership votes are party members.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">A small and dwindling portion of the population, members are difficult for pollsters to find — so the potential for pollsters to gauge a leadership race correctly is limited.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">And it isn't much easier for those in the midst of a leadership campaign.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">To discuss the challenges of polling a leadership race, as well as the role of the media in reporting on these polls, I'm joined by Paul Adams, associate professor of journalism at Carleton University and David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.</span><br />
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<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-pollcast-adams-coletto-1.3960405">You can listen to the podcast here</a>, <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/radio/podcasts/current-affairs-information/the-cbc-election-pollcast/">subscribe to future episodes here</a>, and <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/topic/Tag/Pollcast">listen to past episodes here</a>.</i>Érichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.com