A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models and how the probability forecasts are calculated can be here.
The projections are subject to the margin of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent inability for the projection model to make perfect estimations of real-world dynamics. The projection ranges are a reflection of the degree of uncertainty intrinsic in polling, while the ranges in the forecast are a reflection of the plausible amount of change in support that can be expected between now and the election, as well as the error that polls have made in the past. The probabilities are based on the past performances of the projection model and of how polls have differed from election results in the past, with consideration being made for the amount of time between the polls being conducted and the election being held.
The following chart lists the polls currently included in the projection model, as well as the weight each poll carries.
These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding. It may be necessary to right-click and open the chart in a new window in order to be able to read it.
Vancouver Island (14): Alberni-Pacific Rim, Comox Valley, Cowichan Valley, Esquimalt-Royal Roads, Juan de Fuca, Nanaimo, Nanaimo-North Cowichan, North Island, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Parksville-Qualicum, Saanich North and the Island, Saanich South, Victoria-Beacon Hill, Victoria-Swan Lake
Metro Vancouver (40): Burnaby-Deer Lake, Burnaby-Edmonds, Burnaby-Lougheed, Burnaby North, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Coquitlam-Maillardville, Delta North, Delta South, Fort Langley-Aldergrove, Langley, Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, New Westminster, North Vancouver-Lonsdale, North Vancouver-Seymour, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody-Coquitlam, Richmond Centre, Richmond East, Richmond-Steveston, Surrey-Cloverdale, Surrey-Fleetwood, Surrey-Green Timbers, Surrey-Newton, Surrey-Panorama, Surrey-Tynehead, Surrey-Whalley, Surrey-White Rock, Vancouver-Fairview, Vancouver-False Creek, Vancouver-Fraserview, Vancouver-Hastings, Vancouver-Kensington, Vancouver-Kingsway, Vancouver-Langara, Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, Vancouver-Point Grey, Vancouver-Quilchena, Vancouver-West End, West Vancouver-Capilano, West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
B.C. Interior and North (31): Abbotsford-Mission, Abbotsford South, Abbotsford West, Boundary-Similkameen, Cariboo-Chicotin, Cariboo North, Chilliwack, Chilliwack-Hope, Columbia River-Revelstoke, Fraser-Nicola, Kamloops-North Thompson, Kamloops-South Thompson, Kelowna-Lake Country, Kelowna-Mission, Kootenay East, Kootenay West, Maple Ridge-Mission, Nechako Lakes, Nelson-Creston, North Coast, Peace River South, Peace River North, Penticton, Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Prince George-Mackenzie, Prince George-Valemount, Shuswap, Skeena, Stikine, Vernon-Monashee, Westside-Kelowna