A record of forecasts vs. results can be found below - the barometer has yet to make a wrong call in 11 federal and provincial by-elections.
What the By-Election Barometer is
The By-Election Barometer tracks all scheduled and upcoming federal and provincial by-elections. The percentages shown in the charts represent margins, colour-coded according to the standards adopted by this site. The first set show the results of the last two elections.
The second set of margins are those that the projection model churns out when each regional/provincial poll is applied, using the same system as ThreeHundredEight's standard seat projection model. These are a way to demonstrate what might be expected in the riding, based on regional trends. The rolling 30-day average calculates an unweighted average of the last 30-days of regional polling.
The third set of margins, when available, represent the results of actual polls of the riding that have been released.
Finally, ThreeHundredEight's Forecast is calculated by taking the projected range of results from the average of the last 30 days of polling, including any polls done for the riding itself, and comparing how the ranges for each party overlap. The amount of overlap that potentially puts a party in a position to win is then tallied, the result being a percentage "chance" of that party winning the riding.
A Strong result means a 95% to 100% chance of winning, Likely is a 75% to 94% chance, Lean is a 60% to 74% chance, and Toss-Up means the chances of a party winning are 59% or less.
The Wildcard section describes any factor that could make the result unpredictable.
What it isn't
The By-Election Barometer is not a poll, the section titled "Margin after application of swing from regional polls" is not a list of riding polls, and the 30-day average is not a projection. By-Elections are notoriously hard to call, and the Barometer is not a tracking of actual voting intentions. The forecast is also not an opinion. As always, I am tied to what the numbers show.
Upcoming By-Elections
A by-election has been called in the Newfoundland & Labrador riding of Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair for June 25, 2013, and another has been called in Westside-Kelowna for July 10, 2013. By-elections have yet to be called in the Ontario ridings of Windsor-Tecumseh, Ottawa South, and London West, the Manitoba riding of Morris, and the federal riding of Bourassa in Quebec.
Duncan won Windsor-Tecumseh and its predecessor ridings by large margins in the past, though that shrank to only 10 points in the 2011 election. With the Liberal vote having dropped in most polls since the election, the New Democrats could be able to wrest the riding away.
The only riding-specific poll released so far, by Forum Research, gave the New Democrats 42% of the vote to 32% for the Liberals on a generic ballot. The Tories finished third with 19% (the poll was conducted Feb. 7 and surveyed 403 residents of Windsor-Tecumseh).
The poll shows that a candidate like Sandra Pupatello, on the other hand, could retain the riding for the Liberals. Pupatello won't be running, but that doesn't mean the Liberals won't be able to find someone of similar calibre to carry the party banner. It would help if they find a strong candidate, as otherwise the riding could be lost to the NDP.
But it remains a TOSS-UP (NDP/OLP), and very much so - the model currently gives the NDP a 52% chance of winning and the Liberals a 48% chance.
Forecast history: Was STRONG NEW DEMOCRAT on March 4, became LIKELY NEW DEMOCRAT on March 8. Became STRONG NEW DEMOCRAT again on April 5, and back to LIKELY NEW DEMOCRAT on April 19. Became LEAN NEW DEMOCRAT on May 3, and TOSS-UP NDP/OLP on May 17.
Bentley won the riding for the Liberals over the last three elections, winning majorities twice and still winning by 16 points in the last election. Before Bentley, the riding voted PC during the Harris years. It is possible it could go that way again.
But the Liberals have the advantage of incumbency, and their numbers have been improving. It makes London West a Likely Liberal hold.
But a riding poll by Forum Research (Feb. 11, 724 surveyed) which gave the Progressive Conservatives 34% of the vote to 30% for the Liberals and 28% for the New Democrats suggests it could be more competitive, though the poll is now somewhat dated.
Forecast history: Was TOSS-UP (OLP/NDP/PC) on March 4, became LEAN LIBERAL on March 8, and LIKELY LIBERAL on April 5. Returned to TOSS-UP (OLP/NDP/PC) on April 26. Became LIKELY LIBERAL on May 3.
This should be an easy win for the provincial Liberals, who are up dramatically in the province-wide polls. The Tories have dropped significantly, and they have traditionally been the main opponent to the Liberals in the riding.
Jones has represented Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair since 1996, and has won with huge majorities taking more than 70% of the vote in the last two elections.
The Liberals have held the riding since 1975, after the Labrador Party held it for one term. The riding would seem to be a Liberal stronghold, but Jones has represented it for so long that it is difficult to know for certain whether it is still a primarily Liberal riding or just a Jones riding. She was, after all, first elected as an independent against the incumbent Liberal candidate.
It seems unlikely the Tories are in the running. Their support has plummeted in recent months. The New Democrats, however, have been surging and have led in a few of the last provincial polls. The NDP only took 2% of the vote in 2011, the first time they had run a candidate in the riding since the 1990s. But now that Jones won't be on the ballot, how many voters would consider going with the NDP this time around? They are certainly gunning for the riding, as a win would vault them ahead of the Liberals in the seat count in the House of Assembly.
But because of the numbers that Jones put up in the last election and the current trends, the model considers this riding to be a Strong Liberal seat. I don't suspect anything will happen to change the model's mind.
Forecast history: Has been STRONG LIBERAL since Jones's resignation.
Morris has voted in a Progressive Conservative MLA for more than a generation, and Tallieu won the riding by a huge margin in 2011. Just with the riding's history, it would be considered a Tory lock.
That the PCs have improved their position in the polls over the last few months make the riding in even easier hold for the Progressive Conservatives. Barring some disaster, a PC MLA will represent the riding after the next vote.
Forecast history: Has been STRONG P.C. since Taillieu's resignation.
In the end, however, it might not prove to be such an interesting race. The riding has been a Liberal stronghold for most of its history, with the party having won 10 of 12 elections. Only in 1988 and in 1993, when the Liberals lost the riding by less than 1,000 votes to the Progressive Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois (respectively), was the riding painted anything but red.
It has certainly helped that the Liberals were represented by Coderre, one of the most visible Quebec MPs the Liberals have. Before 2011, he had never won Bourassa by less than 11 points. The New Democrats did give him a run in that election, pushing him down to 40.9% support (the lowest vote share the Liberals have ever had in the riding), but he nevertheless had an 8.6-point cushion. The New Democrats finished with 32.3% of the vote and the Bloc Québécois with 16.1%.
The Liberals would have to nominate a horrible candidate, and the NDP a stellar one, for this riding to not remain in the Liberal camp. The Bloc shouldn't be a factor, and that is why Daniel Paillé is almost certain not to take a run at the riding. The Conservatives are a complete non-player in Montreal, and the Greens less so (they took 8.8% and 1.6% of the vote, respectively, in 2011).
But perhaps the race is not as much of a slam dunk as the provincial swing would suggest. Forum surveyed 501 residents of the riding on May 17 by IVR, finding that 89% of respondents were aware of Coderre's decision to resign and run for the mayoralty. The poll gave the Liberals 45% support in a new by-election, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 26%, the NDP at 21%, and the Conservatives and Greens at 3% apiece.
When the New Democrats were polling well in Quebec last year, Bourassa might have been truly up for grabs. When the Bloc was briefly ahead in the province before Thomas Mulcair became leader, they might have even had a chance. But with the Liberals surging in Quebec and both the NDP and Bloc taking a big hit in support, the riding has to be considered a very safe one for the Liberals.
Forecast history: Has been a STRONG LIBERAL seat since Coderre's resignation.
Dalton McGuinty announced his resignation as Premier of Ontario in September 2012, and bowed out officially when he was replaced by Kathleen Wynne earlier this year. At the time, he had said he would stay on as an MPP until the next election. But with the pressure building on the gas plant issue, McGuinty announced last week that he would be resigning his seat of Ottawa South, which he had held since 1990.
When the New Democrats were polling well in Quebec last year, Bourassa might have been truly up for grabs. When the Bloc was briefly ahead in the province before Thomas Mulcair became leader, they might have even had a chance. But with the Liberals surging in Quebec and both the NDP and Bloc taking a big hit in support, the riding has to be considered a very safe one for the Liberals.
Forecast history: Has been a STRONG LIBERAL seat since Coderre's resignation.
Ottawa South has been in Liberal hands for 26 years since 1987, when McGuinty's father first won the riding. It has been a safe seat over that time, with McGuinty's support remaining remarkably steady.
With the exception of the 1999 election, there has been very little change in both Liberal and Progressive Conservative support in this riding in the six elections contested by the out-going former Liberal leader.
But prior to 1987, Ottawa South was a relative safe Tory seat, having voted for the party in every election since its creation in the 1920s. However, the riding has under-gone some major demographic changes over that time. The political make-up of Ottawa South of over a generation ago might have little to do with voting patterns today.
The Progressive Conservatives took 42% of the vote in eastern Ontario in the 2011 provincial election, compared to the 37% captured by the Liberals and the 17% of the New Democrats. When the Liberals were tanking in the weeks before McGuinty announced his intentions to step down as premier, the Liberals had fallen to the mid-20s in support in the region, and behind the New Democrats. The PCs had surged ahead to around 50% support. Had a by-election occurred at that time, Ottawa South would have been ripe for the Tory picking.
But the Ontario Liberals' poll numbers have improved under Wynne. Most polls now put the Liberals back over 30% in eastern Ontario, with the last three polls from Abacus Data, Ipsos-Reid, and Forum Research putting the Liberals at 33%, 32%, and 42% respectively in the region. The Tories have dropped back to around the 42% they took in the last election. The New Democrats are also back down to the high-teens, and so should not be a factor in this by-election (except potentially as a spoiler).
Generally, with the Tories holding steady and the Liberals down a little from 2011, this should make Ottawa South a closer riding. With the Liberals' lack of an incumbent candidate, that also drops them a little more. That brings the margin down to potentially single digits. However, the Liberals should be able to hold the riding due to their long history in it and the decent support levels the party has been showing under Wynne.
But the wildcard in this by-election is the McGuinty factor. No one could deny that the riding is dominated by the McGuinty name. In addition to the family holding the riding since 1987, David McGuinty, Dalton's brother, has been the federal MP for Ottawa South since 2004 and, despite the poor showing for the federal Liberals in the 2011 election, still won the riding by 11 points.
However, with one of the two McGuintys gone, will voters in the riding still vote for the Ontario Liberals? Was this riding a McGuinty riding or a Liberal riding? Are residents in the riding upset over the problems that led to McGuinty's departure? The by-election will tell us, but until then the forecast is for Ottawa South to be a Strong Liberal riding.
Forecast history: Has been a STRONG LIBERAL seat since McGuinty's resignation.
A by-election will be held on July 10 in the British Columbia riding of Westside-Kelowna, in an attempt for B.C. Liberal leader Christy Clark to get into the legislature after she lost her seat in May's provincial election.
Forecast history: Has been a STRONG LIBERAL seat since McGuinty's resignation.
There isn't a lot of data to go on here, as there haven't been any polls since the election on how British Columbians would vote today. But Ben Stewart won the riding easily in the last two elections, taking 58% of the vote to 31% for the NDP's candidate last month. The riding and its predecessors have been strongly centre-right for decades.
A poll by Forum Research (interviewing 350 people on June 6) found that support had not changed even with the replacement of Stewart by Clark, with 58% saying they'd vote for Clark, 30% for the NDP, and "less than 10%" for the Conservative candidate (the party took 11% in the last election). This would seem to suggest that voters in the riding will be sticking with their choices.
The only potential for trouble is if there is a reaction against parachuting Clark into the riding. It is unlikely, however, considering the history of the riding and that the Liberals are the government. It makes Westside-Kelowna a Strong B.C. Liberal riding.
Forecast history: Has been a STRONG B.C. LIBERAL seat since Stewart's resignation.
Forecast history: Has been a STRONG B.C. LIBERAL seat since Stewart's resignation.
