2015 Canadian federal election riding projections

The following are ThreeHundredEight.com's riding-level projections for the federal election scheduled for October 19, 2015. These numbers were last updated on September 4, 2015, and reflect the best estimates as of September 1, 2015, the last day of polls included in the model.

ThreeHundredEight.com's detailed national and regional vote and seat projections can now be found at the CBC's Poll Tracker. The riding projections here may lag behind the Poll Tracker's latest projections by a day or more. Please be sure to check the date of the projections above.

A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models that have been used to make these riding projections can be found here.

These riding projections are the best estimates of likely outcomes if an election were held on the last day of polling. The high and low results are  the estimates of likely floors and ceilings, based on the high and low vote projection ranges. The probabilities listed beside each riding is the likelihood that, if an election were held on the last day of polling, the projection model would correctly identify the winner. It does not assign any probability to a particular trailing party winning the riding - if a projection gives the leading party a 75% chance of winning, there is a 25% chance that any of the other parties could win (though, in practice, most ridings are only contests between two parties).

These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.