The most important movement has occurred in Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario, the Conservatives have moved ahead with 34.9% compared to 33.3% for the Liberals. In Quebec, the margin between the Liberals and NDP has narrowed, with the Liberals at 32.6% and the NDP at 30.1%.
These shifts have been caused by the new poll by Angus Reid Global, which gives the Conservatives the lead with 32% support among eligible voters. The Liberals followed at 30% and the NDP at 26%. That represents a gain of four points for the Tories since Angus Reid's March poll, and a drop of three points for the Liberals. Among likely voters, the Conservative edge increases to 34% to 29% for the Liberals, with the NDP at 27% (the aggregation is based on eligible voters, as we are outside of a campaign period).
These important shifts - the Liberals have led in virtually every poll conducted in the last year - has occurred almost exclusively in Ontario. In fact, Angus Reid has the Tories down in the three western regions, while the Liberals have picked up a little bit of support in Alberta, the Prairies, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. But in Ontario, the Conservatives gained eight points among likely overs to lead with 43%, while the Liberals dropped to 26%. That is almost the same support levels as in the 2011 federal election.
Are we really back to that starting line? We will need to see what other polls say, because the Angus Reid survey is out of step with every other recent poll. But the Angus Reid poll was conducted after the death of Jim Flaherty (though before the state funeral). As the jump in Tory support has occurred in Ontario, this may not be a coincidence. Nevertheless, we need to have confirmation before we reach any conclusions as Angus Reid is suggesting a significant realignment in what the polls have been showing for the last 12 months.
With these aggregate levels of support, the Conservatives would likely win around 133 seats, with 117 going to the Liberals, 84 to the New Democrats, two to the Greens, and two to the Bloc Québécois.
The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).