Canadian federal polling averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on September 16, 2014.

The aggregate has been updated with the newest Ipsos Reid / Global News poll. It shows very little change from Ipsos Reid's last poll of August 14-17. The Liberals and Conservatives were unchanged at 38% and 31%, respectively, while the NDP was down one point to 23%. The Bloc Québécois was up two points to 5%, while support for other parties (including the Greens) was unchanged at 3%.

None of these shifts were outside of the margin of error of probabilistic samples of similar size.

There was broad stability at the regional level, with a close three-way race in British Columbia (where the NDP did make a substantial gain), Conservative leads in Alberta and the Prairies, and Liberal advantages in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc moved back into third place in the aggregate in Quebec, putting the Conservatives back in fourth.

With the aggregate levels of support, the Liberals would likely win 155 seats, with 122 seats going to the Conservatives, 58 seats to the New Democrats, 2 seats to the Greens, and 1 seat to the Bloc Québécois.

The previous update included the new poll from Forum Research for the Toronto Star which showed the Liberals leading with 40% support, down one point from Forum's previous poll of August 18-19. The Conservatives were up two points to 34%, while the NDP was up one point to 18%. None of these shifts were outside the margin of error.

Of note in the poll was the high result for the Conservatives in Quebec. At 22%, the party placed second behind the Liberals (43%) and ahead of the NDP (20%) and the Bloc Québécois (13%). That was an unusually strong number for the Tories in Quebec, and represented their best poll result since November 2012. At the time, that was 108 polls ago.

Perhaps it was not a coincidence, then, that the 34% national score for the Conservatives was also their best in some time. They were last that high in February 2013, before Justin Trudeau took over the Liberal Party. If we consider the Conservative number in Quebec anomalous, and reduce it to the 14% to 15% that other polls have shown to be the level of support the party has in the province, that would reduce the nationwide tally to about 32%. That puts it more in line with other surveys.

The numbers for the Liberals and NDP also fall within this area of concern. At 43%, the Liberal result is roughly 10 points higher than their average support in 2014, while at 20% the NDP is about nine polls below average. The Liberals had not been this high in Quebec since a poll from June 2013, in the midst of the Trudeau honeymoon. If we make the same adjustments to the Liberals and NDP as we did to the Conservatives, we would boost the NDP's national numbers to around 20% and the Liberals would drop to around 38%. Either the Forum poll was slightly off for Quebec, or this is something to watch. Perhaps with the Bloc in apparent free-fall, we could see some unexpected shifts in the province.

The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

The chart below shows average support in polls conducted in each month going back to January 2009.