The following are ThreeHundredEight.com's riding-level projections for the federal election tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015. These numbers were last updated on July 27, 2015, and reflect the best estimates as of July 21, 2015, the last day of polls included in the model.
ThreeHundredEight.com's detailed national and regional vote and seat projections can now be found at the CBC's Poll Tracker. The riding projections here may lag behind the Poll Tracker's latest projections by a day or more. Please be sure to check the date of the projections above.
A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models that have been used to make these riding projections can be found here.
These riding projections are the best estimates of likely outcomes if an election were held on the last day of polling. The high and low results are the estimates of likely floors and ceilings, based on the high and low vote projection ranges. The probabilities listed beside each riding is the likelihood that, if an election were held on the last day of polling, the winning party identified by the model would actually win. It does not assign any probability to a particular trailing party winning the riding - if a projection gives the leading party a 75% chance of winning, there is a 25% chance that any of the other parties could win (though, in practice, most ridings are only contests between two parties).