Canadian federal polling averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on November 19, 2014.

The aggregate has been updated with a new poll by CROP for La Presse (Quebec only).

The New Democrats were ahead in the poll with 34% support in Quebec, followed by the Liberals at 32%. The Conservatives were third with 16% support, while the Bloc Québécois had just 14%.

Compared to CROP's previous survey of October 16-20, the NDP was up four points while the Liberals were down five. The Conservatives and Greens were each up one point. Only the Liberal fall would be outside of the margin of error of a similarly sized probabilistic sample.

The trends have been steady in Quebec, however, with neither the NDP nor Liberals having any momentum. Over the last six polls by CROP, the NDP has wobbled between 29% and 36%, with the Liberals wobbling between 31% and 38%, with no discernible pattern.

The New Democrats had a big lead among francophones, with 39% to 27% for the Liberals and 17% for the Bloc. Thomas Mulcair was also ahead on who Quebecers preferred to be Prime Minister, with 29% support to 22% for Justin Trudeau.

With the aggregate levels of support, the Liberals would likely win 135 seats, with 126 seats going to the Conservatives, 75 seats to the New Democrats, and 2 seats to the Greens.

The aggregate had previously been updated with a poll by Léger for CTV Montreal.

The Liberals led in the poll with 36% support, followed by the Conservatives at 33% and the New Democrats at 19%.

We had not heard from Léger at the national level since June 2013, but Léger did compare the numbers to an unpublished poll they did ending October 16. They found little change to have occurred, with the Liberals down one point and the NDP down two, while the Tories were up one point and the Greens were up two (to 7%).

There were no unusual regional results. The Liberals held a five-point edge over the Conservatives in Ontario (40% to 35%, with 15% for the NDP), were up on the NDP by four points in Quebec (33% to 29%, with 19% for the Tories), and held a seven-point advantage over the Conservatives in British Columbia (37% to 30%, with 22% for the NDP).

Justin Trudeau was narrowly ahead of Stephen Harper on who was preferred for Prime Minister, with 28% to 26%. Thomas Mulcair was third with 16%.

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The methodology used to weigh polls for the averages can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

The chart below shows average support in polls conducted in each month going back to January 2009.