Canadian federal polling averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on October 31, 2014.

The aggregate has been updated with a new poll from EKOS Research for iPolitics.

The poll gives the Liberals 33.4% support, followed by the Conservatives at 27.8% and the New Democrats at 21.4%.

EKOS was last in the field a few weeks ago, and compared to that survey the Liberals and NDP are both down a fair bit, with the Conservatives up slightly. But that poll was conducted using a hybrid telephone/online methodology, while this new poll was done via IVR. That being the case, it would be inappropriate to directly compare that previous survey to this new one. Instead, it would be better to compare the numbers to the last time EKOS was in the field with IVR. That was in an April 25-May 1 poll, and since then the changes have been marginal.

The differences in methodology are most stark in terms of approval ratings. Justin Trudeau led the pack with 36% approval to 32% disapproval, followed by Thomas Mulcair with a 35% to 22% split. Stephen Harper had an approval rating of just 25% and a disapproval rating of 52%.

If we compare that to the previous survey from October 10-15, done with a different methodology, this would mean a drop of 23 points in Mulcair's approval rating, a drop of 10 points in Trudeau's, and a drop of 11 points in Harper's disapproval ratings, with 'don't knows' ballooning by between 15 and 24 points, depending on the leader. On the other hand, compared to the previous IVR survey done six months ago, no leader has seen their ratings shift by more than five points. This alone shows why caution needs to be exercised when comparing two polls done in different ways.

With the aggregate levels of support, the Liberals would likely win 137 seats, with 117 seats going to the Conservatives, 80 seats to the New Democrats, 2 seats to the Greens, and 2 seats to the Bloc Québécois.

The aggregate had previously been updated in Quebec only on October 27 with a poll from CROP for La Presse. The poll, conducted October 16-20, showed the Liberals leading in the province with 37%, up three points from CROP's previous survey of September 17-22.

The New Democrats were down six points to 30%, followed by the Conservatives at 15% (+2) and the Bloc Québécois at 14% (+1).

Only the loss of support for the NDP would be outside of the margin of error of a similarly sized probabilistic sample.

Of note is how the numbers moved before the removal of undecideds. The Liberals actually only made a gain of one point among all voters, from 29% to 30%, while the NDP fell from 30% to 24%. Support for Thomas Mulcair as the best person to be prime minister was also down sharply, from 31% to 22%. Justin Trudeau moved ahead with a three-point gain to 28%, while Stephen Harper was at 12%.

The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

The chart below shows average support in polls conducted in each month going back to January 2009.