Canadian federal polling averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on December 19, 2014.

The aggregate has been updated with a new poll by CROP for La Presse (Quebec only).

The Liberals led in the poll with 37%, a gain of five points from CROP's previous survey of November 13-17.

The New Democrats were down four points to 30%, while the Bloc Québécois was up three points to 17% and the Conservatives were down three points to 13%.

The increase for the Liberals would be outside the margin of error of similarly sized probabilistic samples, but note that the parties have been going back and forth in CROP's polling for most of the year.

Among francophones, the NDP was down to 33%, but still ahead of the Liberals, who were at 30%. The Bloc was third with 21%, while the Conservatives had 12% among this demographic.

The Liberals led in and around Montreal and in the regions of the province, while the Conservatives were ahead in Quebec City.

With the aggregate levels of support, the Liberals would likely win 134 seats, with 134 seats going to the Conservatives, 67 seats to the New Democrats, 2 seats to the Greens, and 1 seat to the Bloc Québécois.

The aggregate had previously been updated on December 16 with a new poll by Forum Research for the Toronto Star.

The Liberals led in the poll with 41%, a gain of five points since Forum's previous survey of November 19-20. That is the best Liberal result in any poll since August, when Forum last had the party at 41%. But note that Forum has been the only pollster putting Liberal support at 40% or higher in any poll since Justin Trudeau became leader. That should be considered before we take the notion of the Liberals truly being in majority territory too seriously.

The Conservatives were unchanged at 33% support, while the New Democrats were down one point to 17%. It is not a coincidence that Forum is also the only pollster, aside from Léger, to put NDP support at under 20% in any poll since the last federal election while also being the most bullish for the Liberals.

The Liberal spike would be outside the margin of error, much of it apparently coming from the Greens who fell three points to 5% support.

The Forum poll would seem to fall in line with the Léger survey over the weekend, in that it shows a wider Liberal lead than EKOS does, and a lead that is growing. But I am inclined to see in this another wobble that will likely be corrected in Forum's next survey. It looks to me that we are in a new period of stability in which the Liberals are still leading, but with a smaller margin than the one they enjoyed in the summer (in July, Forum gave the Liberals a 16-point edge). It seems difficult to pin down exactly where the Liberals are, but the Conservative score is easier to determine. Over the last eight polls, the party has been between 30% and 33% in all of them. In the previous eight polls, that range was a muddier 25% to 34%.

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The methodology used to weigh polls for the averages can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

The chart below shows average support in polls conducted in each month going back to January 2009.