Canadian federal polling averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on August 21, 2014.

Two new polls have been added to the aggregate, one by Forum Research for the Toronto Star and the other by CROP for La Presse.

The Forum poll shows the Liberals still in front with 41%, down three points from the firm's previous survey of July 18. The Conservatives were up four points to 32%, while the NDP was down one point to 17%. Only the gain by the Tories appears to be outside of the margin of error, though the NDP has now fallen in three consecutive Forum polls (it was at 23% in May). The drop for the Liberals, from an implausible 44%, is likely just a regression to the mean.

In the aggregate, Forum's numbers have led to the NDP falling to third in both British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, to the benefit of the Conservatives. The Liberals have moved into first in the Prairies.

The CROP survey, for Quebec only, put the Liberals in front with 36% support, a gain of six points since CROP's last poll of June 12-16. The NDP was down three points to 32%, while the Bloc Québécois tumbled five points to just 13% support. That put them one point up on the Conservatives, and was their lowest score in any poll in a year.

The increase and decrease for the Liberals and Bloc would be outside the margin of error of a probabilistic sample of this size.

The previous update of August 11 included the latest poll from EKOS Research, which echoed the then most recent survey by Forum Research in giving the Liberals a wide lead: 38.7% against 25.6% for the Conservatives and 23.4% for the NDP. This represented a 3.8-point gain for the Liberals since EKOS's last poll of April-May, a jump that was outside of the margin of error. The drop of two points by the Tories, and the gain of two by the NDP, was within the MOE.

At 25.6%, the Conservatives were at their lowest level of support recorded in any poll since well before the last election. That might be a bit of a red flag, but a mark around 26% is not unusual for EKOS. The company has had the party at that level five times since Justin Trudeau became Liberal leader. So while it is on the low end of what other surveys have shown, it is not particularly unusual for EKOS.

With the aggregate levels of support, the Liberals would likely win 158 seats, with 121 seats going to the Conservatives, 55 seats to the New Democrats, 2 seats to the Bloc Québécois, and 2 seats to the Greens.

The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

The chart below shows average support in polls conducted in each month going back to January 2009.