Canadian federal polling averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on July 11, 2014.

The latest poll from Abacus Data for Sun Media shows the Liberals steady at 34%, unchanged from where they stood in Abacus's last poll of March. The Conservatives were up three points to 31%, while the NDP was unchanged at 23% support.

The most significant shift in the aggregation occurred in Quebec, where the Liberals again moved into the lead ahead of the NDP. This is due to the 36% to 24% margin in favour of the Liberals in the province recorded by Abacus.

The poll added on June 30 from Angus Reid Global showed very little change from its previous survey in May, with the Conservatives ahead with 31% and the Liberals trailing with 30%. Those numbers were unchanged. The NDP was up two points to 27%, while the Greens were down one to 6%.

The results were very different from the many other polls that give the Liberals a sizable lead over the Conservatives. But Angus Reid has been showing great stability, and very little real change in its numbers, since it returned to the federal polling world in February. This is exactly in line with other pollsters, who have also shown very little change since the beginning of the year.

With the aggregate levels of support, the Conservative would likely win 132 seats, with 122 seats going to the Liberals, 80 seats to the New Democrats, 2 seats to the Bloc Québécois, and 2 seats to the Greens.

The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

The chart below shows average support in polls conducted in each month going back to January 2009.