Canadian federal polling averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on October 22, 2014.

The aggregate has been updated in Alberta only with the results of a new poll from Lethbridge College. The poll put the Conservatives in front in the province with 51.4%, the lowest level of support recorded in Lethbridge's yearly surveys since they began in 2009.

The Liberals were at 20.6%, followed by the New Democrats at 13.3% and the Greens at 11.8%. That was the highest level of support for the Greens in Lethbridge's polling.

Because of the larger sample size for the province (564), we can drill down a little into the regions of Alberta. The Conservatives led throughout, but the race was a little closer in Edmonton: 41% for the Conservatives, 25% for the Liberals, and 18% for the NDP. In Calgary, the Tories had 56% to 22% for the Liberals and 13% for the Greens, with the NDP in fourth at 8%.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives had 54% in both the north and south, while the Liberals were at 20% in the north and 15% in the south, with the NDP at 16% in the north and 13% in the south.

With the aggregate levels of support, the Liberals would likely win 133 seats, with 116 seats going to the Conservatives, 87 seats to the New Democrats, and 2 seats to the Greens.

The aggregate has been previously updated on October 21 with a new poll from Abacus Data, which showed the race tightening between the three parties.

Abacus was last in the field on September 12-14, and since then recorded a six-point drop for the Liberals to 32% support. The Conservatives were unchanged at 30%, while the NDP was up two points to 25% and the Greens were up three points to 8%.

The shift in support for the Liberals and Greens would be outside the margin of error of a similarly sized probabilistic sample.

Of note in these numbers was Ontario, where the Liberals dropped nine points to 33% and the NDP gained nine points to reach 28%. That represents the lowest level of Liberal support in Ontario recorded in any poll since May (16 polls ago), while the NDP has not been as high as 28% since February (31 polls ago). So, either Ontario is undergoing an important shift or these numbers may reset themselves.

The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

The chart below shows average support in polls conducted in each month going back to January 2009.