Canada

Federal polling averages

The following is a weighted average of all federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on May 24, 2013 with an IVR poll by Forum Research  for The National Post.

Though it wasn't reported, the sample sizes suggest that the proportion of people who refused to answer or were undecided in the Forum poll was around 4%. Most parties held stable in the poll compared to Forum's last survey from mid-April, though the Conservatives did fall three points from 30% to 27%.

The Liberals led in every age category in this survey, including by nine points among voters aged 65 and older. The poll had an unusual result in Alberta, however, showing the Conservatives at 46% and the Liberals at 42%.

Note that while the poll is very good for the Liberals, Forum has tended to have higher results for the party in recent surveys than other firms. As you can see in the table below, the Liberals have averaged 37.5% across Forum's four polls since Mar. 6-7, while the party averaged only 31.8% in the nine polls by all other firms over the same time period.

The table below shows the national results and the relative weights of the most recent polls included in the aggregation that, in total, represent at least 99% of the weighted sample.

The chart below shows average support in polls conducted in each month going back to January 2009.