Canadian federal polling averages

The following is a weighted average of the latest federal polls. A full description of the methodology used to weigh the polls can be found here. The federal polling average was last updated on April 11, 2014.

The Liberals retain a wide lead over the Conservatives in the averages, with 36% support to 27.7% for the Tories and 22.9% for the NDP. The Liberals led in every region or province except Alberta and the Prairies, where the Tories hold sway. The NDP moved into second in Atlantic Canada, meanwhile, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives.

The new poll added to the averages comes from EKOS Research via iPolitics, and puts the Liberals at 35.8% support against 26.7% for the Conservatives and 21.8% for the New Democrats. Compared to EKOS's last poll from the end of January, that represents a gain of 2.6 points for the Liberals and decreases of three and 2.5 points for the Tories and NDP, respectively. Only the Conservative drop appears significant.

That Conservative drop came primarily from Ontario, where the party fell nine points to 26%. But that steep decline was made up for with significant gains in British Columbia and Manitoba. The slip by the New Democrats came mostly from Quebec, where the party was down 6.5 points to 25.2%. That put them behind the Liberals, who were up to 33.8% support in Quebec. The Liberals were down significantly in Manitoba, however.

The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Canada (external link).

The chart below shows average support in polls conducted in each month going back to January 2009.