Click here to read an explanation of the new model, how it performed in 2011, and what to keep in mind when looking at these numbers.
Click here to read the detailed analyses from the main site concerning the federal election and new polls.
VOTE AND SEAT PROJECTION
A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models and how the probabilities are calculated can be found here.
The projections are subject to the margin of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent inability for the projection model to make perfect estimations of real-world dynamics. The projection ranges are a reflection of the degree of error polls have made in recent elections. The probabilities are based on how polls have differed from election results in the past.
The follow chart breaks the projection down by region.
REGIONAL BREAKDOWN AND TRACKING
The following chart lists the national polls currently included in the projection model that make up at least 99% of the weighted average, as well as the weight each poll carries. It also lists the media outlet that either commissioned or first reported the poll.
By including polls in the projection, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. However, the weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account.
These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.
(From top to bottom, the first image contains projections for ridings in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan A to M, the second image contains projections for Saskatchewan N to Z, Manitoba, and Ontario A to M, the third image contains projections for Ontario M to Z and Quebec A to C, and the fourth image contains projections for Quebec C to Z, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, and the three territories.)
The chart below shows the evolution of the seat and vote projections and ranges since the start of the campaign.