Federal weighted polling averages

The following are ThreeHundredEight's federal weighted polling averages. These weighted averages were last updated on February 17, 2017.

The arrows show whether a party has gained or lost support since previous updates. Multiple arrows mean the party has gained or lost support in consecutive updates (to a limit of three).
Polls included in the aggregation are weighted by date, sample size, and the track record of the polling firm. Full methodological details can be found here.
Monthly tracking chart

The tracking chart below shows the monthly polling averages stretching back to January 2009. Elections and campaigns as well as the arrival of new federal leaders are also included.


You can click or tap on the chart above to magnify it.

Seat projections

The chart below shows how many seats each of the parties would have won in an election, based on the current weighted polling average. For full methodology, see here.

The tracking chart below shows the maximum and minimum seat ranges (which are wider than the likely ranges above) projected for each party since the 2015 federal election, using the monthly polling averages.

You can click or tap on the chart above to magnify it.

Federal Polls

All national polls published since the beginning of 2017 and used in the weighted averages are listed below. Provincial and regional polls are also included in the averages, but not listed below. 

Note that Nanos Research is running a four-week rolling poll. Only the latest results from Nanos and the previous independent four-week sample are used in the aggregation.

Parties are ordered by finishing position in the 2015 federal election.

Nanos Research (Jan. 8-Feb. 10, 2017)
38% LPC, 33% CPC, 17% NDP, 5% BQ, 5% GPC
Campaign Research (Feb. 3-6, 2017)
34% LPC, 34% CPC, 16% NDP, 6% BQ, 6% GPC
Nanos Research (Jan. 3-Feb. 3, 2017)
38% LPC, 33% CPC, 16% NDP, 5% BQ, 6% GPC
Nanos Research (Dec. 27-Jan. 27, 2017)
39% LPC, 32% CPC, 16% NDP, 5% BQ, 5% GPC
Ipsos/Global News (Jan. 23-25, 2017)
41% LPC, 30% CPC, 19% NDP, 5% BQ, 5% OTH
Forum/Toronto Star (Jan. 19-21, 2017)
42% LPC, 36% CPC, 12% NDP, 4% BQ, 5% GPC
Nanos Research (Dec. 18-Jan. 20, 2017)
39% LPC, 31% CPC, 16% NDP, 5% BQ, 6% GPC
Nanos Research (Dec. 11-Jan. 13, 2017)
41% LPC, 28% CPC, 16% NDP, 6% BQ, 6% GPC
Nanos Research (Dec. 4-Jan. 6, 2017)
43% LPC, 29% CPC, 16% NDP, 5% BQ, 5% GPC