Ontario

The following is a weighted average of polls of the Ontario political scene (aggregation methodology). The average was last updated on April 24, 2014 with a poll by Nanos Research.
Though it is the newest poll to hit the wires, Nanos's survey (April 7-11) is slightly older than the most recent Innovative poll (April 8-14). Nevertheless, the Nanos poll shows the Liberals and PCs to be tied at 36% apiece, with the New Democrats trailing at length with 22% support. That is rather low for the NDP, and it will be interesting to see if other polls suggest the New Democrats are losing out in a polarized race.

Though the Liberals and PCs were tied in the poll, Kathleen Wynne had the better numbers overall. On who would make the best premier, Wynne topped the list at 32%, with 25% choosing Tim Hudak and 18% choosing Andrea Horwath. On who has the qualities of a good leader, Wynne and Horwath were virtually tied with 54% and 53%, respectively, saying that they did have those good qualities. But only 39% said the same about Hudak.

With these aggregate levels of support, the Liberals would likely win 43 seats, with 41 seats going to the Tories and 23 seats going to the NDP.

The methodology used to weigh polls can be found here. By including polls in the average, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement or legitimization of their results. The weighting scheme takes this partly into account. See here for a complete rundown of the latest polls in Ontario (external link).

The chart below shows the evolution of the weighted polling averages since July 2013 (note that the date listed is the final field date of the polling included in the aggregation at the time of the update).