Click here to read the detailed analyses from the main site concerning the Ontario election and new polls.
VOTE AND SEAT PROJECTION
A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models and how the probabilities are calculated can be found here.
The projections are subject to the margin of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent inability for the projection model to make perfect estimations of real-world dynamics. The projection ranges are a reflection of the degree of error polls have made in recent elections. The probabilities are based on how polls have differed from election results in the past.
The follow chart breaks the projection down by region. A description of what each region includes can be found at the bottom of this page.
REGIONAL BREAKDOWN AND TRACKING
The following chart lists the polls currently included in the projection model that make up at least 99% of the weighted average, as well as the weight each poll carries. It also lists the media outlet that either commissioned or first reported the poll.
By including polls in the projection, no representation as to the accuracy or equivalency of the methods used is implied, nor should inclusion be seen as an acceptance, endorsement, or legitimization of their results. However, the weighting scheme takes reliability partly into account.
These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voting intentions in each riding.
The chart below shows the evolution of the seat and vote projections and ranges since the start of the campaign.
Eastern Ontario - Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Kingston and the Islands, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington, Leeds-Grenville, Nepean-Carleton, Ottawa Centre, Ottawa-Orleans, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa-West Nepean, Prince Edward-Hastings, Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
905 Area Code - Ajax-Pickering, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Burlington, Dufferin-Caledon, Durham, Halton, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Markham-Unionville, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Niagara Falls, Niagara West-Glanbrook, Northumberland-Quinte West, Oak Ridges-Markham, Oakville, Oshawa, Pickering-Scarborough East, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Thornhill, Vaughan, Welland, Whitby-Oshawa
Northern Ontario - Algoma-Manitoulin, Barrie, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Kenora-Rainy River, Nickel Belt, Nipissing, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Peterborough, Sault Ste. Marie, Simcoe-Grey, Simcoe-North, Sudbury, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Timiskaming-Cochrane, Timmins-James Bay, York-Simcoe
Southwestern Ontario - Brant, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Cambridge, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Essex, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Huron-Bruce, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Conestoga, Kitchener-Waterloo, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, London-Fanshawe, London North Centre, London West, Oxford, Perth-Wellington, Sarnia-Lambton, Wellington-Halton Hills, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West
Toronto - Beaches-East York, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke North, Parkdale-High Park, St. Paul's, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Guildwood, Scarborough-Rouge River, Scarborough Southwest, Toronto Centre, Toronto-Danforth, Trinity-Spadina, Willowdale, York Centre, York South-West, York West