Thursday, August 27, 2015

2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 4

The beat goes on. Just seven weeks to go! Seven! After this one!

Thursday, August 27, 2015

- The Poll Tracker has been updated with the Forum poll, pushing the NDP's likely seat range above that of the Conservatives. The riding projections are now up-to-date as well.

- I joined Chris Hall on Power and Politics last night to talk about my piece on the leaders' tours. We also went over where the numbers stand today. Speaking of which, Forum broke the mold this morning. Harbinger of things to come, or the kind of quickly-corrected swing we've seen from Forum before?

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

- Two Pollcast episodes are up today! A special treat, with three this week after yesterday's podcast with Mario Canseco. Today, a discussion with Facebook's Kevin Chan about what they are doing in this campaign, and another discussion with the Angus Reid Institute's Shachi Kurl. What are her numbers showing? You can find both episodes here. You can also subscribe on iTunes or with the iPhone podcast app.

- The Poll Tracker has been updated, reflecting the latest Angus Reid numbers as well as those for Alberta from Insights West. The riding projections are also up-to-date. And watch for the next episode of the Pollcast coming later today. Today's guest is Shachi Kurl from Angus Reid Institute to talk about their new poll.

- I tried to read the tea leaves of the leaders' tours in my piece for the CBC this morning. My conclusions? The Conservatives are playing the long game, the NDP is consolidating gains, and the Liberals are focusing on ridings that are on the bubble now.

- The latest episode of the Pollcast features Mario Canseco of Insights West. We discuss their latest B.C.-only poll.

- An Angus Reid Institute poll was released this morning, showing numbers broadly in-line with other surveys. But the numbers for the Liberals were a little lower than the norm.

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

- The riding projections have been updated to reflect the latest numbers on the Poll Tracker.

- An interesting poll from Insights West on the race in B.C., with detailed regional breakdowns. Watch for the latest episode of the Pollcast, in which I discuss the poll with Insights West's Mario Canseco.

- A lot of talk about the economy today, so I took a look at how the parties and leaders rate on the issue. The verdict? The economy is not the Conservative trump card it once was.

- Nanos's four-week rolling poll is out, showing everyone still clumped together. The big bone of contention with the other polls, though, is in Ontario. Nanos has the Tories doing much better than other polls, and I don't think we can chalk it up to old data.

Monday, August 24, 2015

- This weekend, I joined Chris Hall on The House to talk about Battleground Quebec: the recent CROP, the Conservatives' chances in Quebec City, and how the Bloc Québécois is doing.

- Quiet weekend and Monday morning on the polling front. There have been 11 polls conducted during the campaign so far after 22 days. At this point of the 2011 campaign, there had been 46 polls. Of course, that was a shorter campaign. In the same period this far out from the 2011 vote, there had been eight polls conducted. We're beating that mark, at least.

Friday, August 21, 2015

2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 3

With the trial continuing to unfold in Ottawa, one might be forgiven for forgetting there is a national campaign happening! But the pollsters have started to weigh-in, so we're in it now.

Friday, August 21, 2015

- My analysis of the Duffy polls and the latest Poll Tracker update.

- The riding projections have now been updated to align with the latest Poll Tracker.

- I spoke on Maritime Noon about the latest Duffy polls.

- The Poll Tracker has been updated with the new Forum poll. Boosts the NDP in the seat count, the Liberals in the vote.

- With all the talk about kids lately on the parties' campaigns, I took a detailed look at what parents are thinking of the race.

- A couple polls from Abacus Data and Angus Reid on the Duffy trail. Potentially bad news for the Conservatives.

Thursday, August 20, 2015

- Some interesting riding polls conducted by Environics for LeadNow. I'm not sure how to handle them, since they are from an interest group. At this stage of the campaign, though, it is not too important to take riding polls into account. If these are still coming out in October, then I'll have some serious thinking to do. The vast majority of them line-up with the projection pretty closely.

- A CROP poll with some surprising results makes waves in Quebec. No, this isn't a rerun from 2011. Full regionals are here.

- I was on Power and Politics last night, talking about the latest numbers.

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

- Discussion sur le sujet des sondages: Format libre, Radio-Canada à Moncton (37:30)

- Exclusive, original content alert! I wrote a post here on ThreeHundredEight about the latest Saskatchewan poll, with regional breakdowns.

- To discuss the findings of his latest poll, Abacus Data CEO David Coletto joined me on the Pollcast. Don't forget to subscribe on iTunes so you don't miss an episode - we're currently recording two per week!

- Here's my deeper analysis of the state of the polls.

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

- The riding projections are now up-to-date with the Poll Tracker.

- Two updates today! The Poll Tracker has been updated again, now with the just-released Abacus Data poll. It has a heavy weighting because, when it comes down to it, the data is the only new data since the Léger poll that was out of the field on August 12 (almost a week ago). And look out for the new Pollcast episode coming soon - David Coletto of Abacus will be joining me to talk about his latest numbers.

- The Poll Tracker has been updated with the newest Nanos poll. These four-week polls pose a bit of a problem for the weighting model. But to let you know how I am handling them, I am treating each Nanos poll as if it is a new poll with 1/4 of the total sample. So, from the model's perspective, it is as if Nanos was releasing a weekly poll of 250 people.

- A few new polls were out today. Nanos has its weekly tracking out, though again we're still talking about a poll that includes almost two weeks' worth of pre-writ information. Forum has a poll for Spadina-Fort York, showing Olivia Chow leading Adam Vaughan by a wide margin. It matches the current projection almost perfectly, which is a good sign that the new by-election methodology is on the right track. And finally, a big-sample poll for Saskatchewan showing a close race between the Conservatives and the NDP.

Monday, August 17, 2015

- I looked in detail at the race in Quebec, thanks to the regional breakdowns of Léger's new poll.

- The riding projections have been updated to match the latest numbers from the Poll Tracker.

- The Poll Tracker has been updated, incorporating the latest numbers from the Léger poll. The Conservatives have taken a hit.

- This latest update also includes a change in how by-elections are handled. After doing some testing, I have settled on a better method than one that relied entirely on the results of the by-election, where the polls were in that region at the time, and how things have swung since then. That is still a consideration, but now the previous general election is also taken into account. The weighting applied to the swing from the general and the by-election is now determined by the turnout in each. One immediate impact of this change is that the Greens' chances in Victoria and the old Calgary Centre riding have been reduced.

- On The House, we discussed battleground Saskatchewan. That shows how weird this campaign is - Saskatchewan is a battleground!

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

New poll shows how Saskatchewan is a province to watch

A new Insightrix Research poll was published yesterday, showing the race in Saskatchewan could be closer than it has been in over 30 years. But the regional breakdowns, provided to me by Insightrix, show that there are battlegrounds all over Saskatchewan.

Overall, the Conservatives led in Saskatchewan with 39%, followed closely by the New Democrats at 35%. The Liberals were third with 21%, while 5% supported the Greens.

Another 1% opted for another party, while 10% said they were undecided.

This aligns closely with some of the polling we have seen from EKOS Research, which includes a breakdown for Saskatchewan but never has a large enough sample to really say anything definitive.

It also means that, since the 2011 vote, the Conservatives are down 17 points, the NDP is up three, and the Liberals are up 12.

But most interesting from the poll is the breakdown for the province. We never get to see those kinds of numbers.

Regina is the big surprise. It shows the Liberals narrowly leading with 35%, followed by the Conservatives at 34% and the NDP at 27%. On the face of it, this would suggest the city is up for grabs. But Regina includes Ralph Goodale's riding of Regina-Wascana, and if Goodale takes some 60% of the vote or so, which is where the projection model puts him, the Liberals could be polling in the high-teens in the city's other ridings. That means that, despite the close overall race, the Liberals may not be in a position to make any gains.

The New Democrats are looking very strong in Saskatoon, where they lead with 39% to 32% for the Tories and 23% for the Liberals.

Perhaps most surprising, though, is that the New Democrats are also very competitive in northern and southern Saskatchewan. They are running neck-and-neck with the Conservatives in the north, and are only seven points behind the Tories in the south. If that vote is concentrated in the right places, the NDP could potentially win a seat or two outside of Regina and Saskatoon.

Of course, the samples are small. The margin of error of a probabilistic sample of similar size would be eight or nine points in Regina and Saskatoon, which could change things dramatically. That increases to 10 points in the north, and is a little more than six points in the south. And since we don't have any other numbers to compare these to, we have to take those margins of error into consideration.

So that could, on the one hand, mean the Conservatives are not in much danger outside of the two big cities, and could be leading comfortably in Regina. Saskatoon, at best for the Tories, would be a close race. But on the other hand, it could also mean that the NDP is leading in every part of the province. It will be interesting to see if more polls come out for Saskatchewan in order to shed a little more light on the state of the race in this new battleground.