Thursday, October 8, 2015

2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 10

The debates are done and we now find ourselves in the penultimate week. A decisive week?

Thursday, October 8, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- Talking about the polls on last night's Power and Politics with Rosemary Barton.

- The latest episode of the Pollcast, featuring Susan Delacourt! We talk about what impact the polls have had on this campaign, and how the media has been covering them.

- Les tendances des sondages - Matins sans frontières, Radio-Canada Windsor.

- The last 18 hours of polls: Nanos showing the Liberals down, the NDP up, and the Conservatives up a little since their previous three-day sample. Since a day before, EKOS showing the Tories and NDP down, the Liberals up. And Forum showing the Liberals up and the Conservatives down from their previous survey. A lot of convergence, then, from the more confusing picture the polls were painting over the past week or two. Also, some riding polls from Mainstreet for the Ottawa region.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- My latest regional spotlight is on Toronto.

- Your daily Nanos. Compared to the previous three day sample, every party has moved about a point: the Liberals and NDP down, the Conservatives up. And an Abacus Data poll just released, showing the Conservatives up very slightly, and the Liberals making a more substantial gain at the expense of the NDP. With this poll, and the EKOS poll yesterday, I think we're starting to see more convergence.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

- My latest analysis of the polls, and how they are still in disagreement. And this disagreement might continue on a daily basis, as EKOS will now be releasing daily tracking polls too!

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- A few national polls released in the last day. Your daily Nanos, which compared to the previous independent three day sample is showing the Liberals and Conservatives up very marginally and the NDP down less marginally (and overall, the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 3.5 points). Ipsos Reid is showing very little change from their previous poll, with the NDP and Liberals down a point and the Conservatives up one (the Conservatives lead the Liberals by one). And then there's Mainstreet, which shows the Conservatives almost in majority territory (the Conservatives lead the Liberals by eight). Their previous poll was done almost two months before, so the trend line is not very informative. Also note that Mainstreet was out of the field on October 1, whereas Nanos and Ipsos were out of the field on October 5.

- Another bunch of riding polls from Forum. Check out this page for the full list.

Monday, October 5, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- Your daily Nanos. Compared to the last independent sample from Nanos, we're looking at a small drop for the Conservatives (0.9 points), a decent increase for the Liberals (2.1 points), and a slide for the NDP (3.1 points). Compared to the sample before that, we're looking at much more substantial movement (-1.6 for the Conservatives, +4.2 for the Liberals, and -4.2 for the NDP). Also, a riding poll from Forum for Peterborough–Kawartha.

- If you're up this early, you can catch me on CBC Quebec City radio (in English) at about 8:10 ET and on CBC News Network at 8:40 ET.

Saturday, October 3, 2015

2015 Federal Election Link Round-up, Week 9

Only three more full weeks to go before voting day. Are we starting to see the three-way race became unstuck?

Saturday, October 3, 2014

- My latest regional analysis is of Greater Montreal.

- I was on The House this morning talking about the latest polls and the impact of the debates.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated. On a weekend! Now that we're in the final stretch, I will try to update on the weekends when there are enough polls out to warrant an update. I wouldn't update for a single Nanos poll, for example, but today I had three to add.

Friday, October 2, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated, and the actual candidates in each riding has been taken into account in these projections.

- This is a great editorial from the National Post in defence of polling. The editorial makes pretty much every point I would make in defence of polling during a campaign, so I give it a very hearty thumbs up.

- Your daily Nanos, which has the Liberals up and the Tories and NDP down compared to their previous independent three-day sample. An Angus Reid Institute poll from yesterday, but since we haven't heard from ARI in a little while it is difficult to see the trend line. But it echoes the Forum poll from yesterday. And a Léger poll this morning, showing the NDP down and some big changes in Quebec. Finally, a Forum riding poll for University–Rosedale showing a close race.

Thursday, October 1, 2015

- Here's my analysis of this morning's polling.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated. Note that the riding projections do not take into account the official candidate list yet.

- Your daily Nanos, showing stability for the Liberals and Conservatives and a tiny decline for the NDP since Nanos's previous independent three-day sample. And a Forum poll, showing the Conservatives up, the Liberals down, and the NDP steady. The two polls (looking at when Nanos was last in the field at the same time as Forum) agree on the Conservative uptick, but disagree on whether it is the NDP (Nanos) or the Liberals (Forum) that dropped as a result.

- For those wondering, as the official list of candidates is now finalized I will be going through that list to make sure the projections reflect the actual ballot in each riding. Look for those updated numbers either later today or tomorrow.

- I was on Power and Politics last night talking about Alberta.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- My latest regional focus, this time on Alberta.

- The daily Nanos poll, which is generally showing stability for the Liberals and Conservatives and continuing decline for the New Democrats. That has been the story of the last week. Here are Nanos's results since the beginning of September, looking only at the independent three day samples:

09/08: 26% - 31% - 33%
09/11: 31% - 30% - 32%
09/14: 31% - 30% - 30%
09/17: 29% - 31% - 31%
09/20: 31% - 29% - 29%
09/23: 31% - 31% - 32%
09/26: 32% - 28% - 33%
09/29: 32% - 26% - 32%

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- A busy day yesterday! Here I am on The National talking about the latest polls (starts at 8:55), here's the polling panel with David Coletto and Dimitri Pantazapoulos on Power and Politics, et hier sur Midi info au sujet des sondages et leur importance.

- Stability in your daily Nanos numbers, while Ipsos Reid is showing the same sort of longer term gains for the Tories and losses for the NDP that other polls have been showing.

Monday, September 28, 2015

- My analysis of today's polls. This was before the new Ipsos Reid poll. And the Pollcast episode with David Coletto is up. You can find it here.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- The Abacus poll, with the surprisingly large drop for the NDP in Quebec. Stay tuned for the next episode of the Pollcast, as David Coletto of Abacus Data will drop by to talk about his numbers.

- Your daily Nanos, which is showing some definite movement against the New Democrats. It is certainly the most dramatic shift we've seen since the three-way race ensconced itself. Also, some interesting Innovative numbers (see the full website for all the PDFs), and an Abacus poll is forthcoming. Some riding polls from Forum have just been released, looking at two ridings in Edmonton and one in Ottawa.

- On The House this weekend, I talked about Ontario and the latest EKOS poll. I also took my regional look to northern, central, and eastern Ontario.

- In case you were wondering, I'm not going to calculate the weekly averages as they were conflicting with the Poll Tracker and confusing some people.

Friday, September 25, 2015

2015 Federal Election Link Round-up: Week 8

Less than four weeks to go! Here are the unweighted weekly averages:

Week 8: CPC 30.8% LPC 30.7% NDP 28.7% GPC 4.9% BQ 4.0%
Week 7: NDP 30.7% CPC 30.0% LPC 29.8% GPC 5.6% BQ 3.3%
Week 6: NDP 31.7% LPC 30.3% CPC 29.1% GPC 4.9% BQ 3.5%
Week 5: NDP 32.4% LPC 29.9% CPC 27.2% GPC 5.1% BQ 4.1%
Week 4: NDP 33.9% CPC 28.4% LPC 27.9% GPC 5.0% BQ 3.8%
Week 3: NDP 32.7% CPC 29.4% LPC 28.0% GPC 5.1% BQ 3.9%
Week 2: NDP 31.8% CPC 29.8% LPC 27.5% GPC 5.4% BQ 4.6%
Week 1: NDP 34.7% CPC 29.6% LPC 26.8% BQ 4.6% GPC 4.0%

Friday, September 25, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have been updated.

- Riding polls in Manitoba and Saskatchewan from Mainstreet.

- My analysis of the latest polls from yesterday. Is the NDP slipping? Nanos today argues against that, but Forum argues for it. The debate last night may make the question moot.

- I was on Power and Politics last night talking about the state of the race and the odd discrepancies in the polls yesterday.

- Nanos and Forum today show the same three-way race that they've been showing for awhile now. And an Alberta poll from Insights West with some interesting regional breakdowns.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

- It is pollmageddon today. Here's Nanos and Léger, showing the same old race. Here's EKOS, showing something unrecognizable. Here's Mainstreet in Ontario, and a few places in Quebec. And here's Forum in four ridings in Toronto.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

- The Poll Tracker has been updated, and the riding projections will be updated shortly. In the meantime, check out the new feature Stephen McMurtry has added to the interactive projection map. It allows you to toggle between each party's high projected range, giving you an idea of what the map would look like if each party maxes out its potential wins. These numbers represent the likely ranges, and not the max ranges.

- My next regional spotlight is on southwestern Ontario.

- Your daily Nanos. Compared to the previous independent three-day sample, the Liberals are up a bit, the Conservatives are up a little, and the NDP is steady. It's the dance of the thousandth percentage points.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

- On the latest episode of the Pollcast, Phil Authier from the Montreal Gazette joins me to talk about that whole NDP Papineau poll.

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have been updated.

- Yesterday's polling panel with Dimitri Pantazapolous on Power and Politics.

- Polls from Forum and Ipsos Reid yesterday, and Nanos this morning.

Monday, September 21, 2015

- I took a stab at gauging the race in terms of whether opinion was firming up or not. It's not.

- The Poll Tracker and the riding projections have been updated.

- Your daily Nanos. Compared to the previous independent three day sample, the NDP is down about two points, the Liberals are down a little less than that, and the Conservatives are up about two points. Taking the entire campaign in three day blocks, the Tories have registered, from start to today 26%, 31%, 31%, 29%, and 31%. For the NDP, it has been 31%, 30%, 30%, 31%, 29%, and for the Liberals it has been 33%, 32%, 30%, 31%, 29%. Not a whole lot of movement, except maybe a swing from the Liberals to the Tories in early September.

- A few Atlantic Canada riding polls from Mainstreet Research.

- My second regional spotlight went up Saturday. This time the focus was on Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

- I was on The House Saturday, talking about debates and the economy.