Friday, January 30, 2009

Today's Poll

Angus-Reid Strategies has released a new national poll. Here are the results:

Conservatives - 38%
Liberals - 29%
New Democrats - 18%
Bloc Québécois - 8%
Greens - 6%

Here are the Ontario results:

Conservatives - 41%
Liberals - 33%
New Democrats - 19%
Greens - 6%

And here are the Quebec results:

Bloc Québécois - 31%
Liberals - 26%
Conservatives - 19%
New Democrats - 17%
Greens - 5%

This has resulted in a few changes in the projection. The Conservatives are now up to 140 seats and the NDP is down to 22. The Liberals and Bloc remain at 97 and 49, respectively. The national popular vote has changed as follows:

New Democrats +0.4
Conservatives +0.1
Liberals -0.2
Bloc Québécois -0.2
Greens -0.2

The biggest positive change in the provincial/regional numbers belongs to the Liberals, who have gone up 0.7% in Atlantic Canada. The biggest negative change belongs to the New Democrats in British Columbia, who are down 0.7%.

Thursday, January 29, 2009

New CROP-La Presse Poll

CROP has released a new poll today, looking at the federal situation in Quebec. The results are as follows:

Bloc Québécois - 34%
Liberals - 31%
Conservatives - 16%
NDP - 15%
Greens - 4%

This has resulted in a change in the projections. The Bloc has fallen to 49 seats and the Liberals are up one to 97 (17 in Quebec). The popular vote, in Quebec, has also changed:

Liberals +1.1
NDP +1.1
Greens -0.2
Conservatives -0.8
Bloc Québécois -1.0

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

The Government Survives

With the Liberal pledge to support the Conservative budget, with some reservations, it is extremely unlikely that we will see an election before Parliament closes for the summer. The fall is a possibility, next spring is a strong likelihood.

Nevertheless, with the Liberal proposal to have status updates throughout the year, the possibility of an election will always be in the air. And, of course, with a minority government it is always a possibility. We can expect the polling houses to continue their work throughout the year, and you can expect this website to continue its projections as well.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Site Update

I updated the Past Elections page with the 1993 result.

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

New Poll

EKOS released a new poll today through The Globe and Mail. Here are the results:

Conservatives - 36.2%
Liberals - 32.6%
New Democrats - 14.3%
Greens - 9.1%
Bloc Québécois - 7.9%

The Ontario numbers are interesting as well, with the Liberals at 41% and the Conservatives at 39%, thought that is well within the margin of error (4.8%). The NDP at 11% must be worrisome for them, if true. The Quebec numbers are very close between the Liberals and Conservatives (21% to 20.9%) but the 12.2% result for the Green Party looks a little wonky.

There are no major changes to the projections. The Liberals have risen to 96 seats from 95 and the NDP has sunken to 24. They seem to be the ones steadily on the decline.

In terms of popular vote, there also aren't any major changes. The most significant would seem to be a half-percentage-point loss by the NDP in Ontario.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

New Projections

Finally, the site has been updated with new projections. The Conservatives look to lose a few seats but maintain a strong minority government. The Liberals have the most to gain, Michael Ignatieff bumping up the Liberals to 95 seats. The NDP looks to be the biggest loser were an election to take place today, dropping to 25 seats. The Bloc would gain one seat, stealing some from the Conservatives while losing a few to the Liberals. Quebec is one of the biggest changes, with the Liberals up about three points and the Conservatives down around two.

Here are the seat changes from the 2008 election:

Liberals +18
Bloc Québécois +1
Independents -2
Conservatives -5
NDP -12

And here are the popular vote changes:

Liberals +3.7
Conservatives -0.1
Greens -0.3
Bloc Québécois -0.7
NDP -1.7

Here are the popular vote changes in Ontario for the three major parties:

Liberals +3.5
Conservatives +0.2
NDP -2.0

And here for Quebec:

Liberals +2.5
Bloc Québécois +1.0
NDP -2.1
Conservatives -2.5

The reality is that Ignatieff has been a game changer. The Conservatives have hurt a bit from it but the real loser has to be the NDP.

Saturday, January 17, 2009

Two New Polls

This time from Angus-Reid and Strategic Counsel. I'm not ready to make projections yet, but still wanted to pass along the information. First, Angus-Reid:

Conservatives - 39%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 17%
Bloc Québécois - 9%
Greens - 5%

And now Strategic Counsel:

Conservatives - 36%
Liberals - 29%
NDP - 18%
Bloc Québécois - 8%
Greens - 8%

This more or less confirms my hunch that the Nanos poll was an outlier. The results for Ontario and Quebec breakdown like this, with AR first and SC second:


Conservatives - 42%/41%
Liberals - 40%/37%
NDP - 12%/16%
Greens - 5%/7%


Bloc Québécois - 37%/36%
Liberals - 25%/29%
Conservatives - 19%/17%
NDP - 12%/11%
Greens - 5%/8%

If it is as close as it looks in Ontario and if the Liberals are doing so much better than the Conservatives in Quebec, an election result could be much closer than the national numbers show.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Some New Polls

Two new polls have been released today from Ipsos-Reid and Nanos. The details of the Ipsos-Reid poll aren't available yet, but you can read the Nanos poll here. The site isn't quite ready to start projecting, but when a few more polls come out I should be ready. I'll definitely try to get the site up and running before the budget vote.

In any case, here are the national results:


Conservatives - 39%
Liberals - 28%
NDP - 15%
Greens - 9%
Bloc Quebecois - 8%


Liberals - 34%
Conservatives - 33%
NDP - 19%
Bloc Quebecois - 7%
Greens - 7%

That is a large discrepancy, and if I had to guess which is the more accurate I'd say Ipsos-Reid. The Nanos poll has some odd numbers in Quebec which look to be an outlier result to me (LPC 39%, BQ 29%, CPC 17%, NDP 14%, GPC 1%).

Stay tuned for the site updates.