A year after the federal election, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and Thomas Mulcair’s New Democrats are almost neck-and-neck in national voting intentions. But while the gain for the main opposition party is well within the norm, the Prime Minister has lost more support than he did one year after his election victories in 2006 and 2008.
A weighted average of all public polls puts Conservative support at 34 per cent nationwide and narrowly ahead of the New Democrats, who trail with 32.9 per cent support. This represents a gain of 2.3 points over the last year for the NDP but a loss of 5.6 points for the Conservatives since the election. Compared to Mr. Harper’s past performances, this is a dramatic drop.
You can read the rest of the article, which includes a seat projection, at The Globe and Mail website here.
These latest set of numbers are heavily based upon the two latest polls by Nanos Research and Forum Research, reported by the Globe and Mail and Toronto Star, respectively. Both put the gap between the Conservatives and the New Democrats at between two and three points, the only difference being that the Tories led in the first and the NDP in the second. This, effectively, makes them almost tied.
What better time, then, to begin tracking federal voting intentions. The chart at the top of this page shows the weighted average of all federal polls. These are unadjusted - they are simply the average weighted by date, sample size, and record of polling firm accuracy. They serve as a good one-stop to see how the parties are doing. I will update these numbers as new polls are released, and the chart will be moved off to the right-hand column once the projection for the next provincial election (Quebec) is ready.
With more than three years to go before the next federal election, clearly the stakes are somewhat low. But Canadian politics is now a bit of a marathon (every party admits the campaigning continues between the writs), and it should be fascinating to watch how party support rises and falls over the next few years.
Some might consider that the numbers are meaningless this far out from an election. To them I say that the public opinion of Canadians is never meaningless, and that these federal polls act as an on-going barometer of what Canadians think of what the parties are doing. Those that, for instance, dismissed the NDP's decline in Quebec during the leadership race were dangerously dismissing the dissatisfaction Quebecers were having with that leadership race and the potential for anyone but Thomas Mulcair to come out on top. Those who today dismiss the Conservative slip are ignoring that a good deal of Canadians who had previously supported the Tories are unhappy with what the government is doing. These are important things to know - and what's best is that the polls are an objective measure.
I will not be maintaining an on-going seat projection. Along with the time it takes to keep a seat projection up to date, there is the problem of the boundary changes. Only once the new seats are decided and the votes have been transposed will I begin to consider maintaining an on-going projection. In the meantime, these check-ins with the Globe and Mail, projections for individual polls, and the seat projections that go along with the monthly poll averages should more than suffice!
Monday, April 30, 2012
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Liberals, PQ neck-and-neck
Two polls released this week show the gap between the Parti Québécois and the Liberals has narrowed to virtual nothingness, with one survey putting the parties in a tie and the other giving the Liberals a two-point lead.
CROP was last in the field Mar. 15-19, and since then the PQ has dropped six points to 28%, behind the Liberals who are unchanged at 30%. The CAQ is up one point to 25%, while Québec Solidaire trails with 8% support.
That is a big drop for the Parti Québécois in only a month, and it took place throughout the province.
They still lead among francophones, but they are down nine points to 32%. They are at 32% as well in the regions of Quebec, a drop of 10 points.
The Liberals lead among non-francophones with 69% (-7) and in Montreal with 34%, down two points. The Coalition Avenir Québec is ahead in Quebec City with 40%, a gain of three points.
But this points to a close race everywhere - the margin between first and third among francophones is only 10 points, and in no part of the province does one party hold a very significant lead (Quebec City has a small sample size).
Forum shows the race neck-and-neck at 35% apiece for the PQ and the Liberals, but the CAQ is well behind with only 16%.
The PQ leads among francophones with 39% support and in the regions of Quebec with about 42%. The Liberals are ahead with 69% among non-francophones, 41% in Montreal, and 32% in Quebec City.
But Forum and CROP only really agree that the race between the PQ and the Liberals is close, and that the Liberals have the edge in Montreal and the PQ in the regions. Apart from that, there is little that is similar with CROP's polling.
And if we compare the trends by looking back at Forum's poll taken on Mar. 21, the disagreements are even greater. Though Forum has the PQ down six points since that poll, echoing CROP's drop, they have the Liberals up six points and the CAQ down three.
Forum sees the Liberals up in Montreal and the PQ and CAQ down, while Forum has the Liberals and PQ down and the CAQ up. In Quebec City, the CAQ is either way behind with 20% and dropping (Forum) or at 40% and gaining (CROP).
It either points to a large degree of volatility, or some odd results. What we can say definitively, however, is that the Parti Québécois has lost support over the last month and that they are effectively tied with the Liberals.
But either way, the Parti Québécois wins a minority government. With CROP's numbers, the PQ takes 49 seats with the Liberals winning 46, the CAQ winning 28, and Québec Solidaire winning two.
The PQ wins 15 seats in Montreal, one in Quebec City, and 33 in the rest of the province, while the Liberals win 32 in Montreal, three in Quebec City, and 11 in the rest of the province. The CAQ manages nine seats in and around Montreal, seven in Quebec City, and 12 in the regions.
With Forum's numbers, however, the PQ wins 60 seats to the Liberals' 58, with only five going to the CAQ. It is really the difference in opinion on where CAQ stands that separates the two polls.
In this scenario, the PQ wins 21 seats in Montreal, two in Quebec City, and 37 in the rest of the province. The Liberals win 35 seats in Montreal, seven in Quebec City, and 16 in the rest of the province, while the CAQ wins two seats in Quebec City and three in the regions.
It is difficult to bring these two polls together, but what does seem clear is that the Liberals have a big advantage in Montreal, while the Parti Québécois wins their seats primarily outside of the two cities. That makes the battleground the suburbs in between, and the role the CAQ plays becomes important at that point. If they are doing as well as they are in CROP's polling, then the suburbs become a three-way contest and the party can challenge the PQ in some of the more conservative rural parts of Quebec. If the CAQ is doing as badly as they are in Forum's polling, than they won't be a factor at all.
But Quebecers seem ready for an election. Forum puts support for a new vote at 49%, which is quite high. Satisfaction with the government is still incredibly low, and Charest's personal approval rating is lower than either Marois's or Legault's. Nevertheless, incumbents have won all seven of the provincial and federal elections held in the last 12 months.
That is a big drop for the Parti Québécois in only a month, and it took place throughout the province.
They still lead among francophones, but they are down nine points to 32%. They are at 32% as well in the regions of Quebec, a drop of 10 points.
The Liberals lead among non-francophones with 69% (-7) and in Montreal with 34%, down two points. The Coalition Avenir Québec is ahead in Quebec City with 40%, a gain of three points.
But this points to a close race everywhere - the margin between first and third among francophones is only 10 points, and in no part of the province does one party hold a very significant lead (Quebec City has a small sample size).
The PQ leads among francophones with 39% support and in the regions of Quebec with about 42%. The Liberals are ahead with 69% among non-francophones, 41% in Montreal, and 32% in Quebec City.
But Forum and CROP only really agree that the race between the PQ and the Liberals is close, and that the Liberals have the edge in Montreal and the PQ in the regions. Apart from that, there is little that is similar with CROP's polling.
And if we compare the trends by looking back at Forum's poll taken on Mar. 21, the disagreements are even greater. Though Forum has the PQ down six points since that poll, echoing CROP's drop, they have the Liberals up six points and the CAQ down three.
Forum sees the Liberals up in Montreal and the PQ and CAQ down, while Forum has the Liberals and PQ down and the CAQ up. In Quebec City, the CAQ is either way behind with 20% and dropping (Forum) or at 40% and gaining (CROP).
It either points to a large degree of volatility, or some odd results. What we can say definitively, however, is that the Parti Québécois has lost support over the last month and that they are effectively tied with the Liberals.
The PQ wins 15 seats in Montreal, one in Quebec City, and 33 in the rest of the province, while the Liberals win 32 in Montreal, three in Quebec City, and 11 in the rest of the province. The CAQ manages nine seats in and around Montreal, seven in Quebec City, and 12 in the regions.
With Forum's numbers, however, the PQ wins 60 seats to the Liberals' 58, with only five going to the CAQ. It is really the difference in opinion on where CAQ stands that separates the two polls.
In this scenario, the PQ wins 21 seats in Montreal, two in Quebec City, and 37 in the rest of the province. The Liberals win 35 seats in Montreal, seven in Quebec City, and 16 in the rest of the province, while the CAQ wins two seats in Quebec City and three in the regions.
It is difficult to bring these two polls together, but what does seem clear is that the Liberals have a big advantage in Montreal, while the Parti Québécois wins their seats primarily outside of the two cities. That makes the battleground the suburbs in between, and the role the CAQ plays becomes important at that point. If they are doing as well as they are in CROP's polling, then the suburbs become a three-way contest and the party can challenge the PQ in some of the more conservative rural parts of Quebec. If the CAQ is doing as badly as they are in Forum's polling, than they won't be a factor at all.
But Quebecers seem ready for an election. Forum puts support for a new vote at 49%, which is quite high. Satisfaction with the government is still incredibly low, and Charest's personal approval rating is lower than either Marois's or Legault's. Nevertheless, incumbents have won all seven of the provincial and federal elections held in the last 12 months.
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