Monday, August 10, 2015

July 2015 federal polling averages

Now that the campaign has begun, it is a little unusual to look back on the polls in July. But there were a lot of polls conducted last month: 13 in all, interviewing some 24,934 Canadians. So let's look at the numbers, for the sake of continuity at least.

The New Democrats led in July with an average of 32.1% support, down 0.5 points from where they were in June. The Conservatives were up 2.8 points, a significant jump, putting them at 31.4%. The Liberals were down 0.5 points to 25.8%.

The Greens were down 0.3 points to 5.1%, while the Bloc Québécois was down 0.7 points to 4.8%. Another 0.8% of Canadians said they would vote for another party.

The NDP was in front in British Columbia with their best score on record (going back to January 2009), up 2.8 points to 40.5%. They have made gains worth about 16 points over the last three months. The Conservatives were up 1.1 points to 28%, while the Liberals were down 1.2 points to 22.4%. That's their third consecutive month of decline. That is also the case for the Greens, down 1.3 points to 8.7%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives were up for the third consecutive month, picking up 0.6 points to hit 48.6%. The NDP was down 1.1 points to 27.5% and the Liberals were down 0.4 points to 16.8%. The Greens were up 1.5 points to 5.1%.

The Conservatives also lead in the Prairies with 38.8%, up 0.3 points from June. The New Democrats were up for the fourth consecutive month, up 2.1 points to 29.8%. The Liberals were down 0.3 points to 26.1%, while the Greens were down 1.6 points to 4.3%.

In Ontario, the Conservatives were up 3.4 points to 35.2%, followed by the Liberals at 29.9% (down 0.2 points, and their sixth consecutive month of decline). The NDP was down 2.7 points to 28.6%, while the Greens were down 0.7 points to 2.8%.

Things were relatively stable in Quebec, where the New Democrats continue to lead with 35.7% (up 0.8 points). The Liberals were down 0.5 points to 21.8% and the Bloc was down 3.1 points to 19.3%. The Conservatives were up 3.5 points to 19.2%, while the Greens were down 0.7 points to 2.8%.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals dropped for the fifth consecutive month, down 2.7 points to 38.4%. The NDP was up for the fourth month, gaining 3.7 points to hit 31.8%. The Conservatives were up 0.8 points to 24%, while the Greens were up 1.3 points to 4.4%.

These levels of support would deliver 130 seats to the Conservatives, 121 to the New Democrats, 84 to the Liberals, two to the Bloc, and one to the Greens.

Compared to June, that represents a drop of six seats apiece for the NDP and Liberals, a slide of one for the Bloc, and a gain of 13 for the Conservatives.

The Conservatives picked up eight seats in Ontario, two in Quebec, and one apiece in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada, and the North. They were down one seat in the Prairies.

The NDP was down five seats in Ontario, two in Alberta, and one in Quebec. They were up one seat in B.C. and one in the Prairies.

The Liberals were down three seats in Ontario, two in Quebec, and one in both Atlantic Canada and the North. They were up one seat in Alberta.

So this was the lay of the land before the race kicked off in earnest. A close race between the NDP and Conservatives with the Liberals losing momentum, and nobody close to a majority government. At least, for now.


  1. If the Tories win, they'll do it by driving down the support of their opponent.

    If the race were a three-way tie right now, I'd say there was no path to victory for them, as they would be unlikely to be able to drive down the support of both the NDP and the Liberals.

    And there may not be a path to victory for the Tories regardless.

    But if there is, it looks like this. With the Liberals seemingly taking themselves out of the race (though we'll see how things look after the debate), the Tories just need to reduce the NDP voter turnout enough to claim another victory.

    I don't think anyone - even the most partisan Conservative - thinks that the Tories can win this thing by convincing people to vote for them. Because that's not going to happen. They need to maximize the turnout of CPC voters, and minimize the turnout of NDP voters.

    Again, I don't think they can realistically minimize the turnout of both NDP and Liberal voters (I don't think Green support particularly matters - I hope for more of that because I like some of their policies, but I don't think it will make a difference to the outcome of the election), so they need to work in an environment where only one of those two things is necessary. And that seems to be the case now (but, again, we'll see if that lasts).

  2. And now Harper is saying he will safety religious minorities !! That's actually part of the Constitution/Charter Stephen. Move on !!

    1. Unless Harper specifically mentions protecting non-religious people, I don't want him mentioning religion.

      Every time Harper mentions religion, I like him a bit less. When the only solace I can take with regard to his religious beliefs is "at least he's not a young-earth creationist like Stockwell Day was," that's mighty thin sauce.

    2. 100% agree on that Ira. Religion has not been an issue in this country for a long time, we have an enviable record on protecting religions. This from Harper is just another SCARE tactic and must be attacked as such !!

  3. With my model, this gives (compared to June):

    129 CPC (+5)
    120 NDP (-3)
    83 LPC (0)
    5 BQ (-2)
    1 GPC (0)

    By region, it gives:

    Atlantic (no change)
    17 LPC
    9 CPC
    6 NDP

    54 NDP (+1)
    12 LPC (0)
    7 CPC (+1)
    5 BQ (-2)

    58 CPC (+4)
    37 LPC (0)
    26 NDP (-4)

    Prairies (no change)
    12 CPC
    10 NDP
    6 LPC

    Alberta (no change)
    27 CPC
    4 NDP
    3 LPC

    British Columbia (no change)
    19 NDP
    15 CPC
    7 LPC
    1 GPC

    Territories (no change)
    1 CPC
    1 NDP
    1 LPC

    Overall, it makes July a very stable month in voting intentions, it seems. Now, let's see how the campaign will affect the situation.

  4. Now we do have one situation that I think has the possibility of turning really, really nasty. That's the Harper-Wynne thing. Neither of these will back off, both are "attack dogs" so brace yourselves for some really nasty stuff. Neither will cry "Wolf" !! Neither can win either.

    1. If Harper's attacking Wynne, it's because he thinks it benefits him politically.

      It will probably help him in parts of Ontario, and parts of the rest of Canada. Whether it's enough of those parts remains to be seen.

      The CPC has a long history of very carefully targeted campaining. Every tax cut and benefit cheque is aimed at a subpopulation where they think they can sway some people. The attacks on Wynne are probably intended to swing ridings in the parts of Ontario where Wynne is especially unpopular.

  5. One thing that I have not heard from any commentators, eleven weeks of lectures from Harper can only serve to increase the number of voters who are sick of him.

    If asked by any pollster, I will lie and state that I love SH but won't vote because I believe he will win hands down. My actual beliefs and intentions are private.

  6. What a circus. We might be looking at yet another minority government? Something has to change in Canada. Maybe its time to let Quebec go. That would make the results:
    CPC 120 (46.0%)
    LPC 70
    NDP 69
    GPC 1

    Then at least its 46% instead of 38.5%. I almost would say Id rather the NDP lead just to stop this nonsense, despite the fact that I am a Harper supporter.

    1. What's wrong with minority governments? They've averaged lower deficits/larger surpluses than majority governments, and they've accomplished a heck of a lot too. I think most people on both sides of the political spectrum preferred Harper from 06-11 to his majority term as well.

  7. Nevermind, I'm an idiot.


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