Friday, February 19, 2016

The Week in Polls: Wall and Pallister lead, Liberals strong in Quebec, Notley's approval down

The next election on the calendar is in Saskatchewan. The province will vote on April 4, and the campaign itself should officially start in the first week of March. Accordingly, I've launched the vote and seat projections for Saskatchewan.

They show a big advantage for Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party. They are projected to win 44 to 52 seats at the likely ranges, with the New Democrats taking between nine and 17 seats.

These new numbers are driven by the latest numbers from Mainstreet Research. Its poll published earlier this week pegged the Saskatchewan Party to have 56% support among decided and leaning voters, compared to 32% for the NDP. The Liberals and Greens trailed with just 8% and 4%, respectively.

Wall leads in every part of the province, though the NDP is in a better position to compete for seats in Regina and Saskatoon.

PCs continue to hold lead in Manitoba

Another new poll from Mainstreet in neighbouring Manitoba also shows little change in voting intentions as the next election approaches. Manitobans go to the polls on April 19.

The survey from Mainstreet found the PCs leading with 51% among decided and leaning voters, followed by the New Democrats at 21% and the Liberals at 20%. There was very little change from Mainstreet's previous survey from January.
With a 20-point lead in Winnipeg, the PCs seem to be in little danger. 

I will be launching the vote and seat projections for Manitoba soon.

Federal, provincial Liberals lead in CROP Quebec poll

Following on the heels of last week's poll from Léger, CROP is out with new numbers for the province. Like Léger, they also show both Philippe Couillard's and Justin Trudeau's Liberals in a good position in the province.

CROP federal poll in Quebec
Trudeau's Liberals led in the province with 48% support, followed at a distance by the New Democrats at 24%, the Bloc Québécois at 16%, and the Conservatives at just 9%.

Among francophones, the Liberals were down to 41% support, with the NDP and Bloc up to 28% and 19%, respectively.

The Liberals led in every part of the province, though their margin over the NDP in and around Quebec City was just two points.

CROP provincial poll in Quebec
At the provincial level, Couillard's Liberals were ahead in the poll with 36%, followed by the Parti Québécois at 31%, the Coalition Avenir Québec at 18%, and Québec Solidaire at 12%.

Compared to last month, this represents a swing of four points from QS to the PQ.

Among francophones, the PQ was up slightly to 36%, while the Liberals were at 26%, the CAQ at 21%, and QS at 13%.

The Liberals were well ahead on the island of Montreal, but only narrowly in front of the PQ in the Montreal suburbs and the regions of Quebec. The CAQ led in Quebec City.

Trudeau still favoured as PM, Ambrose trends up

The weekly Nanos numbers on who Canadians prefer as prime minister continue to give Justin Trudeau a huge lead. But Rona Ambrose is inching forward.

Trudeau led in the poll with 51%, with Ambrose at 15% and Tom Mulcair at 11%.

Though Ambrose's numbers continue to head in a positive direction, the change from month-to-month has not been statistically significant.

Trump leads South Carolina, Clinton narrowly favoured in Nevada

The latest forecasts from suggest that Donald Trump will win the South Carolina Republican primary quite easily tomorrow. He leads with 31% in FiveThirtyEight's "polls-plus" forecast, followed by Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio at 19% apiece.

Jeb Bush stands at 12%, John Kasich at 10%, and Ben Carson at 7%. 

Compared to when we last checked in last week, the movement in FiveThirtyEight's forecast has been towards Kasich (+5) and away from Rubio (-4).

There have been few polls out for the Democratic caucus in Nevada, but FiveThirtyEight forecasts Hillary Clinton to take 53%, with Bernie Sanders capturing around 46%.

My CBC articles this week