(Note that the provincial polling averaged for January have also been updated. Scroll to the bottom of this post.)
Three national polls and one Quebec-only poll was conducted in the month of January, totaling a little more than 10,000 interviews.
December 2015 averages. The Conservatives followed with an average of 28.4% support, down 1.2 points.
The New Democrats were up 2.1 points to 16.4%, followed by the Greens at 5.7% (up 0.3 points) and the Bloc Québécois at 4% (also up 0.3 points).
This marks two consecutive months of decline for the Liberals, which has coincided with two consecutive months of increase for the New Democrats.
But it should be noted that the Conservatives never averaged anything close to 45% throughout their tenure in office, while the New Democrats, at just over 16%, are where they were a few months before the 2011 federal election.
The Conservatives were ahead in Alberta with 52.1%, trailed by the Liberals at 32.2% and the NDP at 11.1%. The Greens averaged 3.6% support here.
In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives narrowly edged out the Liberals with 40.3% to 39.7% support. The NDP followed at length with 14.8%, while the Greens were at 5%.
In the West, the Liberals would likely win 33 to 51 seats with these levels of support, largely thanks to their strong numbers in British Columbia. The Conservatives would take between 41 and 59 seats and the New Democrats between eight and 15 seats, virtually all of them in British Columbia. The Greens could take between one and two seats, also only in B.C.
The Liberals dropped for the second consecutive month in Ontario, falling slightly to 48.7% support. The Conservatives took advantage and were up to 30.8%, while the NDP was at 15.2% and the Greens at 4.7%.
This would likely deliver between 74 and 98 seats to the Liberals, with the Conservatives winning between 18 and 38 seats and the New Democrats between four and 10.
In Quebec, the Liberals led with 45.5% support, with the NDP in second at 19.9%. The Conservatives stood at 15.5%, the Bloc Québécois at 14.7%, and the Greens at 3.8%. With these numbers, the Liberals would virtually sweep Quebec with between 59 and 70 seats, leaving eight to 13 seats for the Conservatives and zero to three seats apiece for the NDP and Bloc.
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals were ahead with 57% against 24.1% for the Conservatives, 12.7% for the New Democrats, and 6.1% for the Greens. The Liberals would likely win between 27 and 29 seats, with three to four seats going to the Conservatives and zero to one seat to the NDP.
The Conservatives would win between 70 and 114 seats (they now hold 99) while the NDP would be reduced from 44 seats to between 12 and 29.
You can see that despite the small drop in projected seats for the Conservatives, their maximum projected range has inched up since December, and is significantly higher than in December. The NDP has seen a steady increase at their maximum range.
The Liberals are still coming down from their post-election highs, as might be expected. They have dropped for two consecutive months in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada — but in all of these regions the party is still over 40% support. Nothing for them to worry about just yet, as the party is still comfortably ahead of the 39.5% of the vote the Liberals captured in October.
Though the Conservatives were up again in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, they were mostly holding steady. The NDP had upticks in British Columbia and Quebec, but was also wobbling back and forth in Ontario and Alberta.
This could be the holding pattern for some time, as Canadians checkout of the day-to-day political coverage and withhold their judgment until the Conservatives (and possible the New Democrats) deal with their leadership issues.
Provincial polling monthly averages chart updated below
(click to magnify)
- Saskatchewan Party led the NDP by 59% to 28%.
- Manitoba Progressive Conservatives ahead with 48% to 23.5% for the Liberals and 21.5% for the New Democrats.
- Quebec Liberals in front with 35% to 27% for the Parti Québécois, 19% for the Coalition Avenir Québec, and 16% for Québec Solidaire.