Saturday, April 2, 2016

The Pollcast: Election night and beyond in Saskatchewan


Voters in Saskatchewan will head to the ballot boxes on Monday in an election whose outcome is in little doubt. But though the polls suggest the Saskatchewan Party is well-positioned to romp to another majority victory, these voters will have the final say.

What will they decide?

Joining me again to break down what to expect on election night is the CBC's Stefani Langenegger.

You can listen to the latest episode of the Pollcast here.

Saskatchewan Party lead endures in new poll


With only days to go in the Saskatchewan election campaign, a new poll suggests that voting intentions are not budging — and that's good news for the leading Saskatchewan Party.

Insightrix published its latest numbers on Thursday, showing virtually no change from an earlier poll conducted a week before the leaders' debate.

You can read the rest of this article on the latest Saskatchewan polls here.

Mulcair's support down from pre-election high among NDP voters as he faces leadership vote


NDP Leader Tom Mulcair received a bit of good news this week, getting the public support of the leaders of five big unions on Tuesday.

At the party's convention in Edmonton on April 8-10, however, Mulcair will require more than that: he'll likely need the support of a significant majority of the party's rank and file to stay on as leader.

Knowing how the NDP's membership, let alone the 1,500 delegates who will be making the trip to the Alberta capital, would vote on the question of Mulcair's leadership is virtually impossible. But polling conducted since he became leader in March 2012 does provide a glimpse of how NDP supporters feel about Mulcair.

You can read the rest of this article here.

The Pollcast: Whither the NDP in Manitoba's election campaign?


The Manitoba election campaign is entering its third week, but have the dynamics changed at all since it began?

Joining me again to discuss how the campaign is unfolding is the CBC's Cameron MacIntosh.

The narrative of the race continues to be about the split of the vote to the left of the leading Progressive Conservatives. Nothing is more emblematic of that battle than the race in Fort Rouge, where Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari is facing off against the NDP's star candidate, Wab Kinew.

Adding to the complications for the New Democrats is timing: a Saskatchewan election that could go badly for the NDP on April 4, and a federal party convention in Edmonton from April 8 to 10 that could go badly for Tom Mulcair — distractions that the Manitoba New Democrats don't need as they fight against the odds for re-election.

You can listen to the latest episode of the podcast here.

The Pollcast: The final stretch in Saskatchewan


The Saskatchewan provincial election is entering its final stages. But will the campaign go out with a bang or a whimper?

Joining me again to break down the final week of the election campaign is the CBC's Stefani Langenegger.

Did the leaders' debate move any votes, or are these last days of the campaign just about ensuring each party gets its supporters out to cast a ballot? How likely is it that turnout in Saskatchewan will go up, replicating the increase in turnout experienced in the last federal election?

You can listen to the latest episode of the Pollcast here.

14 comments:

  1. From B.C. that was a quick campaign with little national interest. Wall looks certain to be re-elected and the NDP failed to make any headlines. The only curiosity is what Broten will do after his defeat? Will he try and stick around or resign on election night?

    I think Eric's projection a little generous to the NDP if they don't break a third they'll win less than 10 seats.

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    1. Broten has performed massively better than his predecessor. There's little reaosn to jettison him.

      In some campaigns, the losing leader will demonstrate that he is useless (like Dwain Lingonfelter did), but Broten hasn't done that.

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    2. Got to agree with Ira here. Broten has not been a star but he is at least maintaining the party's numbers and not committed any major gaffes that has cost him a lead (he never had one) or whatever remaining respect people have for the NDP. If he manages to maybe bump up a seat or two or at least not lose any, he'll have a good foundation to rest upon and say that, hey, at least I didn't screw up as badly as Dwain did.

      This was always going to be an uphill climb for the NDP no matter the leader, Wall simply commands too much respect and the job losses are too new, people are more afraid than angry right now. Wall benefits from that, but who knows where he will be a year from now if the situation doesn't improve. Then Broten's chance is clear.

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    3. According to Eric's graphs the SK NDP has not held a lead in the polls since sometime before 2010. It is true successive SK. NDP leaders have polled poorly but, how this lacklustre performance over the better part of a decade somehow justifies keeping another under-performing leader in Broten is beyond me? If the graphs are analysed Broten has not performed massively better than either Dwain Lingenfelter or Calvert but rather, has kept the seasoned base of the party (roughly 25%). None of the last three NDP leaders have been competitive against Wall and the Saskatchewan Party so perhaps you are right that a change in the NDP leader is not relevant. Keeping a defeated leader in the hope Wall retires may be the Sk. NDP's best bet.

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  2. Eric,
    Is there some reason you're not including the Mainstreet poll for the Saskatchewan election of March 23 (http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/3681-2/) that showed the Sask Party leading 61-35?

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    1. Yes, that was a poll of debate-watchers only, not all Saskatchewan people.

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  3. This is a bit odd. A blog where we are meant to discuss the opinion polls, but we don't have any for Manitoba. So perhaps we should discuss that. Mainstreet pledged to poll and publish weekly during the election campaign. They polled on 12th March and they polled on 19th March, both times reporting an even contest for second place. If they polled on 26th March, then they are puzzlingly late in publishing, even when you take account of Easter. Perhaps they didn't poll on 26th or perhaps they did and are not going to publish, perhaps because their commissioners are not that keen to publish the results. If that were the case, perhaps it was because the poll placed a gap of at least 5% between the Liberals and the NDP. As for Probe, we have not heard from them this year.

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  4. Poll out Thursday showing virtual tie for second place with the Liberals barely ahead of the NDP PCs hold 20 point lead. Brian Pallister needs to campaign hard and keep the momentum up. His greatest enemy at the moment is the assumption the PCs will win and his supporters stay home.

    It would be interesting if we had some data on how stable the voting intentions are. Are the 24% who respond they will vote Liberal certain to do so? If not what per centage if any could drift to the NDP or PCs? My sense is that people are tired of the NDP and that while some slippage is probable it will not have a significant or meaningful impact on the result.

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    1. I'm curious about the relative efficiency of the NDP vs Liberal vote.

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    2. The Liberal vote is not very efficient as they are unlikely to win a single seat.

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  5. Having just come back from Saskatchewan and Alberta Saskatcheweigians do not seem to be embracing low oil prices in the same manner as their next door neighbours. In Alberta "the thrill is gone" a noticeable pall is in the air, people are in the dumps government managers are worried about their jobs. Saskatchewan by contrast was more up beat. Perhaps the doom and gloom quotient is relative to the size of the resource industry in both provinces-Alberta being more dependent on the economics of oil experiences more gloom compared with the more diverse economy of its neighbour? I don't know.

    What I do know; if the oil glut and resource glut in general continues Wall will be very lucky to go to the polls now as opposed to a year's time when conditions may not be so favourable to a sitting Government.

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  6. With the current vote projection, I predict 9 seats for the NDP 52 for the Saskatchewan Party.

    The big question is what will Broten do upon his defeat? A good case can be made for staying around allowing voters more time to warm up to him and an equally good case will be made that he had his shot failed rather spectacularly and needs to go.

    Perhaps the catalyst in deciding the NDP leader's fate are the intentions of Brad Wall-will he run again in four years time? Will he leave provincial politics and become the national Tory leader? Will he retire before the end of his term? After 3 majority victories in a row it certainly seems possible he may simply become premier-for-life and so what Mr. Wall decides to do has perhaps the greatest impact on whether or not the SK NDP get a new leader or keep Mr. Broten after Monday.

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  7. there was nothing more desperate than running Wab Kinew against Bokhari. the stink of Mulcair also looms large over Mantioba's NDP.

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  8. I still think that Broten will step down unless he gains a significant number of seats which is unlikely.

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