Thursday, April 7, 2016

The Pollcast: The future of the NDP and Tom Mulcair

Tom Mulcair will be fighting for his political life at this weekend's NDP convention in Edmonton. But the decisions the New Democrats have to make about the future of the party go beyond just who they want as leader.

How do the New Democrats position themselves against a Liberal Party trying to crowd them out on the left? Does the path to electoral success lie to the centre or to the left of the political spectrum for the NDP?

Is U.S. Democratic Presidential candidate Bernie Sanders or UK Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn a model for the NDP to emulate, or cautionary tales?

And what impact could electoral reform have on the NDP?

Joining me to discuss the future of the NDP on the latest episode of the Pollcast is Ian Capstick, founding partner of Mediastyle and an NDP insider.

You can listen to the podcast here.

Manitoba Liberal support slides, PCs gain in new poll

A new poll suggests that support for the Manitoba Liberals is fragile and dropping, but it is the Progressive Conservatives, and not the New Democrats, who stand to benefit most.

The Mainstreet/Postmedia survey, published Thursday morning, shows the PCs holding the lead with 50 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared to 24 per cent for the New Democrats, 17 per cent for the Liberals, and 9 per cent for the Greens.

You can read the rest of this article on the new Mainstreet poll here.

Brad Wall's victory cements his place at centre of conservative movement

The reverberations from the Saskatchewan provincial election won't be felt so much in how the results have changed things, but rather in what they have confirmed.

Brad Wall's third consecutive majority victory — in which he nearly matched the record-setting 64 per cent of the vote he captured in 2011 — keeps the Saskatchewan premier at the forefront of the conservative movement in Canada.

And Cam Broten's performance as leader of the New Democrats, who were themselves dealt their worst popular vote showing in the party's storied history in the province, may be the first disappointment in what could be a very discouraging month for the NDP.

You can read the rest of this article here.

Brad Wall wins another majority in Saskatchewan's electoral déjà-vu

Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party was re-elected to a majority government last night, taking over 60 per cent of the vote and sending the NDP leader to defeat in his own constituency.

Apparently, Groundhog Day in Saskatchewan has moved to April.

The results of Monday's provincial election in Saskatchewan were very much like the results of the election that came before it. Strikingly so, in fact.

You can read my parsing of the results here.

Brad Wall poised for another majority victory in Saskatchewan

The Saskatchewan provincial election campaign ends just as it began, with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party under Brad Wall enjoying a commanding lead in the polls.

The CBC Saskatchewan Poll Tracker, including all polls published to Saturday, gives the Saskatchewan Party the support of 59.9 per cent of voters, with the New Democrats trailing at 30.7 per cent. The Liberals and Greens are projected to have 4.3 per cent support each.

That is only marginally different from where the numbers stood when the legislature was dissolved on March 8. At the time, the Poll Tracker pegged the Saskatchewan Party to be ahead with 53.5 to 34.5 per cent support.

You can read the rest of this article, my final pre-vote analysis of the Saskatchewan provincial election, here.

(The Poll Tracker will be updated with any new polls published on Sunday. Check here for the latest updates.)