Friday, May 6, 2016

Donald Trump set for nomination, but Hillary Clinton still poised to beat him

Donald Trump has finally vanquished his foes in the race for the Republican nomination and is now the party's presumptive nominee. But polls suggest the White House remains as elusive a prize for him as it was when his nomination victory was still in doubt.

That's because Donald Trump is the most disliked candidate for the presidency in recent memory. Despite Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton's own weaknesses as a candidate — she has high unfavourable ratings and is an establishment candidate in an anti-establishment election year — she is still the odds-on favourite to win in November.

You can read the rest of this article here.

You can also listen to the latest episode of the Pollcast. I was joined by Keith Boag, the CBC's senior reporter in Washington, D.C., to talk about where the presidential election goes from here.

Ambrose, MacKay, or O'Leary? What leadership polls tell us about the Conservative race

Rona Ambrose was chosen as the Conservative Party's interim leader six months ago, thereby ruling herself out of contention for the permanent job.

But just as quickly as some Conservatives began to organize to change the rules to allow her to run for the permanent leadership, Ambrose has ruled herself out yet again.

A recent poll, however, suggests she would be the favourite choice of Conservative supporters, which might increase the pressure on Ambrose to go back on her pledge. But what can really be gleaned from leadership polls with more than a year to go before the actual vote?

You can read the rest of this article here.

Pierre Karl Péladeau's resignation may help the Parti Québécois

In resigning as leader less than a year after winning the post, Pierre Karl Péladeau may have solved a potential problem for the Parti Québécois — his own leadership.

Péladeau's time as leader of the Parti Québécois was tumultuous, even by the standards of the PQ.

His political career was launched with a raised fist for Quebec independence, the beginning of a tailspin that took the PQ from front-runner in the 2014 provincial campaign to its worst result since 1970.

You can read the rest of this analysis on PKP's polls here.