Wednesday, July 27, 2016

The Pollcast: The DNC in the City of Brotherly Love

After the Republicans got their time in the spotlight last week in Cleveland, now it's the Democrats' turn. 

But will the Democratic convention in Philadelphia this week give them the unity that Hillary Clinton needs to take on Donald Trump?

National polls indicate that Donald Trump did get a boost coming out of his party's convention. That's turned the race to the White House into one that is increasingly difficult to call.

But convention bumps are historically common. If Clinton gets the same bump out of her convention, Trump will once again be this campaign's underdog.

But with the Democratic Party still divided between Clinton supporters and those backing Bernie Sanders, that might be a big 'if'.

Joining me from Philadelphia on this week's episode of the Pollcast is Keith Boag, the CBC's senior reporter in Washington, D.C.

You can listen to this episode here and subscribe to future episodes here.

Donald Trump gets a convention bump, but Hillary Clinton's could be next

Thanks to a bump from the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump has closed the gap on Hillary Clinton in U.S. polls. But with the Democratic National Convention now in full swing, will Clinton find herself comfortably in the lead again this time next week?

According to the CBC's new Presidential Poll Tracker, which you can follow throughout the campaign to see where the race to the White House stands, Clinton retains a narrow lead with 44.6 per cent to Trump's 42.8 per cent in a weighted average of polls.

Since the convention got underway, this represents a drop of 0.4 points for Clinton and a gain of 1.8 points for Trump.

You can read the rest of this analysis of U.S. polls here. You can also check out the newly launched Presidential Poll Tracker by clicking on the banner at the top of this page.

The Poll Tracker will be updated daily, and will feature state-by-state projections soon. In the meantime, my analyses (like today's) will feature the state of the electoral college map as well as where the polls stand in the closest states.

Canadians feel men have easier time in politics, but women have the chops, poll suggests

As the Democratic Party is set this week to officially nominate a woman for the U.S. presidency — a first for a major party in America — a newly published poll shows that Canadians agree that men have an easier time getting elected to public office than women, though men are less likely to see obstacles to the election of female candidates. 

And in addition to differences in views by gender, younger women tend to see their potential political futures differently than older women — namely, that the system is stacked more unfairly against them.

You can read the rest of this article on the new poll from the Angus Reid Institute here.


  1. I like your analysis, Eric! Very thorough. When are we going to see a map of which states each candidate is currently leading in?

    1. Thanks! The article today does have a map of the states, and we'll be adding state-by-state projections to the Poll Tracker soon. We wanted to roll this out with the conventions and the state-level interactive isn't ready yet.

    2. Agreed, I've been here reading this blog for years and very much appreciate all your hard work. Still wish I could upvote and downvote comments though....

  2. Are you at all concerned by the extent to which your US electoral college forecast differs from 538's US electoral college forecast?

    Because they see a much closer race than you do.

    1. No, it doesn't concern me. They have three different projections running, and since my projection (at this stage of the race) has a longer tail of polls it doesn't move as quickly as theirs.

      They also have Trump leading in OH, NC, FL, and NH. I don't have Clinton ahead by big margins in those states. If they flip over, which won't take much, my projection will look a lot more like 538's.

      I'd be more concerned if this was Nov. 7.

    2. Also, I'll point out that 538 is currently the most bullish on Trump. Here's a list of other forecasts:

      In fact, Silver wrote a piece today about why his projection disagrees with others:


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