Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Liberals hold on to honeymoon gains in national polls


Justin Trudeau's Liberals continue to enjoy more support today than they did in the 2015 federal election and have yet to see their poll numbers take a negative turn. But as the government enters the second year of its four-year mandate, it's making decisions that have the potential to disappoint some of its new supporters.

Over the last quarter, the Liberals have averaged 47.9 per cent support in national polls, a marginal gain over the previous quarter but up 8.4 points compared to election night. The Conservatives have averaged 28.7 per cent, down 3.2 points from the election, while the New Democrats have slipped 7.1 points to just 12.6 per cent support nationwide.

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4 comments:

  1. After the Kinder Morgan decision the Liberals are no longer at 46% in B.C. Joyce Murray is probably safe but, she may be the only one. They may have lost 20 points overnight. Look for the NDP to be around 25% in the next B.C. poll and the Liberals below 40%.

    The C.B.C. has done a good job reporting on are inadequate spill response in B.C. a 112 ton. tug sank off Bella Bella recently. The response was almost wholly inadequate approximately 80% of the fuel and oil on board was released into the environment! Oil tankers are in the range of 30,000 to several hundred thousand tons. Justin has promised 200 million dollars for spill response, that is a good start unfortunately, to have a world class spill prevention and clean-up regime in B.C. (one of Christy Clark's five requirements) we need at least ten times that amount. The infrastructure just doesn't exist at present and even if it did the logistics of getting equipment and crews to remote spill sites has not been worked out! It may not be possible for crews to reach a place like T'lell on Haida Gwaii within 24 hours of a spill. Both Clark and Trudeau want this pipeline built but, opposition is not subsiding; The Vancouver First Nations are opposed and regular British Columbians do not see how a pipeline will fulfill Canada's Paris commitments.

    This pipeline is a Godsend to John Horgan and the B.C. NDP who have been flat and unnoticed for most of the past year. Horgan is opposed and will run his campaign on a platform opposing Kinder Morgan and the federal Liberals. Today he is the under dog but, with the election still six months away almost anything is possible in the WACky world of BC politics. Should the NDP be elected TransMountain is dead.

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  2. First and foremost IMO if you have a spill the operator has to get it cleaned up as fast as possible and pay a substantial fine for having a spill. I suggested earlier a $10 million fine for a spill.

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    1. The Exxon Valdez spill was at least 37,000,000 L, so your $10M fine would over $0.27/L clean-up costs. I'd suggest something a bit more drastic. A 10% environmental withholding surcharge, so now about $5/barrel, and pays a 10% dividend to "clean" oil companies or uses the money to do actual environmental remediation. At 1% growth in principle and after 27 years without a significant accident, the fund would actually pay out more than the oil companies pay in.

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    2. Thanks for that info re Exxon Valdez. In thinking I'm now suggesting a $50million fine ?

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