Thursday, December 8, 2016

November 2016 federal polling averages

Below you will find the federal polling averages for the month of November. The averages combine four federal polls (Mainstreet, Forum, Abacus and EKOS) and one Quebec poll (CROP), altogether surveying 11,652 Canadians.

Compared to the October 2016 averages, the Liberals were down 0.1 point, the Conservatives were up 0.2 points, the New Democrats were up 0.1 point, and the Greens were up 0.4 points.

Monthly tracking chart

The tracking chart below shows the monthly polling averages stretching back to January 2009. Elections and campaigns as well as the arrival of new federal leaders are also included.


You can click or tap on the chart above to magnify it.

Seat projections

The chart below shows how many seats each of the parties would have won in an election held in this month. This seat projection uses the current first-past-the-post system. For full methodology, see here.

The tracking chart below shows the maximum and minimum seat ranges (which are wider than the likely ranges above) projected for each party since the 2015 federal election.
You can click or tap on the chart above to magnify it.

Seat projections with alternate electoral systems

The chart below shows potential seat outcomes using alternative electoral systems.

In addition to first-past-the-post (FPTP), the chart shows estimations for proportional representation (PR) and alternative voting (AV).

For PR, each province retains the number of seats they currently have. The number of seats each party receives is rounded up or down according to the vote share received in each province, and any leftover seats are awarded to the party that finished in first place in the region.

A very simple calculation is done for AV. Because the Liberals and New Democrats tend to be each other's second choice, they are awarded any seat where they are projected to be in first place (along with the Greens). Any seat that the Conservatives or Bloc Québécois leads with 45 per cent or more is awarded to that party. Any seat where the Conservatives or Bloc Québécois is in first place but with less than 45 per cent is given to the Liberals, the NDP, or the Greens, depending on which of these parties was in second place.

Though a crude method, past experience with more sophisticated methods have yielded virtually identical results in the current political landscape.

These projections also assumes no change of behaviour by the parties based on the system in place, no change in the behaviour of voters, and no other parties on the ballot. All of these assumptions are likely to be greatly tested in any change to the electoral system.

27 comments:

  1. Here is a prediction: Next month the Liberals will no longer lead the polls out in B.C.

    This is the beginning of the end for Trudeau. Liberal popularity was declining before the cash-for-access scandal and his pipeline decisions now he is a persona non Gratia in B.C. I don't think many Chiefs will be lining up to shake Justin's hand anytime soon. In any case Justin's hands are too busy relieving Chinese billionaires of their cash. The Liberals are turning out to be very amateurish. All the smart Liberals went into business in 2006. The bottom of the barrel was left and so we have the most junior minister trying to negotiate electoral reform, a former cop trying to initiate legalised marijuana and an old white fellow running the Immigration department. It is no wonder nothing can get done-at least in a reasonable amount of time. The buck stops with Trudeau-He has not kept a single election promise and at this rate he will not. His "reform" of the Senate is semantics-it is no reform at all. The Governor General calls people to the Senate on the advice of the PM. The PM's advisors, who formerly gave advice in private, and were unofficial now get paid to offer Justin advice on who should be called to the Upper House. Good Job Justin-no wonder you need all that Chinese money! Resign Justin! You tried and failed and now you and your Government are becoming an embarrassment! Resign!

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    1. LOL!!
      Liberals maintaining near 50% over a year after the election, higher numbers, and for a longer time than any other government in Canadian History, and according to this guy: "This is the beginning of the end for Trudeau." and ... "Resign Justin! You tried and failed and now you and your Government are becoming an embarrassment! Resign!"

      Some people live in an entirely alternate reality...

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    2. Well how correct are you Cappy!!

      Forum poll of Dec 8 has the Liberals and Cons tied in BC!!

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    3. In the Forum Poll of dec 8 6 out of 10 Canadians do not think Trudeau is the best option as PM.

      This is where he is the only person currently running for PM.

      He is losing a 1 horse horse-race.

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    4. Did Harper ever do better than 4 out of 10 Canadians?

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    5. Yep Dan all the time from the death of Layton until Mulcair was elected leader in March 2012 and Rae was holding the Liberal party from folding.

      Harper was at 60% approval with Rae and Turmell as interim leaders.

      Not much to brag about but Harper could win a one horse race as the only entry.



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    6. Dan F,

      Some people like you don't mind Government corruption because in your reality everything is rainbows and Liberal fundraisers with free drinks and food for a $1500 fee, most Canadians can not afford!

      I can only conclude you have very little knowledge of Canadian politics. Chretien had approval ratings above 50% three years into his first term and Harper had 50% approval for two years until 2008! So, Justin's honeymoon is expected. Long honeymoons are in fact the norm!

      Dan F., Why don't you try and defend Justin's actions instead of insulting others? Is it because they are, at this point, indefensible? Liberals aren't special just because they treat Taxpayers' money as their own-they're criminal! Justin Trudeau promised to: "uphold the highest standards of integrity and impartiality both in our public and private affairs". He has broken his own words. He doesn't even trust his own judgement because he doesn't follow it. If the prime minister no longer is able to trust himself surely, Canadians deserve better? We do! He has broken his own ministerial guidelines and he should do the honourable thing and resign pending the outcome of an investigation. It is what he would expect had one of his ministers attended a $1500 fundraiser with Chinese billionaires who wish to open a Chinese bank and care homes in Canada and whose proposals are before the Government! Creating a conflict-of-interest-not the mere perception. Resign! Justin promised open and transparent Government! Resign Justin! He promised a new relationship and respect toward Aboriginal people then, without their consent-imposes a pipeline across their unceeded territory, water and land! Resign!

      He praises a murderer and tyrant in eulogies. Why is the prime minister of Canada friends with a despot? Talk about poor judgement! Justin seems to be copying Kim Jong-Un's bouffaunt hairstyle so maybe he'll strike up a friendship with a new younger dictator now that his old friend the Tyrant of Cuba is dead?

      I get it Dan F., you are unable to defend the actions of Trudeau and his Government so you are left to throw mud. I get it. Trudeau's actions are indefensible-they may be criminal and they are certainly unethical. Justin Trudeau asked the media to hold him to that high standard and his own ministerial guidelines-I am doing so Dan F., you defend a man who by his own words has failed himself. I hope you are proud. Resign Justin! Resign!

      Hey Hey, Ho-Ho!
      Justin Trudeau has got to Go!
      We don't need oil tankers on B.C.'s coast!
      Resign! Resign! Justin Trudeau.

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    7. Dan F.,

      Some people live in an entirely different reality. Latest Forum poll have the Liberals down to 42% and the Tories up to 34%. In Ontario the Grits are down to 41% and the Tories nipping at their heals on 39%. In British Columbia where I live (how about you Dan F.?) the Liberals are below 40% as I predicted on 36% and the Tories up to 35% with the Greens third on 14% and the NDP fourth on 13%!

      BCVoR is right Justin is losing a one horse race-All his wounds are self-inflicted! You Liberals better hope Justin resigns soon otherwise Grits will have a second Kathleen Wynne on their hands!

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    8. Dear Dan F.,

      Ekos' poll for November 2016 also has the Liberals down substantially -5.4% nationally and below 40% in B.C. at 39%. Nationally the Grits only enjoy the support of 41.2% while the Tories have gained vote share and now sit at 32%.

      Dan it is your specific brand of arrogance, rudeness and dirty tricks that caused me to leave the Liberal party. I saw how the Trudeau-Chretien faction purposely tried to discredit first John Turner then Paul Martin, how the Trudeau acolytes were determined to destroy the political life of Paul Martin so that Chretien could win one more election. I saw how the Trudeau-Chretien faction ignored the best interests of the country and focused only on themselves! The arrogance and hypocrisy are the worst traits of the Liberal party.

      Now with two polls showing I am right and you are wrong I expect an apology.

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    9. Dan F.,

      People aren't stupid and they are beginning to see Justin Trudeau is in it for Justin Trudeau.

      If an election were held today a half-competent Conservative leader could win. Justin has not cleared up the cash-for-access scandal with the Chinese bankers and until he does a malodorous waft will follow him.

      His record really isn't that great. The economy is humming along but, the 30 billion dollar deficit now appears to be unneeded or had very little effect, Senate reform was the reform that wasn't, open sourced fighter plane procurement landed us with 18 single sourced CF-18s, He's committed to reduce Canada's Carbon emissions by 30% by 2030 but his only contribution seems to be to fly around the world for multilateral meetings of semi-useless organizations like La Francophonie. They did bring in 36,000 Syrian refugees and then promptly forgot about them. I sure hope they are all multi-millionaires now because their benefits from Justin are about to run out.

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    10. The above poll averages for November show the Libs down a mere tenth of a point, still up an astounding 19 and 33 points on the Cons and NDP.

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    11. Actually, Ken, the Lib government's fundraising methods are by the book, a book they cleaned up. Compared to Harper, Wright, Duffy and their ilk, many, many times more honest, transparent and accountable. And Senate reform is moving along swimmingly. Did you miss that too?

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    12. How exactly is Trudeau "losing" a one-horse race when he's still more than double the popularity of second place "none of these"? Regionally, Trudeau is in a statistical tie with Rona (30% vs 32%) in Alberta.

      If you remove undecided and none of the above from the numbers, Trudeau is leading 54% vs 19% vs 16% vs 8% (LPC, CPC, NDP, Green).

      The Conservatives are in particularly bad shape. Only 16% of those that think she'd be a better PM don't identify as CPC. Not even a majority of CPC supporters think Rona would be the best PM (32% prefer none). If fact, Justin is the only leader to garner a majority of their own party.

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    13. There's a difference between how the book is written and how it is reviewed. The LPC might not be breaking any rules, but they are breaking the confidence of their supporters.

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    14. Actually Dick,

      May I call you Dick? It is uncertain whether they are legal. In the context of a Chinese billionaire wishing to open a bank and care homes in Canada, proposals then before the Government, a one million dollar donation to the Trudeau foundation may be a bribe. It certainly warrants further investigation and closer scrutiny of Liberal fundraising and the Government's relationship with donors and foreign investors. They are certainly not by Justin's book because he forbade himself or his cabinet from becoming involved in even the "appearance" of a conflict-of-interest.

      Don't get me wrong. Harper and the Tories were not saints and they certainly had their share of hypocrisy but, Justin made a promise then furthered it by putting in strict guidelines now, we see it is all just words-that he does not believe himself. So, maybe Trudeau is no worse than Harper but, he's no better either and he promised better. That unfortunately makes Trudeau dishonest.

      As for poll numbers those are last month's polls. The Forum poll only had the Liberals at 42% a mere 8 point lead on the Tories, in Ontario it is closer than that and this cash-for-access scandal isn't going away. The opposition smells something either blood or the waft of corruption or maybe both!

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    15. Mapleson

      You have me confused. By posting at 308 I would expect that you would not be a uninformed voter.

      But then you go on about how Ms. Ambrose has low PM ratings.

      Do you understand that Ms. Ambrose and Mr. Mulcair will not be party leaders in the next election?

      Mr. Trudeau is the only leader that is currently running for PM. We have no idea who will be leading the other parties into the election.

      Immediately after the NDP and CPC find their new leader ... no matter if they turn out to be Dion /Ignatieff/Mulcair weak in the long run, they will see a huge bump in their PM numbers.

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    16. BC Voice,

      You attempted to frame the results of the Forum Research poll as "6 out of 10 Canadians do not think Trudeau is the best option as PM." The question asked was "Regardless of which party you plan to vote for, who do you think would
      make the best Prime Minister?"

      First off, Elizabeth May is still planning to lead the Greens in 2019. Second, Treadeau might be "losing a 1-horse race" if anyone else could pass "none of the above". I expect the CPC, NDP, and possibly the BQ to have honeymoon bumps with their new leaders. Until then don't try to misconstrue a plurality as losing.

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    17. Dick Sharp,

      Trudeau has not executed Senate reform. He is simply using the Royal Prerogative to appoint "independent" senators instead of senators from political parties. He hasn't reformed anything! Justin's Senate reform is all semantics!

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    18. Justin Trudeau should not in fact resign. Just because he has been attending fundraising events that are unethical doesn't mean that he should cease to be the prime minister. Just because he backed off on an election promise doesn't mean he should resign. That is a very immature statement. Now on the other hand I think that there is potential for the PM to fall in the polls of BC. You claim that cash for access is a negative hit to the PM but in BC it really is the PM's pipeline decision. The fact is that the people of BC voted in 2015 overwhelmingly in favor no pipelines. Because of the PM's decision, it could alienate voters in the future. But if every prime minister resigned over broken campaign promises then we would have more prime ministers than it costs dollars to access the Liberals.

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  2. His Pipeline decision will help him in the polls in BC.

    The BC Chiefs have as much popularity and voter persuasiveness as did Black Lives Matters did in the US. The more Trudeau gets attacked by the Chiefs the better he will do with the voters.

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    1. Ipsos poll has BC support at 54% for and 26% against on the kinder morgan pipeline.



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  3. The Cons are done like dinner into the indefinite future even if Trudeau stumbles all the way thru to the next election. Anyone tainted by Harper is finished now and finished in 2019 and anytime in between.

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    1. What nonsense! People said the same about Chretien-He was tainted by the Trudeau years he was "yesterday's man". Then he won three majority governments. Governments defeat themselves, Justin is certainly stumbling toward 2019. Canadians are generous so they may give him a second chance but, his antics are digging himself a into hole. The cash-for-access scandal is not going away anytime soon, electoral reform is imploding all over the press, The CF-18 procurement isn't buying him any friends and his pipeline decisions are making enemies. Liberals lose when the NDP is strong, at the moment everything looks relatively rosy poll wise but, if Justin keeps stumbling along his secure re-election will turn into a dog fight he may not win.

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  4. Capilano,

    I find it interesting that we have not heard possible private concerns that former PM Stephen Harper may have with regard to all of this. To my knowledge, his views have not been expressed by authorized third parties, if indeed he does have major concerns. The only possible hint may be the publicly expressed comments of Ben Harper -- which may or may not be a reflection of Harper's views.

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    1. It is interesting that we have become so accustom to meddling ex-PMs that the actions of a Statesman are questioned.

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    2. Why would Harper comment on Justin's cash-for-access scandal? That would be inappropriate. It's for the RCMP and the Ethics Commissioner to make comments on the legality and ethics of the Liberal approach. Obviously, it doesn't pass the smell test of Canadians but, whether the money was intended as a bribe is the real question? Since by all accounts Liberals invited these Chinese billionaires to their fund-raiser, Trudeau is in waist-deep. The Elder Trudeau did a lot of damage to Canada and the Liberal party by commenting on his successors performances, on Meech and Charlottetown. Trudeau's actions both inside and outside politics nearly destroyed the country-twice! Mr. Harper clearly has more class and less vindictiveness than either the elder or junior Trudeau.

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  5. New Abacus poll shows Trudeau losing ground from their last poll but doing well.

    They asked about the impact of new banknote, Castro comments, pipeline approvals, fundraising, electoral reform.

    They did not ask about deficit spending, carbon tax, fighter jets, and health care which all will have a much larger impact on the next election than banknote and electoral reform and Castro.

    Interesting that so few respondents knew about cash for access and electoral reform.... Really hard to consult with Canadians when they are not interested in the topic.

    What sort of politically unaware people sign up for the 500,000 people that Abacus uses to sample from?

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