Friday, February 10, 2017

Census shows Conservatives still hold sway in Canada's fastest growing regions

With the West leading the country in population growth and Atlantic Canada stagnating, the Conservatives continue to have the most to gain from the demographic trends revealed in the latest census release from Statistics Canada.

And while the numbers are a mixed bag for the governing Liberals, the changing population figures in Canada's 338 ridings point to potential difficulties for the NDP.

The electoral map won't be redrawn until after the next census in 2021, so at least one more election will be decided using the current boundaries. But it's better for a party's future to be on the right side of the demographic trends.

You can read the rest of this article here.


  1. The problem for Conservatives is that they have destroyed themselves with an entire generation of new immigrants. They used to get a large percentage of them, simply because of their tradition values, but Leitch and company have totally destroyed that now. That will negate any demographic shift for a long time.

    And that influence of people moving and question the Conservative Party of Canada's values will actually hurt the party in the long run. Though I love this site, sometimes the mathematical stat process of the practical analysis of what is happening is not fully considered.

    Very much like the analysis on the ranked ballot.

    1. Some truth to what you wright but, voters also have short memories. The Tories may have problems with the "New Canadian vote" in 2019 but, even that is speculative. If demographics favour the Conservatives memories will not be enough to keep them from winning Government.

    2. There are lots of racist immigrants out there that think too many of other immigrants are being let in. Leitch just needs to be a bit more specific in her demonizing, like Trump with Mexicans and Muslims. I'm guessing tolerance of other cultures isn't going to be one of her Canadian Values on the test.

  2. There is no way the Liberals will ever support a fair seat distribution. Liberals continue to form governments because areas of Canada that receive most of the equalization payments also receive more votes per capital than the areas which pay the bills.

  3. Éric,

    I agree with this argument but I would also say that in most of our recent previous elections, Conservatives voted in high percentages while then opposition parties tended to not vote in the same percentages.

    The last election was more about positive change with Justin than a rebuke of Harper's move to the right once he had a majority. Take Justin out of the equation and the CPC might have been able to hang on with another minority.

  4. What disapppints me is that the NDP isn't stronger in the part of the country where it started out: the Prairies. When did the agrarian populist, farmer-friendly CCF, which later allied itself with organized labour and them "working classes", lose its appeal to those two demographics? I think it was when it tried to be the anti-development, anti-employment, better funded version of the Green Party. IMHO the NDP should cede the extremist environmentalist ground to the real Greens, and refocus on helping Canadians get high-quality, full-time long-term jobs.

    Neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives have any idea how to get Canadians back to work in the kind of stable, long-term jobs that offer Canadians financial security and the ability to plan for a future; all they offer is a job market of disposable employees that are just a cost centre for employers instead of an asset to business. There is ample room for an NDP that is interested in helping Canadians improve their lot in life.

    1. The NDP made a conscious decision to become a regular political party around the time Alexa McDonough became leader. McDonough was a seasoned politician having been a member of the Nova Scotia House of Assembly then leader of the NS NDP for the better part of two decades. Svend Robinson's withdrawal from the leadership race was an admission, an acquiescence really, to the direction the Party was heading.

      The next two NDP leaders were from the political elite as well; Jack Layton was the scion of a prominent politically conservative Anglo-Quebec family, while Mulcair is a lawyer and former Quebec Liberal cabinet minister.

      The change itself was the result of the 1993 General Election, their near wipeout therein and the political re-alignment that followed.

      Ceding the environmental ground to the Greens is problematic in my mind. In B.C. that is ten per cent or better of the electorate. For the NDP to achieve government they need that ten per cent because they're not getting the 20% on the opposite end of the spectrum.

      Across Canada The Green vote is closer to five per cent but, once again for the NDP to be successful at least in terms of seats-it is a five per cent they need in order to turn over Tory, or Liberal seats.

      Currently at 16% in the polls I feel the NDP needs to grow its base. Environmental issues are mainstream problems.


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