Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Erin O'Toole winning Conservative caucus as it shuns leadership front-runners Bernier, O'Leary

More than two-thirds of the Conservative caucus has gotten behind one of the 14 candidates for the party's top job. Most are supporting either Erin O'Toole or Andrew Scheer — and O'Toole has now surpassed Scheer as the favourite of Conservatives in the House of Commons, even luring two of Scheer's former backers to his side.

But polls and other metrics suggest Maxime Bernier or Kevin O'Leary are leading the pack. If either of them wins, they could find themselves at the head of a Conservative caucus that overwhelmingly preferred someone else.

You can read the rest of this article here.


  1. So considering the feedback I received I realize my evil plan to stack my ballot for Max won't work, so I might as well go with true order of preference. I'm thinking Max, Leitch, and Scheer are the three I'd be most comfortable winning with. True blue conservatives are my choice these days. I have moved pretty far right on many issues. Social conservatives now bother me less than fake conservatives. Time to re-establish a strong contrasting message in my view. Win or lose, I want a real choice.

    Raitt has the best chance of winning, but she is way to milktoast to resonate with me. Might as well get a Liberal membership if I put her top 5. I think O'leary might sneak in the top 5 though. I could learn to tolerate him if it meant being rid of JT.

  2. I'm hoping for Bernier but would accept O'Toole for sure.

    Never O'Leary !!

  3. Bernier remains my first choice, and now that I live in Victoria my vote has extra weight.

    Chong would be okay. O'Toole and O'Leary don't horrify me.

    The people to avoid are the social conservatives (Trost), the cultural conservatives (Leitch, Alexander), and the non-conservatives (Blaney).

  4. It's very late in the day for a darkhorse to emerge. The new member deadline has already passed, so there is a cap on how much momentum a candidate surging at the last minute can convert into actual votes. Plus, the campaign is so low-key that I wonder what would it would take for voters to pay attention enough to change their minds.

  5. Éric,

    If it happens, Justin will absolutely eat O'Leary's lunch. But perhaps not Kevin's wine.

  6. This is what I mean by a low-key campaign. If this were a real campaign, "Frontrunner Skips Debate for Florida Holiday" would be a big story, and fatal to the candidate's campaign. But it barely rates a mention in the press today. It's hard to imagine a worse candidate, or a more clear indication that he will win anyway.

  7. GI,

    O'Leary has said in the past that his celebrity had caused problems for him at home. With this run, he amplifies that problem 1000%...his ego got the better of him.


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