Showing posts with label Hockey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hockey. Show all posts

Sunday, May 3, 2015

2015 IIHF World Hockey Championship pre-tournament analysis

The 2015 IIHF World Hockey Championship is being held in Prague and Ostrava in the Czech Republic. Happily for Canadian viewers, TSN has seized the opportunity presented by their loss of NHL playoff hockey and are giving the tournament wall-to-wall coverage. I hope this becomes a fixture of TSN's spring hockey coverage in the coming years.

The Russians enter the tournament as the reigning champions, having defeated Finland 5-2 in the gold medal game to take the title. The Swedes won bronze, with the Czech Republic placing fourth. The best goaltender of the tournament was Sergei Bobrovsky of Russia, the best defenceman was Seth Jones of the United States, the best forward was Viktor Tikhonov of Russia, and the MVP was Pekka Rinne of Finland. All are returning in 2015.

What I've done below is rank the teams in terms of their relative quality. This is not meant to be a projection, but rather a comparison of one team to another. On paper, which team should be the strongest? I think this gives a good indication of the relative strengths of each team, and is a good bar with which to measure performance. The system I use is very simple, and was first described here.

In the charts below, I list each player's value, where they played this past season, and how many points they scored (save percentage and games played for goaltenders). I've also included a depth chart, showing potential forward trios and defensive duos (not considering what position each player actually plays at forward).

Canada has dominated in recent Olympic contests, but has struggled at the WHC. Canada hasn't won a medal since 2009, and hasn't won gold since 2007. The best hockey nation in the world, it is often said, could win with a B or a C team. And yet it hasn't. 2015 gives Canada its best chance in years.

One good reason for that is Sidney Crosby, who has opted to come over to the WHC for the first time since 2006. Crosby had an off-year by his standards, scoring 84 points for the Pittsburgh Penguins, but joins an already potent offence. Tyler Seguin, Claude Giroux, Jordan Eberle, Jason Spezza, Matt Duchene, Taylor Hall, Nathan MacKinnon - all of these players would be considered for an Olympic squad, and they give Canada tons of options up front.

The defense is also the best at the tournament, led by Brent Burns, Tyson Barrie, and Calder Trophy candidate Aaron Ekblad. This is a tough group that can also score.

If there is one weakness in the Canadian roster, it is in goal. Mike Smith had a rough year with the Arizona Coyotes, and Martin Jones is a back-up (though a good one) with Los Angeles. Smith will carry the load, and has done well in international tournaments in the past.

Canada always sends the best roster to the WHC, but sometimes it just doesn't click. This time they have everything they need to win a medal.

Canadian connection: Hamhuis (Vancouver), Patrick Wiercioch (Ottawa), Hall and Eberle (Edmonton).

The Russians always come to play at the WHC, and this year is no exception. They have a gold medal to defend, their fourth in the last seven tournaments.

The Russians are particularly strong on offense, with a lot of talent that played on both sides of the Atlantic. The group is led by NHLers Evgeni Malkin and Vladimir Tarasenko. Malkin had 73 points with Pittsburgh this year, while Tarasenko had 73 with St. Louis. Other NHLers include Artem Anisimov and Nikolai Kulemin, while KHL top talent includes Sergei Mozyakin, Danis Zaripv, Yevgeni Dadnov, and Ilya Kovalchuk.

Defense is usually a weakness for the Russians, and this is the case in 2015 as the squad has the sixth-ranked group. Dmitri Kulikov had 22 points for the Florida Panthers this past season, and is the only NHLer among the seven. Anton Belov has experience in the NHL, and Yevgeni Medvedev is a national team veteran.

But if Russia lacks on the back-end, they are the strongest team in nets. Sergei Bobrovsky posted a .918 save percentage this year for the Columbus Blue Jackets, and even that was down from his usual form. Anton Khudobin played 34 games for the Carolina Hurricanes, and Konstantin Barulin had a strong season with Avangard Omsk of the KHL.

The Russians play well on the big ice and should be a favourite to play for a medal in 2015. They just need to get a lot of scoring from Malkin and Tarasenko, as well as from their KHLers.

Canadian connection: Kulemin (former Maple Leaf) and Belov (former Oiler).

Sweden has won a medal at the WHC in five of the last six years, and took gold two years ago. They are always a tough squad to beat, and have sent a good roster to the Czech Republic this year.

Sweden's roster is solid from front to back, and particularly in front. The team will be led by NHLers Filip Forsberg (63 points with Nashville), Loui Eriksson (47 points with Boston), and Elias Lindholm (39 points with Carolina). Other NHL talent includes Joakim Lindstrom, Jacob Josefson, Victor Rask, and Anton Lander. National team veterans like Nicklas Danielsson, Jimmie Ericsson, and Joel Lundqvist add to a well-rounded group.

John Klingberg and Oliver Ekman-Larsson make up one of the most potent defensive duos in the tournament, and give the Swedes a lot of offensive strength on the blue line. The rest of the group is solid.

The Swedes will be counting on goaltending from Jhonas Enroth, who was playing well with Buffalo when he was traded to Dallas. Anders Nilsson, formerly of the New York Islanders, had a good season in the KHL.

Sweden has the potential to be very dangerous offensively. If Enroth can play well, the Swedes are a lock for the medal round.

Canadian connection: Oscar Klefbom, Lander (Edmonton), Lindstrom (Toronto).

The difference between the Olympic and WHC rosters of no country is greater than that of the United States, who year after year fail to send a strong line-up to the yearly tournament. The bronze the USA won in 2013 was the country's first medal at the WHC since 2004.

It is more interesting to go through the list of who isn't in the Czech Republic than who is: Nick Foligno, Joe Pavelski, Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk - all players whose teams did not make the playoffs. And that doesn't even consider the first round exits.

Nevertheless, the Americans have enough talent in the line-up to challenge for a medal. The offence is led by a trio of NHLers: Anders Lee (41 points with the Islanders), Brock Nelson (42 points, also with the Islanders), and Nick Bonino (39 points with Vancouver). KHLers like Steve Moses and Dan Sexton can help with their knowledge of the big ice.

If the offence is weak (ranked eighth), the defence is the second best in the tournament. Justin Faulk had 49 points from the blue line in Caroline, while Torey Krug had 39 for Boston. Seth Jones was named the tournament's best defenceman last year, while Jake Gardiner had 24 points for Toronto. This is a good group, if young.

Connor Hellebuyck had a good year with St. John's of the AHL, while Jack Campbell had a less successful campaign with Texas. But these two can get the job done. But how do they stack up to the Canadian and Russian forwards?

If their goaltending is solid enough, and if the team gets a lot of scoring from the back-end, the Americans could do well at this tournament.

Canadian connection: Gardiner (Toronto), Bonino (Vancouver), Matt Hendricks (Edmonton), Hellebuyck (St. John's/Winnipeg).

There is always a lot of pressure on the hosts. Worse, the Czechs need to make up for two years of medal drought, and their last gold was in 2010. But the Swedish hosts won in 2013, so the Czechs can do it too.

The Czech's have the third-best forward group, led by Jakub Voracek (81 points with Philadelphia), Martin Erat (32 points with Arizona), and the ageless Jaromir Jagr (47 points with Florida). Tomas Hertl is the only other NHLer among the forwards, though Vladimir Sobotka, Roman Cervenka, Jiri Novotny and Jakub Klepis have all had stints in North America.

The defence is not as strong, and has only two NHLers: Jan Hejda and Michal Jordan. National team veterans like Ondrej Nemec, Petr Caslava, and Jakub Nakladal will have to play well.

Despite coming off a very strong season with Winnipeg, Ondrej Pavelec did not start until Alexander Salak was pulled in the second game of the tournament. If the Czechs have any sense, they'll keep Pavelec between the pipes. He backstopped the Jets' playoff run and can win the tournament for the Czechs.

That is if the pressure doesn't get to them. The crowds are thick and noisy, and if the Czechs can feed off of that, and get good performances from their NHLers, they could make a run.

Canadian connection: Pavelec (Winnipeg), Cervenka (former Flame).

The Finns tend to be over-achievers at the WHC, performing well-enough with a roster that should struggle. The team won bronze last year, despite being sixth in my ranking. They could do it again.

Finland's forward group is not particularly strong, led by NHLers Jussi Jokinen (44 points with Florida), Aleksander Barkov (36 points with Florida), and Leo Komarov (26 points with Toronto). But they always get good performances out of their European-based talent, like Janne Pesonen, Jarkko Immonen, Antti Pihlstrom, and Petri Kontiola.

The Finns' defence has only one NHLer (Jyrki Jokipakka of Dallas), but a few with North American experience, including Sami Lepisto and Anssi Salmela. This can be an effective group.

But the teams' chances rest entirely on Pekka Rinner, who had a stellar season with the Nashville Predators. He'll be backed up by Juuse Saros and Atte Engren, but it should be Rinne all the way.

If Rinne plays as good as he did in 2014, the Finns will challenge for a medal. But if he doesn't, the team is not deep enough or potent enough to make up for middling goaltending.

Canadian connection: Komarov (Toronto), Teemu Hartikainen (former Oiler).

The Slovaks are my favourite under-dogs, and they can sometimes pull off an upset. They won gold in 2002, but more recently took silver in 2012.

With a strong forward group, the Slovaks could do some real damage. Tomas Tatar (56 points with Detroit), Marian Gaborik (47 points with Los Angeles), and Marko Dano (21 points with Columbus) make for a dangerous top group, while Tomas Jurco, Richard Panik, and Tomas Kopecky all played in the NHL this year as well.

The defence is a little weaker, with just Andrej Meszaros having played in the NHL this season. But a few others have good European experience, and Milan Jurcina was very recently an NHL regular.

Goaltending is a bit of a concern, as Jaroslav Halak did not make the journey over, and neither did Peter Budaj. But Jan Laco had a good season in the KHL, while Julian Hudacek plays in the tough Swedish league.

Laco and the defensive group just needs to play well enough to let Tatar and Gaborik light it up at the other end. But Slovakia lacks depth, and a deep run in the tournament will be difficult.

Canadian connection: Panik (Toronto), Michal Sersen (former Rempart and Oceanic), Meszaros (former Senator), Juraj Mikus (former Marlie), Mario Bliznak (former Canuck).

Discount or dismiss the Swiss at your own peril, as many teams did in 2013 when the Swiss won a silver medal.

This group might not be as dangerous, though. No current NHLer can be found among the forwards, and the closest is Damien Brunner, who started the season with New Jersey but ended it in Switzerland. National team stalwarts like Andres Ambuhl, Kevin Romy, and Denis Hollenstein can get the job done, but are never very flashy. One player to watch is Kevin Fiala, a Nashvile prospect.

The top Swiss paring on the back-end is very good, though. Roman Josi had 55 points for Nashville this season, while Mark Streit had 52 points. They can do a lot of damage from the blue line. Robin Frossman and Felicien du Bois are veterans.

Reto Berra will have to protect the Swiss net after a decent season as a back-up in Colorado. Leonardo Genoni and Daniel Manzato are capable Swiss leaguers.

The Swiss can outwork opponents, but they might not have enough scoring to win a lot of games.

Canadian connection: Berra (former Flame), Streit (former Canadien).

The Slovenians are my pick for the biggest surprise of 2015, as after being promoted from Division I last year I now have them in ninth. And I think they could even manage it - maybe!

The Slovenes have a few quality pieces. The first is, of course, Anze Kopitar, who had 64 points with Los Angeles this year. Everyone knows about him. But Jan Mursak had 43 points in the KHL, while Rok Ticar had 30 points in the same league. Ziga Jeglic had 23 points in the KHL as well. The quality drops off after these four, but that is more than the Slovenes have been able to say in quite some time.

On the back-end, Mitja Robar and Blaz Gregorc played in the decent Czech league, while Ziga Pavlin and Ales Kranjc suited up in the Swedish second tier league, which is better than most in Europe.

The team has some goaltending options: youngster Luka Gracnar, who had played very well at the international level, and veteran Robert Kristan, who played in the Czech league this year.

If the Slovenes can win their games against other minnows, and they can, they could avoid relegation. Having Kopitar is half the battle.

Canadian connection: Marcel Rodman (former Peterborough Pete).

The Germans are usually a bubble team, but they may be able to avoid that this year.

All but two members of the German squad played outside of Germany this year, and one of them was Tobias Rieder. He had 21 points with Arizona this year, and will lead the team's offence. Patrick Reimer, Daniel Pietta, Yasin Ehliz, and Patrick Hager had good seasons in the DEL this year.

The other non-DEL player was Justin Krueger, who had 17 points for SC Bern in the elite Swiss league. The rest of the German group is relatively low profile, as a lot of the veterans appear to have been passed over or declined to participate. Moritz Muller, Nikolai Goc, and Benedikt Kohl have experience.

The Germans produce decent goaltenders, and Dennis Endras is the favourite starter. But Timo Pielmeier and Danny Aus den Birken also had good DEL seasons.

The Germans will be playing to avoid relegation, and maybe they can manage it this year. But they will not be a flashy group.

Canadian connection: Rieder (former Kitchener Ranger).

The French are an up and coming hockey nation, avoiding relegation every year since 2008 and finishing eighth last year. Top 10 finishes will occur more often in the future, I believe.

The French offence will be led by two players with NHL experience: Stephane da Costa, formerly of the Ottawa Senators and a top-scorer in the KHL this year, and Antoine Roussel, who had 25 points for the Dallas Stars. Charles Bertrand, who had 47 points in the decent Finnish league, also adds to the group. Laurent Meunier, Damien Fleury, and Sacha Treille ply their trades outside of France,

Defence is the weakness of the French, with only Yohann Auvitu and Kevin Hecquefeuille playing in half-decent leagues. They will have to lead the group. Watch Benjamin Dieude Fauvel, who played a little in the AHL this past year.

Cristobal Huet continues to backstop the French. He had a good year with Lausanne in Switzerland. Florian Hardy, who played well last year, can back him up ably.

The French should be able to avoid relegation with this line-up, but may struggle to get into the playoffs this year.

Canadian connection: Huet (former Canadian), da Costa (former Senator), Roussel (former Sagueneen).

The Latvians are always fun to watch (they have the best fans) but should not pose too much of a challenge this year.

Kaspars Daugavins leads the offense, after scoring 37 points for Dynamo Moscow of the KHL. Mikelis Redlihs and Miks Indrasis are important parts of Riga's KHL team, and will have to back him up. After these three, though, the quality drops off tremendously.

The defence is not bad, though, led by Lauris Darzins (32 points with Riga) and Krisjanis Redlihs. National team veterans Kristaps Sotnieks, Guntis Galvins, and Maksims Sirokovs will need to play hard to keep Latvia out of relegation.

Edgars Masalskis is always reliable, though he played a shortened season in Switzerland this year. Ervins Mustukovs, of the Danish league, may be out of his depth.

One advantage Latvia has is that so many of its players play together with Dinamo Riga. That team chemistry can mean a lot.

Canadian connection: Daugavins (former Senator).

The Norwegians, rarely an easy out at the WHC, should again find themselves outside of relegation, but also outside of the top 10.

The offence is led, as usual, by Patrick Thoresen, who had 27 points in the KHL this season. Mathis Olimb, Mats Rosseli Olsen, and Martin Roymark of the Swedish league will need to carry their weight without the likes of Per-Age Skroder or Mats Zuccarello.

Jonas Holos and Ole-Kristian Tollefsen, two players with NHL experience, remain the most important players on the Norwegian squad. They'll need a lot of help from the likes of Alexander Bonsaksen and Mattias Norstebo.

Lars Haugen, a good goaltender in the KHL, gives them a quality stopper in nets. Lars Volden, who plays in the second-tier Swedish league, is also good.

The team lacks depth, however, and will find it hard to play with the big boys. They need to win their points against the other minnows.

Canadian connection: Thoresen (former Oiler).

The seventh-place showing for host Belarus last year would have surpassed the most reasonable expectations, but the Belarussians could be let down this year.

Belarus can count on one good line, as usual. The Kostitsyn brothers had decent years in the KHL this past season, while Alexei Kalyuzhny remains their most reliable KHL talent. But after these three, the team will struggle to score. Alexander Kulakov may be the best of the rest.

Dmitri Korobov is a good defenceman, playing with Atlant Mytishi this year. Nikolai Stasenko, Ilya Shinkevich, and Yevgeni Lisovets all played in the KHL as well.

Canadian ex-pat Kevin Lalande had good year with CSKA Moscow, and will likely lead the team in this tournament. Veteran Vitali Koval is effective when called upon.

The Belarussians can play with a lot of energy, but if the Kostitsyn brothers do not carry the team, Belarus could face relegation.

Canadian connection: The Kostitsyns (former Canadiens).

The Austrians were promoted to the WHC this year, and are a prime candidate to be sent back this year.

The one bright light on this team is Michael Raffl, who had 28 points with the Philadelphia Flyers this year. But virtually the entire rest of the team plays in the weak Austrian league, and he will have trouble getting support. Raphael Herburger, Thomas Raffl, and Brian Lebler are his best hopes.

Florian Iberer and Dominique Heinrich had successful offensive seasons in the Austrian league from the blue line this year, but this group lacks a lot of experience at this level.

Bernhard Starkbaum, who had a good season with Brynas Gavle of the Swedish league, gives the Austrians a fighting chance.

Canadian connection: Brian Lebler is from British Columbia.

The weakest roster in the tournament is, surprisingly, Denmark, another up and coming hockey nation. The reason is simple: no Philip Larsen, Mikkel Bodker, Jannik Hansen, Nicklas Jensen, Frans Nielsen, Peter Regin, or Frederik Andersen.

Not a single NHLer is on the team, and not even a former NHLer. No other country can say that in Prague and Ostrava.

Nichlas Hardt and Patrick Bjorkstrand are the only forwards playing in a top European league, while Morten Green, Morten Madsen, and Julian Jakobsen play in Germany. Morten Poulsen, Jesper Jensen, and Anders Poulson play in the second tier Swedish league.

The defense is better, with Markus and Oliver Lauridsen having played the past season in the AHL. Jesper Jensen plays in the Swedish league. These three will need to be good.

Patrick Galbraith plays in the second-tier Swedish league, and will also need to be very good.

But altogether, the Danes are lacking in talent and experience at a high level of play. They will be lucky to avoid relegation.

Sunday, May 25, 2014

2014 World Hockey Championship post-mortem

The 2014 World Hockey Championship in Minsk, Belarus was a great tournament held in front of large, noisy crowds. There were more than a few upsets, a lot of close games, and every team - from 16th to 1st - was competitive. Unfortunately for Canada, though, the tournament was far from a success as Canada's medal drought continues.

Below you'll find my post-tournament analysis. A few notes on the format. The record for each nation refers to regulation wins, overtime wins, overtime losses, and regulation losses. I've included a list of the most-used forwards, defensemen, and goaltenders, based on average ice-time. I've also included a list of the top scorers (in brackets, it is: GP-G-A-PTS) and goaltenders (W-L, GAA, SPCT). At the bottom I've included what my ranking system suggested were the most valuable players, to compare to the list of players that were most used and who scored the most. And for the entire analysis, when referring to how a team was ranked I am referring to my own rankings (which you can find here).


The team that out-performed expectations the most was France, finishing six spots ahead of where they were ranked. Finland was also an over-achiever, moving from sixth to second and winning a silver medal in the process. The biggest under-achievers were Canada, the United States, and Kazakhstan. But the Big Six hockey nations held the top six spots, as usual.


The best team in Minsk won the gold medal, as it should be. The Russians were absolutely dominant, winning all 10 games they played in regulation, allowing only 10 goals in the process and scoring 42. They led the tournament in almost every category, and trailed for only 2% of the entire tournament (according to Rod Black on TSN). It was an outstanding performance, making up somewhat for the team's dismal showing in Sochi.

The Russians were strong everywhere, but particularly in net. Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky was excellent, posting a .950 save percentage and 1.13 goals against average, along with two shutouts. The Russians barely needed him to be so good - they won their games by an average of three goals - but he was there when they needed him. Andrei Vasilevski, a young Russian prospect, came in for two games and was just as solid.

After the injury to Dmitri Orlov in the third game of the tournament, Anton Belov of the Edmonton Oilers was the only remaining NHLer on the blueline. He was their best, with five points and a +10 rating, but he got tremendous support from Yevgeni Medvedev, Yegor Yakovlev, and Alexander Kutuzov. The Russians adopted a strict defensive system under new head coach Oleg Znarok, and it worked very well.

But as I said, they didn't need the defense because their offense was lights out. Four players averaged more than a point-per-game: former Phoenix Coyotes forward Viktor Tikhonov, who led the tournament with 16 points in 10 games, KHL top scorer Danis Zaripov (13 points), Sergei Plotnikov, and team captain Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals, who had four goals and seven assists in nine games. Nikolai Kulemin, Sergei Shirokov, and Vadim Shipachyov also contributed.

It was a textbook performance by the Russians, who were by far the strongest team in Minsk in front of a very friendly (almost) local crowd. It doesn't make up entirely for failing to medal in Sochi, but it is not a bad consolation prize.


A silver medal with a line-up containing only three NHLers, one of them a rookie, is a huge achievement for the Finns, who were ranked only sixth going in to the tournament. The Finns got stellar goaltending from Pekka Rinne when they needed it, and scoring from their European league players, and forged their way to the gold medal game, falling short 5-2 against the dominant Russians.

After losing to Latvia in their opener, an upset in and of itself, and then to Russia, it looked like the Finns had made a mistake in sending such a young and inexperienced line-up to Minsk. But then they beat Germany, Belarus, and Switzerland, and were back in the tournament. A loss to the United States almost knocked them out of the playoffs, but they beat Kazakhstan to give just enough points to edge out Switzerland for the fourth spot in the group. Then the Finns downed Canada and the Czechs in two tough elimination games.

Rinne was the star for the Finns, and was accordingly named the tournament MVP. He had a 1.88 goals against average and .928 save percentage, but was overpowered by the Russian powerplay in the gold medal game. The defense was not flashy but it was good, led by Juuso Hietanen and Atte Ohtamaa, along with Jere Karalahti and Tuukka Mantyla.

Jori Lehtera led the way up front with three goals and 12 points, while Petri Kontiola contributed three goals and six assists. Olli Palola led the team in goals with four, while national team veterans like Jarkko Immonen and Olli Jokinen contributed as well. It was a team effort, and all credit goes to the Finns for their silver medal.

The Russians proved to be too much for the Finns, as they did for everyone else in Minsk, but beating Canada and the Czech Republic to earn their silver medal is no small thing.


It is never a surprise when Sweden wins a medal at the World Hockey Championship, and the Swedes did so in Minsk with a 3-0 victory over the Czech Republic in the bronze medal game. But, on paper, the Swedes hadn't sent a stellar line-up to Belarus, with only a few NHLers and none of them the game-breaker type. But nevertheless, the Swedes only lost two games during the entire tournament.

One was against Canada in the preliminary round, while the other was against Russia in the semi-finals. Otherwise, the Swedes won seven games in regulation and one in overtime in a strong performance.

Much of that was due to the performance of Anders Nilsson, a young goaltender who played part of the year with the New York Islanders. He was terrific, with a .938 save percentage and 1.54 goals against average, providing the Swedes with security that was used to good advantage.

The defense was also strong, led by Mattias Ekholm (seven points in 10 games) and Magnus Nygren, who had five points. Johan Fransson, Tim Erixon, and Erik Gustafsson were also effective.

Scoring came primarily from three players: Joakim Lindstrom (five goals, six assists), Oscar Moller (three goals, six assists), and Mikael Backlund (five goals, three assists), but Ekholm, Linus Klasen, Jimmie Ericsson, and Nicklas Danielsson each had two goals. It gave the Swedes a balanced line-up that was difficult to handle.

A loss against Russia in this tournament is not much of a mark against the Swedes, as the Russians were dominant from top to bottom. Had they managed to squeeze in against the Russians, they would have been the favourite for the gold. A strong performance from a hockey nation with a lot of domestic depth: 15 players on the roster played part or all of last season in the Swedish league.


Each of the Big Six nations have an expectation of a medal when they go to the World Hockey Championship, and the Czech Republic is no different. Their line-up was good enough to play for a medal - and they did - but they didn't have what it takes to get into the top three. And this was because they did not score a goal in the last two games of the tournament.

Though the Czechs did well enough to make it into the playoffs and defeat the United States in the quarter-final, the team did not have an easy go of it. With the exception of the Czechs' 2-0 win over the Italians, every game was decided by a single goal in the preliminary round, including a loss to Denmark and two wins over normally weaker teams like France and Norway. It wasn't a line-up that was dominating.

The back end performed well enough, with Ondrej Nemec managing seven points in 10 games. Alexander Salak played the bulk of the games for the Czechs, and boasted a low goals against average of 2.29, but an unimpressive save percentage of .897.

The Czechs' offense was quite good going into the semi-finals, led by the ageless Jaromir Jagr's four goals and four assists. Tomas Hertl and Vladimir Sobotka contributed six points apiece, while Roman Cervenka put up five. But in the games against Finland in the semi-finals and Sweden for the bronze medal, the Czech forwards were completely shutout. And that is why the Czechs finished fourth.

Overall, though, it was a decent tournament for the Czechs considering that they did not have many NHLers in the line-up and one of them, Roman Polak, was injured after only one game. They needed more from players like Jan Kovar, who had 68 points in the KHL this year but just one assist in the tournament, but both Pekka Rinne and Anders Nilsson got the better of the Czechs in their last two games of the tournament.


Canada cannot catch a break in this tournament. Despite fielding a decent line-up every year - the only country to send a full squad of NHLers - the Canadians can't seem to get past the quarter-finals. Canada performs well in the round-robin every year, but always falls short when the field is reduced to eight. Canada has not gotten past the quarter-final round in five years.

The team sent to Minsk was particularly young, but it nevertheless performed well. After the shocking loss to France in a shoot-out to open the tournament, Canada ran the table, beating Slovakia, the Czechs, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, and Norway. But then Canada fell 3-2 to Finland in the quarter-finals - tournament over.

In the end, the Canadians could not get past Pekka Rinne in the Finnish net. Canadian goaltenders played well, with James Reimer putting up a .911 save percentage and Ben Scrivens managing a 1.74 goals against average and .938 save percentage. But he did not play as well as he could have against Finland, and Canada lost.

Scoring was mostly by committee, with only Joel Ward (six goals, three assists) and Cody Hodgson (six goals, two assists) putting up point-per-game performances. Kyle Turris played a lot, and had six points, while Matt Read and Jonathan Huberdeau each had five points. The young rookie Nathan MacKinnon had four points, but Nazem Kadri has just three assists in eight games.

The defense was solid, with every member of the squad except Braydon Coburn earning a point. Ryan Ellis led the group with five points and a +9 rating.

But Canada needs to find a way to get into the semi-finals. It is easy to send a squad that can dominate the lesser teams and compete with the traditional powers, but the quality of European league players should not be under-estimated. If Canada sends a line-up of second and third liners, the Swedes, Russians, Czechs, and Finns will be able to beat them. Their line-ups might be dominated by European league players, but these players are generally good enough to play on the third or fourth line of NHL teams. They don't because of many reasons, above all the ease of incorporating North American players rather than trying to get Europeans to cross the pond and adapt.

Canada needs to have at least some of their top-flight players at the Worlds in order to compete for a medal. Turris, MacKinnon, Kadri, Garrison, Ellis, and Scrivens are great players. But they are not Jagr, Ovechkin, Malkin, Rinne, or Bobrovsky, who all answered the call for their countries.


The United States never sends a high-quality line-up to the World Hockey Championship, and that has often cost them. Only a few years ago, when the format was different, the USA had to win the mini-tournament to avoid relegation. But lately the US program has been able to send a team that, while not having any big names, can win. In Minsk, the Americans did quite well, though fell short of being able to play for a medal.

The biggest problem for the Americans was goaltending. Tim Thomas played virtually every minute of the tournament for the Americans, and he did not give them a strong performance. He had a .869 save percentage and 3.49 goals-against average, numbers that are quite low even for a short tournament.

Luckily, the Americans were able to put the puck in the opposite net. Only Russia and Canada scored more goals in the round-robin. The team was led in scoring by Seth Jones, who had an amazing tournament with two goals and nine assists in 11 games. A big surprise was the performance of Johnny Gaudreau, a Calgary Flames prospect, who had 10 points in eight games. As expected, Tyler Johnson of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Craig Smith of the Nashville Predators delivered, with six goals for Johnson and eight points for Smith in eight games. Brock Nelson, who had five goals, was also highly productive. The performance of Tommy Wingels was disappointing, however. He had 38 points for San Jose this year, but none for Team USA.

But the Americans' record does not reflect the sort of tournament they had. Aside from the blow-out win over Belarus, the Americans only narrowly squeaked by their other opponents, even lesser lights like Kazakhstan and Germany. The Americans got the goals, but they also did not keep the puck out of their own net. In the playoffs, the US fell short 4-3 to the Czechs. There were a number of good goaltenders who could have been available and who did not also play in the Olympics (Craig Anderson, Cory Schneider, Al Montoya, Alex Stalock). The US program needs to do a better job recruiting for the Worlds.


By any measure, it was an outstanding tournament for the Belarusians. Hosting the tournament for the first time, in Minsk, the Belarusians set a new attendance record and their team gave them something to cheer about - four wins and a seventh place finish, their best performance since they finished sixth in 2006. It was also a marked improvement over three straight 14th place finishes.

The tournament did not start off well with a 6-1 loss to the United States, but the Belarusians got back on their feet with wins over Kazakhstan and Switzerland. They also defeated Germany and Latvia, and kept the games close against Russia and Finland. They came up short in the playoffs against Sweden, but kept it very competitive with a 3-2 scoreline. Plenty for the locals to cheer about for a team that has struggled in the last few years.

Most of their top players stepped up, with Mikhail Grabovski leading the team with four goals and four assists in six games. Former NHLer Sergei Kostitsyn also had four goals and four assists, but in eight games. National team veteran Alexei Kalyuzhny had one goal and six assists in seven games, while ex-pat Canadian Geoff Platt had five points. Former NHLer Andrei Kostitsyn was a disappointment, held pointless in seven games despite getting his fair share of ice time.

The Belarusians did not get a lot of offense from the blueline, but Vladimir Denisov, Roman Graborenko, and Dmitri Korobov (who played a few games in the NHL this year) all had very good plus/minus ratings. Ex-pat Canadian Kevin Lalande, who plays with Dynamo Minsk in the KHL, was lights out with a .938 save percentage and sparkling 1.25 goals-against average. Vitali Koval was also effective when he got the call.

So good for the Belarusians to go beyond expectations in front of a home crowd. They had the most pressure in this tournament, and they delivered.


The French were the over-achievers of the tournament. Ranked 14th going in and on the bubble to avoid relegation, France finished eighth overall and made it into the playoffs after pulling off a few upsets.

The most shocking upset was the 3-2 victory over Canada to open the tournament, but the French were also able to pull off wins against Slovakia, Norway, and Denmark, as well as pushing the Czechs to overtime. It was an incredible performance.

The French were led by one terrific line of Antoine Roussel (29 points with Dallas this year), Stephane da Costa (four points with the Ottawa Senators, 58 with Binghamton of the AHL), and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (35 points in the good Swedish league). Roussel lit up the tournament with six goals and five assists in eight games, while da Costa had six goals and three assists. Bellemare, who scored the shoot-out winner against Canada, had three goals and five assists.

The problem for the French was that there was not much else after these three (except for Julien Desrosiers, who had six points), and their higher-skilled opponents could focus their defensive efforts on the Roussel-da Costa-Bellemare line. Cristobal Huet was there when he needed to be, though his stats (.902 save percentage, 2.60 goals against average) were less than shining. National team veteran Baptiste Amar was good, but the French were lacking a top flight defenseman.

Nevertheless, this was a terrific performance for the French, who will not be taken so lightly in future years. If they can get their top players to the tournament, France has the ability to pull off upsets.


The Slovaks are always aiming to be in the final eight, as the nation used to have a lock on the 'seventh' spot among the big countries in international hockey. As we get further away from the breakup of Czechoslovakia, the Slovaks have been struggling. But they finished ninth, about as good as they were expected to finish. It could have been a better tournament, though.

The Slovaks mostly won the games they should have (against Italy, Denmark, and Norway) and lost the ones they were expected to (against the Czechs, Canadians, and Swedes). But the 5-3 loss to France doomed the Slovaks to finishing outside of the playoffs.

The Slovaks went with Jan Laco throughout the tournament, and he did moderately well. But the Slovaks probably needed a better than .890 save percentage from Laco. They also needed a much better performance from Tampa Bay's Richard Panik. He had 13 points with the Lightning this year, but had zero for Slovakia - despite getting decent ice time. Marek Hrivik, who had 27 points in the AHL, was also held pointless in Minsk.

The offense was instead led by Michel Miklik, who had a stellar tournament with four goals and seven assists in seven games. Tomas Tatar and Ladislav Nagy both had four goals, while former NHLer Miroslav Satan led the team in ice time with over 20 minutes per game.

The Slovaks had a mixed line-up, and were always going to struggle against the bigger countries. They performed well against most of the weaker teams, but the loss to France was the story of the tournament for Slovakia.


The Swiss should have been able to make it to the playoffs, but instead they finished 10th after winning a silver medal last year. The Swiss started the tournament with three straight losses, against Russia, the United States, and Belarus, which put them off on the wrong foot. They were able to defeat the Kazakhs, Latvians, and the Germans, but their losses to Finland and Belarus kept them out of the playoffs.

The Swiss usually have a strong back end, and this was again the case in Minsk. Roman Josi led the team in scoring with seven points in seven games, while Yannick Weber had three goals and one assist. Reto Berra was not stellar, with a .902 save percentage, but the Swiss lost a lot of close games. The offense was just not potent enough - a perennial problem for the Swiss.

Damien Brunner, the only full-time NHL forward in the Swiss line-up, led the way with three goals and three assists. But the injury to Sven Bartschi in the first game of the tournament hamstrung the Swiss. Denis Hollenstein, Andres Ambuhl, and Simon Moser contributed, but the Swiss needed a better performance from Benjamin Pluss, who had 38 points in the Swiss league this year but none in the tournament.

With one-goal losses against the Belarussians, the Latvians, the Finns, and the Americans, the tournament could have easily been a very different one for the Swiss. They needed clutch scoring or stronger goaltending. Without either, the Swiss end up in the middle of the pack.


It was a great tournament for the Latvians, coming off a surprise performance in the Sochi Winter Olympics. The Latvians defeated the United States and Finland in two upsets, in addition to their win against the Kazakhs. They also suffered close one-goal losses to the Germans and the Swiss. If they would have won either of those games, Latvia would have made it into the playoffs.

The Latvians performed well because their best players did their jobs. Mikelis Redlihs led the team in scoring with six points, while Kaspars Daugavins had five points. Miks Indrasis put up four points, while Zemgus Girgensons of the Buffalo Sabres had two goals. A better showing from him could have gone a long way.

At the back, Arturs Kulda (formerly of the Atlanta Thrashers) led the team with four goals from the blueline, while also leading the team in minutes per game. Kristers Gudlevskis, who made a name for himself against Canada in Sochi and earned himself a call-up from Syracuse of the AHL to the Tampa Bay Lightning, had a .891 save percentage and played in the big games. Edgars Masalskis had two of the wins and a lower goals-against average.

An 11th place finish is respectable for the Latvians, and their victories against the Finns and Americans were milestones. A few more lucky bounces and it could have been an exceptional tournament for Latvia.


Norway out-performed expectations because they kept the puck out of the net, won the games they were supposed to, and kept it close in others. Wins against Italy and Denmark to start the tournament ensured they'd avoid relegation, while pushing the French to a shoot-out kept them out of the bottom four, where they were expected to finish.

The Norwegians had a good defense, with fewer goals allowed in the round-robin than all but six teams. Both Lars Haugen and Steffen Soberg played well when called upon, Haugen getting the Norwegians their two wins and Soberg keeping games close, with a stellar .948 save percentage. Jonas Holos, formerly of the Colorado Avalanche, was a horse, playing an average of 32 minutes per game.

The offensive talents up front largely delivered, with Mathis Olimb leading the team with eight points and Morten Ask scoring three goals and two assists. Ken Andre Olimb and Per-Age Skroder were also important contributors, while Anders Bastiansen got a lot of ice time for his two goals.

The Norwegians can usually be counted upon to finish around 12th, and this particular line-up appeared weaker than in recent years. But the Norwegians acquitted themselves well.


It was a topsy-turvy tournament for the Danes, who were defeated by the Norwegians and French, two teams they should have been able to topple. On the other hand, they won against the Czechs, a team that finished fourth. Consistency against the lower-ranked teams was lacking for the Danes, and so they finished only 13th.

Goaltending was the big problem for the Danes. Only Kazakhstan allowed more goals in the round-robin. This is where the timing of the tournament hurt Denmark, as Fredrik Andersen was busy playing with the Anaheim Ducks. Simon Nielsen, who played the bulk of the time for the Danes, struggled with just a .856 save percentage. Patrick Galbraith, with a .888 save percentage, was better - but his goals against average was an entire goal-per-game worse.

That is unfortunate, since the Danes did have some scorers in the line-up. Kim Staal and Jesper Jensen, two European leaguers, led the way with five points for Staal and three goals for Jensen. NHLers Mikkel Boedker and Jannik Hansen also contributed, with four points apiece. Nicklas Jensen of the Vancouver Canucks also had two points. But from the blueline, Philip Larsen of the Edmonton Oilers, who played 25 minutes per game, was limited to just one assist.

If the Danes had gotten the saves they needed, they could have performed very well. Victories against Slovakia and Norway, games lost by just a goal, would have give the Danes a chance to compete for a playoff spot.


It is hard to say the Germans under-performed. They won the games they should have against Latvia and Kazakhstan, and were competitive in most of the games they lost to the more high-powered teams, like Finland, Russia, and the United States. They needed victories against Belarus and Switzerland to have hopes of making it to the playoffs, but came up short.

Inexplicably in my view, however, it was Rob Zepp who got the call in nets for Germany in those games, rather than Philipp Grubauer. Grubauer had a good season with the Washington Capitals, posting a .925 save percentage in 17 games. He was also good in this tournament, with a .922 save percentage. But he only played two games, with Zepp instead getting the bulk of the time in goal but managing a woeful save percentage of .856. Grubauer had a goals-against average of just over two goals. If he had been the goalie throughout the tournament, that might have been enough to win the Germans a few other games.

But the Germans were not scoring very much. Thomas Oppenheimer and Kai Hospelt led the team with six and five points, respectively, while prospect Leon Draisaitl had four points. But after these three, no German player had more than two points. Felix Schutz, who had 38 points in the KHL this year, was limited to just one assist. Thomas Rieder, who had 48 points with the Portland Pirates of the AHL this year, scored just one goal in seven games. Had the Germans' best scorers played up to their capabilities, and if Grubauer had been given the starts, the Germans might have had a much better tournament.


Italy was relegated, as expected. But they managed to finish 15th rather than last, an achievement in itself for this line-up. And their victory - their only victory - against France, a team that over-achieved on almost every night, was a highlight.

But the Italians couldn't buy a goal, scoring only six in seven games. Their top scorer, defenseman Giulio Scandella, had just one goal and three points, while no one other than Markus Gander scored more than a goal. There were high hopes for Brian Ihnacak, who had 81 points in the Italian league this last season, but he did not manage a single point. Diego Kostner, who had a decent season in the much more competitive Swiss league, had just one goal.

Goaltending wasn't a problem, though the defense was over-powered by the Swedes and Canadians. But otherwise, Daniel Bellissimo kept the Italians in some games, and he put up a .903 save percentage. If the Italians had been able to score, against the Norwegians and Danes, for example, they might have avoided relegation. But they'll be back in Division I next year.


That Kazakhstan was relegated is not much of a shock, the team is usually on the bubble. They were also in the more difficult group, being ranked only more highly than Latvia. They kept the games against the lower ranked teams close, but the 5-4 loss against Latvia - the team they should have been able to beat - sealed their fate.

The Kazakhs weren't hamstrung on offense, scoring more goals than Italy and Germany, and as many as Norway. But they were the worst defensive team in the tournament, allowing 32 goals in seven games, for an average of 4.6 per game. No team will be able to win with such a porous defense.

Goaltending was the problem, as neither Vitali Yeremeyev nor Alexei Ivanov were able to get the job done. Both had mediocre seasons in the KHL, but Yeremeyev is a national team veteran and was once highly rated enough to play a few games with the New York Rangers some years ago. Ivanov played more of the minutes, and put up just a .875 save percentage and 5.07 goals-against average, compared to Yeremeyev's .890 save percentage and 3.65 goals-against average. Perhaps had Yeremeyev played a little more, the Kazakhs could have put up a better result.

They could have gotten better performances from Roman Starchenko (two goals) and Talgat Zhailauov (one goal, one assist), but Kevin Dallman and Nikolai Antropov stepped up in their place. Nevertheless, a last place finish has to be disappointing for a team that could have done better.

Replacing Kazakhstan and Italy in 2015 will be Austria and Slovenia, who earned promotion earlier this year. These are two good replacement nations who have the potential to stick for more than one year, considering the surprising performance of the Slovenes in Sochi and the number of NHLers available to Austria. Next year's World Hockey Championship will be held in Prague and Ostrava in the Czech Republic.

Saturday, May 10, 2014

2014 World Hockey Championship

The first World Hockey Championship after the Winter Olympics is always a different beast. The best players in the world who made it to the Olympic Games often don't return for the World Hockey Championship, in order to avoid prolonging an already long season. But every nation is in the same boat in this regard, and these World Hockey Championship taking place in Minsk, Belarus will be a bit of a showcase of the world's up-and-coming talent.

The tournament is being broadcast in Canada on TSN. The full broadcast schedule can be seen here. TSN will be broadcasting every Canadian and American game, as well as every game in the playoffs. As Canada is in one group and the United States is in the other, this means that every team will be featured in at least one game.

What I've done below is rank the teams in terms of their relative quality. This is not meant to be a projection, but rather a comparison of one team to another. On paper, which team should be the strongest? I think this gives a good indication of the relative strengths of each team, and is a good bar with which to measure performance. The system I use is very simple, and was first described here.

Using that system gives us an indication of how well each of the teams did in Sochi. Canada, which was ranked first, did end up winning the gold while Sweden, ranked third, managed to take the silver. The United States, ranked second, played themselves out of a medal while the Finns, ranked sixth, over-achieved to win their bronze.

Other over-achievers included the Slovenians, ranked 11th, and the Latvians, ranked 12th. The Slovenians played amazingly well considering their limited resources, finishing seventh overall. The Latvians, too, performed above expectations with an eighth-place finish. The under-achievers were the Slovaks. They were ranked seventh but ended up in 11th spot.

So how is the tournament shaping up in Minsk? Here are my rankings of the 16 teams.


With a full roster of NHLers, the Canadians should be the strongest team at the tournament. But that is always the case, and yet Canada hasn't won a medal since 2009, when they took silver. The 3-2 shoot-out upset loss to France on the opening day of the tournament illustrated how getting a group of players to become a team can be difficult.

But Canada has few excuses. Their goaltending is young, but Ben Scrivens has had an incredible year with the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings, finishing with a .922 save percentage. James Reimer did less well with the Toronto Maple Leafs (and worse against France), but can also get the job done. Justin Peters of the Carolina Hurricanes is capable if either Scrivens or Reimer falters.

The defense is a mix of youth and experience, led by Jason Garrison of the Vancouver Canucks, Ryan Ellis of the Nashville Predators, and Morgan Rielly of the Maple Leafs. But Kevin Bieksa of the Canucks will provide the leadership in the dressing room, and was accordingly named captain. Tyler Myers of the Philadelphia Flyers and Erik Gudbranson of the Florida Panthers complete the youth movement on the blueline.

Canada's 2018 or 2022 Olympic team is on display among the forwards, however. Nathan MacKinnon of the Colorado Avalanche, likely Calder winner, is the leading scorer on the team, having put up 63 points this season. Kyle Turris of the Ottawa Senators (58 points) and Nazem Kadri of the Maple Leafs (50 points) can also put the puck in the net. Other young players who will bring energy to the squad include Cody Hodgson of the Buffalo Sabres, Brayden Schenn of the Flyers, Mark Scheifele of the Winnipeg Jets, Sean Monahan of the Calgary Flames, and Jonathan Huberdeau of the Panthers. Veterans like Joel Ward and Jason Chimera of the Washington Capitals, as well as Alexandre Burrows of the Canucks, will need to provide some leadership to help the team gel in such a short time.

And that is the challenge for Canada. There is no reason that the team shouldn't be able to win a medal, as every contender's line-up is missing some of their greats. The forward group is the most potent in the tournament. If they can score, and Scrivens or Reimer can keep it out of the net, Canada should be able to win a medal.


If Canada sometimes has trouble getting its best available players to suit-up for the WHC, the Americans have even more. Their squad is usually a mix of third and fourth line NHLers, with barely a household name among them. Nevertheless, the USA won a bronze last year and should be able to medal again in Minsk.

Their goaltending group is their Achilles' heal, led by 40-year-old Tim Thomas of the Dallas Stars. He had an okay-year, but is the only bonafide NHLer among the trio. David Leggio of the AHL's Hershey Bears had a decent season in that league, while Connor Hellebuyck was lights out this year - but with the University of Lowell. Thomas will probably have to carry the load in Minsk.

The defense, however, is the tournament's best - or at least the most likely to score a goal. The blueline corps is very young, led by Jake Gardiner of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Jacob Trouba of the Winnipeg Jets, Seth Jones of the Nashville Predators, and Dan DeKeyser of the Detroit Red Wings. All four of these players had 23 points or more in the NHL. Jeff Petry of the Edmonton Oilers is also in the line-up. This group is quick and big and skilled, but may be inexperienced.

Update (18/05/14): Jacob Trouba has been sent home with an injury, and this blows a big hole in the US defense. He was, along with Seth Jones, the most-used defenseman on the team, with three points in four games. As the United States is fighting for a spot in the elimination round, his loss will hurt.

The American offense looks thin, but that did not stop them from drubbing the host Belarussians 6-1 in their opener. Perennial Team USA standout is Craig Smith, who had 52 points with Nashville this year. Tyler Johnson of the Tampa Bay Lightning had a breakout year of his own with 50 points, while Tommy Wingels of the San Jose Sharks had 38 points. After that, it is scoring by committee, with the most recognizable name of the remaining players being Justin Abdelkader of the Detroit Red Wings. Tim Stapleton and Peter Mueller, both productive players in the KHL and Swiss league, respectively, bring some big-ice experience to the table. It is a mixed group, but it could be effective.

Unlike the Canadians, the American squad is not expected to be lights out. They might take some opponents by surprise. And this is a group of committed players, many of whom have experience in the US national hockey program. They could surprise - and repeat as medalists.


Though ranked in third on paper, the Russians appear to be the subjective favourites going into this tournament. After the disappointing performance on home ice in the Olympics, the Russians definitely have a chip on their shoulder. They over-powered the Swiss 5-0 in the first game of the tournament, so things are off to the right start.

The Russians have the most highly valued goaltending group in Minsk, led by Columbus Blue Jackets standout and Vezina winner Sergei Bobrovsky. He put up a .923 save percentage this year, and should lead the Russians all the way. If he falters, however, they could do much worse than the Carolina Hurricanes' Anton Khudobin, who had a .926 save percentage in 36 games for the Hurricanes. Andrei Vasilevski is a good young goaltender for the Russians, coming off a strong season in Ufa.

The Russian defense is lacking, however, with only two NHLers among them: Dmitri Orlov of the Washington Capitals and Anton Belov of the Edmonton Oilers. Yevgeni Medvedev of Ak Bars Kazan and Maximum Chudinov are decent KHLers, but this is a blueline group that is not very dangerous.

Update (13/05/14): Injuries are taking their toll on the Russian team, as Dmitri Orlov and Andrei Loktionov have been knocked out for the rest of the tournament. That leaves a gaping hole on the Russian blueline, and cuts into the depth the Russians had on their first three lines. In the first three games of the tournament, however, the Russians are outscoring their opponents 15-3 so they may not miss these two.

The offense, however, is much better. The top-six is among the best in the tournament, led by Alexander Ovechkin of the Capitals, who had 79 points this season, Artem Anisimov of the Blue Jackets (39) and Danis Zaripov of Metallurg Magnitogorsk, who scored 64 points in the KHL this year. Andrei Loktionov, Nikolai Kulemin, and Yevgeni Kuznetsov round out a talented top two lines, while Alexander Burmistrov (formerly of the Winnipeg Jets, now with Kazan) also has skill. Former NHLers like Viktor Tikhonov, Yevgeni Dadonov, and Sergei Shirokov give the Russians a good mix.

Update (24/05/14): The addition of Evgeni Malkin to the line-up improves the Russians considerably - he had 72 points with Pittsburgh, and becomes the second best player on the team after Ovechkin. With Canada and the United States out of the tournament, Russia is the highest ranked remaining team, and the favourite to win gold.

But it is all about living up to expectations. The Russians have had some difficulty with that. And though they often have a good round robin, is this a line-up that will get through the Canadians, Americans, Czechs, or Swedes at the elimination stage?


The Czechs can never be ruled out at this tournament. Between 2010 and 2012, the team won two bronzes and one gold. The squad sent to Minsk does have some talent, particularly on offense, but they will need their goaltenders to over-achieve.

That is, perhaps, their Achilles' heel. Both Jakub Kovar and Alexander Salak are very good KHL goaltenders, but will need to be at their best when facing NHL shooters. But either can be good enough to win it all.

The defensive group is mixed for the Czechs, led by NHLers Jakub Kindl of the Detroit Red Wings and Roman Polak of the St. Louis Blues. Martin Sevc and Ondrej Nemec are decent KHL-calibre defensemen, but their third pairing may struggle against more powerful opponents.

Update (12/05/14): The addition of Michal Jordan, who had a good year with the Charlotte Checkers of the AHL, gives the Czechs more depth on the back-end.

Update (13/05/14): On the other hand, Jordan cannot make up for the loss of Roman Polak to injury. The Czechs are off to a rough start, with just one overtime win in three games, and so Polak's departure is hardly a good sign.

The offense, however, will be able to hold its own. Led by the ageless Jaromir Jagr, who put 67 points for the New Jersey Devils this year, and Jiri Hudler, left off the Olympic roster despite a strong season in Calgary, the Czechs can be dangerous. Vladimir Sobotka and Tomas Hertl round-out the NHL contingent, and both are quality players. Hertl, especially, may have something to prove after an injury-shortened season. Roman Cervenka, Jiri Novotny, Jakub Petruzalek, and Jakub Klepis, all playing in the KHL, have NHL experience to bring to the table as well.

Update (18/05/14): The offense gets a boost with the arrival of Michal Vondrka, who had 24 points with Bratislava of the KHL. The Czechs need some scoring help, as they are fighting for a playoff spot.

Update (24/05/14): The offense gets even better with the addition of Martin Ruzicka, who had 55 points in the Czech league.

So the Czechs have some strong pieces. If they can score enough to make up for their more lacklustre back-end, the team could medal.


The Swedes are perennial medal contenders at the World Hockey Championship, finishing on the podium in four of the last five years. They may struggle to reach the medal round with this line-up, however.

Their goaltending is usually a strong-point, but Anders Nilsson has not proven himself to be an NHL starter yet with the New York Islanders. Joacim Eriksson, a prospect of the Vancouver Canucks, had a decent year in the AHL but struggled in his one outing for the Canucks.

The Swedes have a decent top-four on defense, led by Tim Erixon (coming off a strong season for the Springfield Falcons of the AHL), Erik Gustafson of the Philadelphia Flyers, Mattias Ekholm of the Nashville Predators, and Magnus Nygren, who split the year between Hamilton and Karlstad of the Swedish league. Johan Fransson and Jonas Ahnelov are capable Swedish league defensemen as well.

The offense will lean heavily on top Swedish league scorers like Joakim Lindstrom, Simon Hjalmarsson, Linus Klason, and Oscar Moller. But Gustav Nyquist put up 48 points in a shortened season for the Detroit Red Wings, while Mikael Backlund played the full year in Calgary. Calle Jarnkrok, who spent most of the year in the AHL, is another up-and-coming prospect for the Swedes.

Update (12/05/14): The addition of Dennis Rasmussen, who has 40 points with Vaxjo of the Swedish league, beefs up the Swedes' top nine.

Update (18/05/14): Niclas Burstrom, who had a decent year in the Swedish league, arrives as reinforcement for a banged-up, but so far very successul, line-up.

If the Swedes get good goaltending from either Nilsson or Eriksson, they could do some damage. The roster has a lot of experience on the big ice and the Swedes often do well with Europe-based players.


Speaking of upsets, the Finns got off on the wrong foot with a 3-2 loss to Latvia in the opener. They will need to do much better if they want to have a hope of advancing to the medal round.

Much lies on the shoulders of Pekka Rinne, who had a shortened season with the Nashville Predators due to injury but is still one of the best goaltenders in the league. Mikko Koiskinen had a stand-out year in the KHL, and could step up to the plate if Rinne hasn't yet found his game.

The Finns will be relying on a lot of European league talent throughout the line-up, but no more so than on defense. Juuso Hietanen had a great year in the KHL, while Jere Karalahti (a former NHLer) played well in the Finnish league. Tuukka Mantyla and Ville Lajunen are reliable as well, but the defensive group does not have a lot of recognizable names.

One of the only recognizable names among the forward group is Olli Jokinen, the only NHLer among the skaters on this team. He had a decent year in Winnipeg with 43 points, and will need the support of former NHLers like Jarkko Immonen, Petri Kontiola, Leo Komarov, and Petteri Wirtanen if the Finns are to have any hope of scoring.

Update (18/05/14): After a slow start, the Finns have found their footing. The arrival of Erik Haula increases the firepower of the offense considerably. Haula had 15 points for the Minnesota Wild after being called up from the AHL, where he was having success. He also had a good playoffs for the Wild. The Finns have had trouble scoring (only Germany has scored fewer goals so far in the group) so Haula is a much-needed addition.

It makes a medal finish a tall order for the Finns. With their opening loss to the Latvians, the Finns are unlikely to cause much further damage as the tournament wears on.


The historic silver medal of last year will be a tough act to follow for the Swiss, and their 5-0 drubbing at the hands of the Russians did not start things on the right foot for the team. But the Swiss surprised their opponents in 2013. There's no reason they can't do it again in 2014 - though they have fewer tools to do the job.

Reto Berra had a difficult year with Calgary and Colorado, but has had much success at this tournament. Swiss hopes count on him. Leonardo Genoni is a good Swiss league goaltender, but if Berra does not get the job done Genoni may not be able to do it.

The Swiss have a good defensive group, thanks in large part to the presence of Roman Josi. He scored 40 points for the Nashville Predators this year and is a top defenseman in the league. Yannick Weber of the Vancouver Canucks, formerly of the Montreal Canadiens, is a quality player as well. Mathias Seger is a workhorse and veteran leader for the Swiss.

Update (18/05/14): Tim Ramholt, a national team regular who has some North American experience, boosts a decent blueline. The Swiss need the help, as a playoff spot is currently not in the cards.

As usual, the Swiss may have difficulty scoring. But they do have some NHL experience to bank upon. Damien Brunner had 25 points for the New Jersey Devils this year, while Sven Bartschi had 11 points with the Calgary Flames. Simon Moser of the Nashville Predators is an interesting prospect. Swiss league top-scorers like Luca Cunti, Benjamin Pluss, Dennis Hollenstein, and Reto Suri will have to up their game.

Update (13/05/14): The loss of Bartschi to injury is catastrophic for the Swiss. He was one of their few offensive weapons. And the Swiss need goals. Their losses to Russia and the United States were, perhaps, expected. But falling to Belarus is a worrying sign for the team. The departure of Bartschi has also dropped the Swiss in the rankings to seventh, behind Finland.

If the Swiss stick to their team concept, and if Berra plays better in Minsk than he did in Calgary, the Swiss could pull off another upset. But it would still be an upset.


The host Belarussians are under the most pressure (all the more so in a country called the last dictatorship in Europe). They are giving themselves their best chance to place higher than the norm, though the opening loss to the Americans was painful.

Their goaltending group is experienced, with Vitali Koval and Andrei Mezin the traditional national starters. Each of them is capable of playing a strong game, though Koval will likely have to carry the ball for the rest of the tournament.

The defensive group is thin, but does have an NHLer in Dimitri Korobov, who played a few games with the Tampa Bay Lightning and had a good season Syracuse of the AHL. Roman Graborenko, a prospect of the New Jersey Devils, has promise, while Vladimir Denisov is a capable KHLer. The rest of the group will struggle to keep up.

Among the forwards, the Belarussians can field two decent lines. Mikhail Grabovski did not have a great year with Washington, but is still the best player the Belarussians can put on the ice. Former NHLers Sergei Kostitsyn and Andrei Kostitsyn have hardly thrived since moving over to the KHL, but still have some skill in them. Geoff Platt (an ex-pat Canadian) and Alexei Kalyuzhny put up decent numbers in the KHL, as did Andri Stas and former NHLer Konstantin Koltsov.

The Belarussians do not have the talent to skate with the big nations, but will certainly be able to put up good numbers among the lower tier teams. That may be enough for the hockey-mad Belarussians.


The Slovaks are still struggling to develop a new generation of NHL-calibre players since the split of Czechslovakia, but some of their brightest young talent will be on display in Minsk.

Jaroslav Janus and Jan Laco will likely split the duties. Janus played a full year with Slovan Bratislava in the KHL, but Laco has had more success at this stage. Neither has the talent of Jaroslav Halak or Peter Budaj, but neither of those did the job for the Slovaks in Sochi.

On defense, Martin Marincin is the only NHLer, and will struggle to lead this blueline group, who primarily play in the Czech league. The more powerful line-ups may be able to eat the Slovak defense alive.

Update (18/05/14): The Slovaks are having a rough tournament, and may not make the playoffs. The addition of Vladimir Mihalik, who has some NHL experience, boosts a weak blueline. The addition of Marcel Hascak, who played with Riga of the KHL this season, gives the offense a bit more depth.

They will have a harder time containing the offense, led by young NHLers Tomas Tatar of the Detroit Red Wings and Richard Panik of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Veterans Ladislav Nagy and Miroslav Satan have a lot of experience to bring to the table as well. Michel Miklik and Juraj Mikus have been decent KHLers as well, while Martin Reway is a young prospect with a lot of upside.

Update (12/05/14): The addition of Andrej Statsny (no relation), who played with Bratislava in the KHL, gives the team a bit more higher-level experience.

But the Slovaks are unlikely to do much damage at the tournament. They do not have the experience on defense. At the same time, however, the Slovaks can pull off an upset or two.


The Danes could certainly have benefited from the presence of Fredrik Anderson of the Anaheim Ducks, because otherwise they have a respectable line-up.

Patrick Galbraith and Simon Nielsen will try to carry the load. Both are capable of playing well but consistency will be hard to maintain for the duration of the tournament.

The defense is led by three players with North American experience: Philip Larsen of the Edmonton Oilers and Markus and Oliver Lauridsen, who plied their trade in the AHL this year. The rest of the line-up, however, has little experience at this stage.

The Danes have three NHLers among their forward group, which will give them some options. Mikkel Bodker had 51 points with the Phoenix Coyotes this year, and will be difficult to contain. Jannik Hansen and Nicklas Jensen are two good Danish players with the Vancouver Canucks organisation. On the other side of the pond, Morten Madsen and Morten Green are coming off good years in the German league, while Jesper Jensen and Frederik Storm had decent years in the second-tier Swedish league.

Update (18/05/14): Thomas Spelling, who had 51 points in the Danish league, provides the Danes with more scoring options up front.

An upset or two is possible for the Danes, but they should be able to handle weaker opponents quite well. They should be in no danger of relegation.


The Germans may struggle more. They do have Philipp Grubauer, who had a good year with the Washington Capitals, to back them up, but they will struggle otherwise.

The defense will be led by Justin Krueger, who has played in North American and played this year in the good Swiss league. Among the German league defenders, Benedikt Kohl, Frank Hordler, and Constantin Braun round-up the top two pairings.

Update (13/05/14): The addition of Dennis Reul, who had 15 points with Mannheim this past season, boosts a lacklustre blueline. The Germans are off to a good start, with wins against Latvia and Kazakhstan.

The offense will struggle with no NHLers among the roster. Felix Schutz, who had a good year in the KHL, and Tobias Rieder, who had a decent year in the AHL, will have to lead the squad. Alexander Barta, Daniel Pietta, and Thomas Oppenheimer are coming off good years in the German league. Leon Draisaitl, who had 105 points for the Prince Albert Raiders of the WHL, could be interesting to watch.

Update (18/05/14): Yasin Elhiz, who had 37 points in the DEL this year, boosts a low-scoring offense. But the Germans are probably not going to make the playoffs at this point. Nevertheless, they should avoid relegation at this stage.


The Kazakhs will be looking primarily to avoid relegation, and they may have a good shot at it.

Vitali Yeremeyev, who played a few games for the New York Rangers ages ago, gives them a decent chance in any game, while Alexei Ivanov had a so-so year in the KHL.

The defensive group has the advantage of familiarity, as five of them played together with Barys Astana. Roman Savchenko, Yevgeni Blokhin, and Maxim Semyonov will lead this group.

Update (13/05/14): The addition of Yevgeni Rymarev, a high-scoring defenseman in the second tier Russian league, boosts the third defensive pairing for the Kazakhs.

Ever wonder what happened to Nikolai Antropov? He will lead this team, after coming off a mediocre season in the KHL. Again, familiarity is an advantage here, as five of the top-six forwards played with Astana in the KHL this past season. Roman Starchenko and Talgat Zhailauov are the most prolific scorers among these, while Vadim Krasnoslobdtsev had a decent year with Nizhni Novgorod.


Thanks to their surprise win over the Finns, the Latvians are probably safe to avoid relegation at this tournament.

Kristers Gudlevskis, who got a brief call-up with the Tampa Bay Lightning at the end of the season and in the playoffs, demonstrated in the Olympics against Canada that he can (nearly) steal a game. Veteran goaltender Edgars Masalskis can take up the reins if Gudlevskis falters.

On defense, the Latvians are rather thin. Arturs Kulda is the best among them, and will need to have good support from Kristaps Sotnieks, Georgijs Pujacs, and Guntis Galvins if the Latvians are to repeat their success against the Finns again.

The Latvians do have some decent forwards, Zemgus Girgensons of the Buffalo Sabres first among them. Former NHLer Kaspars Daugavins has thrived in the Swiss league, while Miks Indrasis, Aleksandrs Nizivijs, and Mikelis Redlihs have some skill.


If they don't rest on their laurels, the French can probably coast on their surprise victory over Canada to avoid relegation.

The French have a handful of NHLers in their roster, the most important of which is Cristobal Huet, formerly of the Chicago Blackhaws and Montreal Canadiens. He played well against the Canadians and had a strong year in the Swiss league. The French may be able to lean on him throughout the tournament.

The defense is the weakest in the tournament, with only Yohann Auvitu playing in a competitive league. Veterans like Nicolas Besch and Baptiste Amar can also do the job.

Among their forwards, however, the French are starting to develop some decent players. Antoine Roussel had 29 points with the Dallas Stars this year, and Stephane Da Costa has done well with Binghamton of the AHL. His few call-ups with the Ottawa Senators have been less impressive. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, who scored the shoot-out winner against the Canadians, is a good player in the strong Swedish league, while Laurent Meunier, Anthony Guttig, Teddy Da Costa, and Damien Fleury are playing outside of the France.

Update (12/05/14): Add addition Eliot Berthon, of Genève-Servette of the Swiss league, to that list.


The Norwegians are usually one of the surprisingly good teams at this tournament, but they may be at risk of relegation in Minsk.

Lars Haugen and Lars Volden are good goaltenders for the Norwegians, with Haugen being a starter in the KHL.

Former NHLer Jonas Holos leads a weak defensive group. He had a decent year in Yaroslavl, but the rest of the line-up plays in the Norwegian league. Mats Trygg, Alexander Bonsaksen, and Daniel Sorvik are national team veterans.

Update (12/05/14): Nicolai Bryhnisveen had a good year in the Norwegian league, and gives the defense a little more scoring potential. Steffen Thoresen, also of the Norwegian league, adds to the forward group.

The Norwegian offense is better, but is lacking their strongest players like Mats Zuccarello of the New York Rangers and Patrick Thoresen of the KHL. They will have to rely instead on Mathis Olimb and Per-Age Skroder, both of the Swedish league, along with Morten Ask, Ken Andre Olimb, and Martin Roymark. But this group may struggle to score more than most Norwegian line-ups.


The weakest team in the tournament, by a fair margin, is Italy. They will almost certainly be relegated, losing 3-0 to Norway in their first outing.

There are a few players who may punch above their weight, however. Andreas Bernard played the year in the decent Finnish league, and could steal a game or two. Defenseman Thomas Larkin played a few games in the AHL for Springfield as well as with Evansville of the ECHL, while Alex Trivellato had six points with Berlin of the German league.

Among the forwards, Brian Ihnacak is an interesting player. He had 81 points in the Italian league, good enough to get a call from Malmo of the second-tier Swedish league. Diego Kostner also played the season in Switzerland, scoring 19 points with Lugano. But overall, the Italians should be over-powered by almost every team in the tournament.