Riding History: Halifax

Two premiers, two Leaders of the Opposition, three federal party leaders, and a prime minister: the federal riding of Halifax has been represented by a lot of powerful men and women. Fitting, perhaps, for one of Canada's oldest provincial capitals. But for almost two decades Halifax has been shut out of the halls of power in Ottawa. Is that about to change?

The riding of Halifax has an unusual history, in that for the first century of its existence it returned two MPs to Ottawa, rather than one. The riding occupied what is today the Halifax Regional Municipality, and parties could place two candidates on the ballot. Voters could make two choices.

It makes for a somewhat more convoluted history to recite, but it is also a good example of what can happen in ridings with multiple candidates. In all but five of 27 general elections held in Halifax until 1968 only one party captured both seats. It was very rare for voters to select candidates from two different parties, though most of those elections were decided by the slimmest of margins.

The first election in Halifax was different from any other. Instead of the usual contest between Liberals and Conservatives, the 1867 vote in Nova Scotia was primarily between Joseph Howe's Anti-Confederation Party, which opposed Nova Scotia joining Canadian confederation, and the Conservatives.

Howe's party triumphed in Nova Scotia, as well as in Halifax, though it was close: 52.4% for the two anti-Confederate candidates against 47.6% for their pro-confederation opponents.

Alfred Jones

One of the two was Alfred Jones, a merchant involved in the West Indies trade who was born in Weymouth and who moved to Halifax at the age of 18. It would be his first of eight federal election attempts (four of which were successful).

Staunchly anti-confederation since 1864, he nevertheless decided to take his seat in the House of Commons after winning election in Halifax. In his maiden speech, he said he would "support good measures and oppose bad, without regard to either party."

Patrick Power

The other anti-Confederate was Patrick Power, a dry goods merchant born in County Waterford in Ireland, but whose family had immigrated to Nova Scotia in 1823. Unlike Jones, Powers initially refused to take his seat in Ottawa, but finally relented in 1868.

Once it became clear that, despite their victory at the polls, the Anti-Confederates would not get their way, Joseph Howe led most of his party into John A. Macdonald's cabinet. Neither Power nor Jones followed. Jones was especially angered at Howe's betrayal, and actively campaigned against him in the by-election that followed Howe's naming to cabinet. Arguing that a victory by Howe would mean "Canadian rule for ever", Jones failed to prevent Howe from winning.

In 1872, Power ran as an Independent Liberal and Jones just as an independent, and both failed to secure re-election by a slim margin. Power took 2,452 votes and Jones 2,430, while William Almon of the Liberal-Conservatives captured 2,528 votes and Stephen Tobin of the Liberals took 2,486.

Almon, an influential and important physician in the province, was about as pro-Confederate as it gets - he was a supporter of the Confederacy during the American Civil War and was said to have been personally thanked by Jefferson Davis, president of the South. Tobin had a less unusual history, being an insurance agent and merchant who served as mayor of Halifax from 1867 to 1870.

When the next federal election occurred in 1874, both Almon and Tobin chose not to run again. Both would continue their political careers elsewhere, however, as Almon would be named to the Senate in 1879 by Macdonald and serve until 1901. Tobin would be mayor of Halifax again between 1878 and 1881.

This paved the way for the re-election of both Power and Jones, as they were up against only one independent candidate. Power was listed as an Independent Liberal again and Jones an independent, but both were supporters of Alexander Mackenzie's Liberals in Ottawa.

The Conservatives and Borden to the fore, 1878-1935

Halifax would see two federal elections in 1878. The first was a by-election forced by Jones's resignation. Seeing the writing on the wall that he would be booted from the House of Commons, Jones stepped down for an apparent conflict of interest (a government contract had been awarded to the Halifax Citizen, in which he had some holdings). He nevertheless won the by-election, and was named Minister of Militia and Defence for the rest of the year.

Matthew Richey

But then the 1878 general election occurred, and both Jones and Power were defeated. This time Halifax sent an all-Conservative slate to Ottawa, as Matthew Richey and Malachy Bowes Daly were elected. Richey had a long history in municipal politics, being a councilor from 1858 to 1863 and mayor twice from 1864 to 1867 and from 1875 to 1878. Daly was a lawyer and a keen cricketer, having played with the national team on several occasions.

M. B. Daly

Richey and Daly would win re-election in 1882 (beating Jones again), though with reduced numbers. Richey did not finish his term, as he resigned in 1883 to become the Lieutenant-Governor of Nova Scotia.

John Stairs, a wealthy industrialist, was acclaimed in his place. Recruited by Charles Tupper, this former provincial Liberal-Conservative would become a confidant of Macdonald.

John Stairs

But Stairs's tenure would be cut short in 1887. Daly declined to run again but Stairs stood for the first time in front of the electorate, coming up short. Jones, now with the Liberals, was elected, as was Thomas Kenny of the Conservatives, a merchant from a wealthy family.

Stairs had better luck in 1891, as he and Kenny were elected. But Jones and Edward Farrell, his running mate, accused Stairs and Kenny of 'bribery and other illegal acts', leading to the election results of 1891 being declared void. It didn't matter, though, as both Conservatives were returned to Ottawa in 1892.

By 1896, Jones was through with elected politics (but he would be named Lieutenant-Governor in 1900, serving until his death in 1906) and declined the Liberal nomination. Stairs, too, was done with federal politics. He stepped aside to make room for a certain Robert Borden, and returned to provincial politics. He took over the Nova Scotia Liberal-Conservative Party, leading it to catastrophic defeats in 1897 and 1901.

Robert Borden

Though Kenny was not successful in securing re-election (Benjamin Russell, a Liberal lawyer, won instead), Borden did manage to fill Stairs's seat. Borden, a 42-year-old lawyer born in Grand Pré, had become known to the Conservatives in work he had done for the Macdonald government. Before long, he was arguing cases in Ottawa and was asked by Tupper to run in Halifax. After his narrow victory, Borden sat on the backbenches as Wilfrid Laurier's Liberals took power in 1896. But by 1899, Borden had been moved to the front opposition benches and was seen to have a bright future in the party.

William Roche

Borden, along with Liberal William Roche, won the election in Halifax in 1900. But Tupper stepped down as Conservative leader, and threw his weight behind Borden as his replacement. He was a fresh face for the Conservatives, but Borden was reluctant. He believed that it "would be an absurdity for the party and madness for me." He nevertheless agreed to run, and became leader of the party (and the opposition) in February 1901. He would serve as leader of the party for the next 19 years.

He would go through some rough patches, however. In the 1904 election, Laurier's Liberals were re-elected and swept both of the seats in Halifax. Borden came up short by some 500 votes, but decided to stay on as leader (Laurier allowed Borden to be acclaimed for the riding of Carleton when it became vacant in 1905).

Instead of Borden, Roche was re-elected and joined by Michael Carney, a businessman born in Ireland. With 52.5% of the vote, it was the best performance by a joint-list of Liberal candidates since Confederation.

The pendulum swung back to the Conservatives in Halifax in 1908, as Borden and Adam Crosby (a former mayor) defeated both Roche and Carney. Laurier would late name Roche to the Senate, where he would sit until 1925.

Borden had increased the Conservatives' seat haul in Ottawa, but he had again failed to lead the party to victory. He decided to stay on, and would have to quell a few revolts within his own party along the way.

Borden and Winston Churchill, 1912

This all changed in 1911, as Borden led his Conservatives back into government against a tired Liberal Party. Borden won his seat but Crosby did not (Borden would name his seat-mate to the Senate in 1917), and Alexander MacLean of the Liberals instead split the ticket. It was an incredibly close election, with both the Conservatives and Liberals taking 50% of the vote. Borden topped the list with 25.5%, followed by MacLean at 25.1%, Edward Blackadder with 24.9%, and Crosby with 24.5%.

Borden was now Prime Minister, and he also took on the portfolio of Secretary of State for External Affairs. His first term in power would soon become quite complicated, as Canada was brought into the First World War in 1914.

By 1917, the killing fields in Flanders had bled the Canadian Army dry, and new recruits were being woefully outnumbered by the casualty lists. Borden wanted to enact conscription, and invited Laurier to join him in a unity government. Laurier declined, but many of his MPs from outside Quebec, where conscription was extremely unpopular, crossed the floor.

Alexander MacLean

One of them was Alexander MacLean, who ran with the Unionists in 1917. Borden, however, had moved to the riding of Kings in Nova Scotia, allowing both MacLean and Peter Martin to be acclaimed for the riding of Halifax. No Liberal ran against them.

By 1921, the country and Borden had moved on from the Conservatives. The Liberals, under Mackenzie King, were brought to power and Blackadder and MacLean (now back with his old party) won Halifax handily. They took a combined total of 53% of the vote, with the Conservatives, now under Arthur Meighen, taking just 34%. Two Labour candidates split 13% of the vote between them.

Martin would not run again, as was named to the Senate by Meighen and would sit there for Nova Scotia until 1935.

Robert Finn

A by-election was held in 1922 to replace Blackadder, who had passed away, and the Liberals again won it easily with 54.6% of the vote. Robert Finn, a lawyer, had sat with the provincial Liberals in Nova Scotia from 1906 to 1922, and was a cabinet minister for the last four years of his tenure. He had also been a war correspondent in South Africa during the Boer War.

Another by-election had to be held in 1923 after MacLean was named President of the Exchequer Court of Canada. This time, the country was moving back towards the Conservatives and William Black won the by-election. It was a return to the political theatre for Black, as he had been a provincial Conservative for three years at the end of the 19th century.

William Black

Meighen narrowly won the 1925 election, and this began three consecutive election victories for the Conservative duo of Black and industrialist Felix Quinn in Halifax. Black would sit in cabinet as Minister of Railways and Canals and Minister of Marine and Fisheries in Meighen's short-lived government.

After being re-elected in 1926, though Meighen was defeated, and 1930, when R.B. Bennett brought the Tories back to power, Quinn was named to the Senate, where he would sit until 1961. Black was not so lucky, dying in office before the 1935 election.

Liberal dominance under King and St-Laurent, 1935-1957

Gordon Isnor

The depression had gutted Bennett's re-election chances, and the country and Halifax swung back to the Liberals under King. With two Reconstruction candidates taking 13.3% of the vote, the Liberals easily won a majority as Gordon Isnor, a merchant and former provincial MLA who had served during the First World War, and Robert Finn were sent to Ottawa.

By 1940, the country was back at war. Finn tried running as an Independent Liberal but was unsuccessful as William Macdonald, a lawyer and veteran, took his place. The Liberals dropped below the majority threshold, however, as the Conservatives rebounded and Finn took a fair share of the vote. A lone CCF candidate, meanwhile, took 1.8%.

William Macdonald

The CCF was boosted to 16.9% in 1945, but both Macdonald and Isnor were re-elected as King led Canada victoriously out of the Second World War.

Macdonald did not survive the peace for very long, passing away in 1946. The by-election to replace him in 1947 was won by Liberal John Dickey, a lawyer who had served as a major in World War II and was Associate Prosecutor for the Canadian War Crimes Liaison Detachment in the Far East. Notably, the CCF candidate placed second, ahead of the (now) Progressive Conservatives, with 29.7%.

John Dickey

The Isnor-Dickey ticket was re-elected in 1949 by a wide margin (with a combined 57.1% of the vote, it was the best the Liberals would ever do), and in 1950 Isnor was named to the Senate by Louis St-Laurent, where he would sit until 1973. The by-election to replace him was won by Samuel Balcom, a pharmacist and veteran of two world wars.

Dickey and Balcom won the 1953 election against a rejuvenated Progressive Conservative Party, as the CCF vote plummeted to just 3.9%.

Conservative return and the Stanfield era, 1957-1988

Edmund Morris

Dickey and Balcom did not survive the 1957 election, as John Diefenbaker's Tories were narrowly elected to a minority government. Robert McCleave, an editor at the Halifax Chronicle-Herald, and Edmund Morris, a broadcaster and journalist, took their place in a close contest.

The sweeping victory Diefenbaker won in 1958 was repeated in Halifax, as McCleave and Morris capturing 59.9% of the vote, the party's best result in the riding since 1925. But their big victory was reduced dramatically in 1962, as the McCleave-Morris ticket took just 46.9% of the vote to the Liberals' 45.4%. The NDP, in its first election, took 6.7% of the vote.

There was a brief Liberal interregnum in Halifax in 1963. McCleave went down to defeat while Morris chose not to run again, continuing his political career later on as mayor from 1974 to 1980 and as a Nova Scotia PC MLA and cabinet minister from 1980 to 1988.

Their replacements were Liberals John Lloyd, an accountant and twice mayor of Halifax, and Gerald Regan, another lawyer and father to future MP Geoff Regan.

Robert McCleave

The PCs returned in 1965, as Lloyd was defeated and Regan moved on to provincial politics, where he would become Liberal leader in 1967 and serve as premier from 1970 to 1978. McCleave was returned, along with businessman Michael Forrestall.

In 1968, the electoral boundaries were changed and Halifax joined the rest of the country as a single-member district, being reduced from Halifax County to just the city itself. Forrestall chose to run in nearby Dartmouth-Halifax East, which he would represent into the 1980s. He would later sit in the Senate from 1990 to 2006.

Robert Stanfield took up the PC banner in Halifax. Stanfield had been named leader of the Progressive Conservatives in 1967, after running the Nova Scotia PCs for almost 20 years and serving as premier from 1956 to 1967. Stanfield would continue his service as Leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons until 1976.

Robert Stanfield

But his first foray into federal politics was a successful one, at least locally, as he took 60.3% of the vote in Halifax, the best any PC or Conservative would ever do in the single-member district. But Stanfield was powerless against the Trudeau juggernaut in the rest of the country, and saw both his party's vote and seat share drop from his predecessor's performance in 1965.

Things improved in 1972, as Stanfield reduced Trudeau to a minority government. His vote share dropped slightly in Halifax, though, as the NDP went from 4.1% to 12.3% of the vote, taking from both the PCs and Liberals.

He could not prevent a majority win for Trudeau in 1974, however, and his vote share dropped again in Halifax to 49.3%. The Liberals boosted their score to 40.7% in the riding as the NDP fell back.

Failing to topple Trudeau in three consecutive elections, Stanfield resigned as leader in 1976 but continued on as the MP for Halifax until the 1979 election. Stanfield would be done with active politics, but for his service at both the federal and provincial levels the international airport in Halifax was named after him in 2007.

Joe Clark won more seats than the Trudeau Liberals in 1979, but George Cooper, a lawyer and future Order of Canada recipient, nearly failed to hold on to the riding of Halifax with 40.5% of the vote to 40.4% for the Liberal candidate. Of note is the candidacy of Alexa McDonough for the NDP. She took 18.5% in her first federal election attempt.

Cooper was defeated in 1980, as Regan made a return to federal politics. He would be named Minister of Labour and subsequently Secretary of State, Minister for International Trade, and Minister of Energy, Mines, and Resources over the next four years.

But the PCs returned to power in 1984 under Brian Mulroney, and Halifax swung back to the PCs as well. Regan was defeated, and his political career was over. He would later be accused of committing a large number of sexual offences over his long political career, including while he was premier. He was acquitted of some, but other charges were later dropped due to the age of the accusations and Regan himself. A cloud still hangs over him.

Stewart McInnes instead won the riding in 1984, and would be named Minister of Supply and Services in 1985 and later Minister of Public Works.

Women to the fore, 1988-present

Though Mulroney was re-elected in 1988, McInnes narrowly lost his riding to the Liberals' Mary Clancy. Not only would this be the last time a conservative represented the riding, but also the last time its MP would be a man.

Clancy was re-elected in 1993. The PC vote plummeted to just 20.7% as Reform took 14.5% of the vote here.

By 1997, the NDP had recovered from its drubbing in 1993 and had named McDonough as its leader in 1995. McDonough was a seasoned political veteran by now, having been leader of the Nova Scotia New Democrats from 1980 to 1994. That made her the first woman to lead a major provincial or federal party in Canada. She easily defeated Clancy, with the best performance to date for an NDP or CCF candidate. She took 49% of the vote, as Clancy fell to third with 21.6%, behind the PC candidate.

McDonough would be re-elected three more times between 2000 and 2006, stepping down as leader in 2003 but continuing on as an MP for two more elections. Her vote share would fluctuate over this period between 40% and 47%, but only in the 2004 election did the Liberals come close to toppling her. The newly merged Conservative Party would not take more than 21% of the vote in its four elections in Halifax.

McDonough did not run for re-election in 2008. Megan Leslie, a community legal worker, took her place. She won 42.7% of the vote, down from McDonough's performance in 2006 but better than the 2000 and 2004 results, with the Liberals in the midst of their decline. The Green Party captured 8.7% of the vote, their best performance.

After a successful first term during which Leslie was named Best Rookie MP by Maclean's, Leslie won re-election in 2011 with 51.6%, the best the NDP has ever done in the riding. The Liberals dropped to 25.6%, their lowest since 1997, while the Conservatives dropped a few points as well. In 2012, Leslie was named one of the NDP's deputy leaders.

Where does Halifax go from here? For a time, it looked like the Liberal surge in Atlantic Canada could be powerful enough to swamp Leslie and the NDP in Halifax. But the Liberals have since dropped in the region, and the NDP has improved, which makes Halifax a riding that the NDP is likely to retain.

Halifax has not had an MP sitting on the governing benches since 1997, the longest period in its history. With the NDP leading in the polls at the time of writing, and the Conservatives unlikely to secure a majority government in even the best of circumstances, could that streak come to a close?

Riding History: Winnipeg North

A few threads run through the history of Winnipeg North. One is that the riding has, for the great bulk of its history, kept itself out of the corridors of power. Another is the thread of the labour movement, and the spectre of communism. Accordingly, our story starts with the Winnipeg General Strike of 1919.

Winnipeg North was created in 1917. Its predecessor ridings were those of Selkirk and Winnipeg, which it shares in common with the riding of Winnipeg South Centre. You can review the history of these ridings prior to 1917 here.

Winnipeg North's first MP was a Conservative, Matthew Blake. A physician born in Ontario and educated in Toronto, Dublin, and London, Blake won the riding in 1917 with 74% of the vote, easily trouncing his Liberal opponent in the midst of the First World War. 

That war was good for business - but not so great for workers. When the strike was launched in May 1919, a few months after the end of the war, it found in Matthew Blake an opponent.

Winnipeg General Strike

Speaking of the strike in the House of Commons on June 2, 1919, Blake theorized that "the aim and object of many of the workingmen today seems to be to get the most possible money for the least possible expenditure of energy. The tramp says the world owes him a living, and he is going to get it. I hope we are not coming as a nation to the same status as the tramp."

Matthew Blake

Suffice to say, Blake was defeated when he faced his tramp-like constituents again in 1921.

It was an election dominated by memories of the strike. Opposing him were Robert Russell, the Socialist candidate and a leader of the strike, who captured 29.4% of the vote, and Edward McMurray, a barrister who had served as defense counsel for the strike leaders. McMurray won the riding for the Liberals in a close-run three-way race, with 36%. Blake saw his support collapse to just 29%, putting him in third place.

The rise of Labour

McMurray was named Solicitor General of Canada in 1923. As was the convention at the time, he forced a by-election to be held. But rather than allow McMurray to be acclaimed, as was also the convention, the Labour Party put up a candidate (the Conservatives did not). This was Abraham Heaps, another one of the strike leaders, and he captured 33% of the vote. McMurray prevailed with 65%.

He stayed in his post until 1925, when he resigned "over matters of a professional and private nature". But he took another shot at re-election - as did Blake.

But it was Heaps of the Labour Party that won, taking 39% of the vote to 32% for Blake's Conservatives and McMurray's Liberals.

Heaps had been jailed during the strike, but was later acquitted of sedition. He had political experience, being a city councilor for Winnipeg since 1917. He had labour experience as well, being a member of the Trade Union Council.

He was the strikers' man, and he was re-elected easily in 1926 and 1930, taking 49% of the vote in each election. Poor Blake even tried another comeback in 1930, only to fall short for the third time.

The CCF-NDP era

By the 1935 election, Heaps and other MPs from the labour side of the spectrum had joined together to form the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF). Under this new banner, Heaps again won re-election with 42% of the vote, defeating the Liberals and the leader of the Communist Party, Tim Buck, who captured 25%.

The storm clouds of war were gathering over Europe, and in the House of Commons Heaps fought against putting quotas on Jewish immigration. But when war broke out, Heaps, a pacifist, was on the wrong side of the debate. His opposition to the war did not go over well with Jewish voters, and he was defeated in 1940.

The winner was Charles Booth of the Liberals, who had failed to win the riding in 1935. The riding could not have swung any more dramatically, as Heaps the pacifist was replaced by Booth the war hero.

A veteran of the First World War and a pilot who served with the Royal Air Force and the Royal Canadian Air Force in the 1920s, including a stint in northern Russia during the Russian Civil War fighting the Bolsheviks, Booth renewed his service during the Second World War. He was posted to the 1st Canadian Corps HQ in London, and was named a Brigadier and Deputy Adjutant General in 1943. Due to these responsibilities, however, Booth only sat in the House of Commons once, while he was on leave from duty.

Booth decided not to run for re-election in 1945, and the riding swung back to the CCF. Alistair Stewart, a Scot who immigrated to Canada at the age of 25, was an accountant and a founding member of the party. He took 38% of the vote as the Communists finished in second place with 27%, beating out the Liberals.

Alistair Stewart

Stewart would secure re-election three more times in 1949, 1953, and 1957. By the end of his tenure, he was capturing 49% of the vote. The Liberals managed to move back into second place, as the Communists were replaced by the Labour-Progressives. Nevertheless, the LPP captured 17% of the vote in 1949, but that dropped to 8% by 1953.

By 1958, the tide was turning and the Progressive Conservatives under John Diefenbaker, elected to a minority government the year before, stormed the electorate to win a huge majority. Murray Smith, the PC candidate in Winnipeg North, was one of the beneficiaries, eking out a victory with 42.4% of the vote to Stewart's 42%. Smith was the first Tory elected in the riding in over 40 years. He would also prove to be the last.

Smith was the first MP for the riding to have been born in Manitoba, and 1958 had another first for Winnipeg North. Nina Partrick, a 'housewife', was the Liberal candidate and the first woman on the ballot in the riding. She took just 12% of the vote, the worst the Liberals would ever do in this riding until 2008.

The riding returned to form in 1962, as David Orlikow, a pharmacist and labour educator, won the riding for the newly formed New Democrats. He captured 37% of the vote, as Smith's PCs dropped to 28%.

David Orlikow

Orlikow was an experienced politician, having been a municipal alderman and later a CCF and NDP MLA in the Manitoba legislature. He would hold numerous critic portfolios in his long tenure as an opposition MP. But he might best be remembered for a strange situation involving his wife, the CIA, and experiments with mind control. 

He should also be remembered as Winnipeg North's longest-serving MP, occupying the post for over 26 years and serving under Tommy Douglas, David Lewis, and Ed Broadbent. He was re-elected an incredible eight times, capturing over 40% of the vote in every election between 1965 and 1984 (and a majority of it in 1979 and 1980). 

He fended off the Liberals in the 1960s, including in 1968 when Pierre Trudeau won his first election and the Liberals came close to ousting him. He then fended off the Progressive Conservatives, who supplanted the Liberals as runner-up in the 1970s and early 1980s.

Brief Liberal interregnum

But Orlikow's winning streak came to an end in 1988, when he was defeated by Rey Pagtakhan of the Liberals. Pagtakhan was the first MP from the Philippines to be elected to the House of Commons, fittingly for a riding that is today the one with the most Filipinos in the country. A doctor and school trustee, Pagtakhan took 38% of the vote in the 1988 election, just squeezing past Orlikow's 34%. The Tories took 25% in this close race. Also on the ballot here in 1988 was a candidate for the fledgling Reform Party, capturing 2%.

Pagtakhan was re-elected in 1993, as the PC vote collapsed to just 5% here and the NDP dropped to 32%, marking its worst performance in its history (including that of the CCF). In 1996, Pagtakhan was named Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, the first MP from Winnipeg North to get this close to cabinet since the days of McMurray.

The return of the NDP

The riding boundaries shifted in 1997, and Pagtakhan went on to run in Winnipeg North - St. Paul. The new boundaries helped the NDP in Winnipeg North Centre, as Judy Wasylycia-Leis won it for the NDP with 50% of the vote. And this after her dismal performance in Winnipeg North in 1993.

Results, 1988-2011

Wasylycia-Leis had a long history with the NDP at this point, being a staffer for the party and a provincial candidate for the Ontario NDP. She sat in the Manitoba legislature as an NDP MLA from 1986 to 1993, and was a cabinet minister over that time.

She captured 58% of the vote in 2000, at that moment the highest share of the vote won by any party in the riding since 1923.

The boundaries shifted again in 2004, and Winnipeg North took its present shape. Pagtakhan decided to run here for re-election after successfully winning in 1997 and 2000, but fell short. Wasylycia-Leis took 48% to Pagtakhan's 37%.

She returned to her thumping victories in 2006 (57%) and 2008 (63%) as the Liberals' vote collapse - first to 21% in 2006 and finally 9% in 2008. The Conservatives moved back into second place here, but with 22% were still far behind.

Lamoureux and the Liberals

In 2010, however, Wasylycia-Leis resigned her seat to run for mayor in the first of two unsuccessful bids for the job.

The by-election was supposed to be an easy win for the NDP, coming off their 40-point victory in 2008. But the Liberals managed to recruit Kevin Lamoureux, a long-time Liberal MLA for the riding of Inskter first elected in 1988. He ran twice for the provincial party leadership, in 1993 and 1995, losing both times.

With Lamoureux on the ballot, the Liberals pulled off a stunning victory with 46% of the vote, the party's best performance since 1993. The NDP finished second with 41% of the vote.

Nevertheless, the riding was still dominated by the NDP's long history. And in the context of a worst-ever performance nationwide in 2011, Lamoureux would not have an easy time securing re-election in 2011.

He managed it, though just barely. With 9,097 votes, Lamoureux beat out the NDP's Rebecca Blaikie, who took 9,053 votes. Two-tenths of a percentage point separated the two, as the Conservatives improved their share from 11% in the by-election to 26%.

But coming from such a low ebb, Winnipeg North looks to be a Liberal hold in the coming election. In the context of its history, however, that makes it - for the time being - a Lamoureux riding. Over the last 90 years, an MP from Labour, the CCF, or the NDP has failed to win only six times. That is a lot of historical baggage for the Liberals to keep locked away indefinitely.

Riding History: Skeena-Bulkley Valley

Representatives of the riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley have sat on the opposition benches for all but five of the last 58 years. Currently represented by NDP MP Nathan Cullen, the riding is tucked away in the northwestern corner of British Columbia, bordering Yukon and Alaska. It is a vast, sparsely populated riding. Every square kilometre has a mere 0.3 people in it. And they have reliably voted NDP for most of the last half century.

This is the fifth riding the history of which I am profiling as part of the 2013 Kickstarter campaign. This riding was requested by backer Jonathan Van Barneveld, who generously contributed to the project that led to Tapping into the Pulse: Political public opinion polling in Canada, 2013. The ebook can be ordered here, or directly from Gumroad here and Amazon for your Kindle here.

Conservative dominance, 1871-1891

What is now Skeena-Bulkley Valley began as the riding of New Westminster in the new province of British Columbia in 1871. For the first two decades of its existence, the riding was mostly represented by Conservatives, though they only infrequently bothered to face the electorate.

Hugh Nelson

The riding's first MP was Hugh Nelson, an Irisman from County Antrim and a lumber merchant. He was elected as a Liberal-Conservative, the same party he represented in the provincial legislature from 1870 to 1871.

Nelson was a supporter of confederation, and apparently a bit of a pedant. His first recorded words in the House of Commons came on May 28, 1872, during a debate on the Canadian Pacific Railway:

"Mr. Nelson said the hon. gentleman (Amor de Cosmos) had taken the ground that the railway was to terminate on the Pacific Coast, and that a terminus on the island waters between Vancouver's Island and the main land was not the Pacific Coast, and at the same time he advocated that the line should be taken to Victoria or Esquimalt."

Nelson was acclaimed in the 1872 election, but he decided to leave politics after the Pacific Scandal had pushed John A. Macdonald, a man he supported, out of the top job. His loyalty would be rewarded in 1879, when he was named to the Senate. He would serve there until 1887, when he was named Lieutenant-Governor of British Columbia.

But before Nelson left the House of Commons, he sparked an amusing dust-up between the then Finance Minister, Samuel Tilley, Ontario MP David Mills, and Alexander Mackenzie, the leader of the Liberal Party, as recorded in the hansard. Nelson's last words in the House were delivered on May 7, 1873, when he implored the Government to re-establish trade with the Sandwich Islands (as Hawaii was then known). After Tilley warmly welcome Nelson's words, Mills stood up:

"[Mills] said he had not very clearly heard the hon. gentleman. Were they to understand that he [Tilly] was favourable to asking Her Majesty to give the Government power to negotiate a treaty with the Sandwich Islands? If so, he was becoming a convert to the views of the Opposition.

"Hon. Mr. Tilley remained silent.

"Hon. Mr. Mackenzie: Surely we are to have an answer to this question.

"Hon. Mr. Tilley gave no reply, and the motion was withdrawn."

Nelson was replaced by another Irishman in 1874, when James Cunningham of the Liberals defeated the Conservative candidate by a slim margin. Cunningham resigned in 1878, however, but would be a Liberal MLA in British Columbia from 1884 to 1886.

Thomas McInnes

In 1878, Thomas McInnes, an independent, ran unopposed in the by-election. He was a coroner, physician, and surgeon born in Nova Scotia, a reeve in Dresden, Ontario in 1874 and mayor of New Westminster from 1876 to 1878. Having studied at Harvard University, McInnes had served in the Union Army during the American Civil War.

In the general election held later that same year, McInnes was this time opposed by a candidate whose affiliation is unknown to the record books. McInnes was re-elected with 57% of the vote, but did not finish out his term. He was named to the Senate as an independent in 1881, serving until 1897 when he, too, was named Lieutenent-Governor of the province.

A merchant named Joshua Homer was acclaimed in both the 1882 by-election and federal election as a Liberal-Conservative, but died in 1886.

In the 1887 election, two Conservatives faced off against one another. Donald Chisholm, a teacher, prevailed with 69% of the vote. But he, too, would die in office in 1890 at the age of 68.

G.E. Corbould was acclaimed in the by-election that followed, and secured re-election in 1891 with 76% of the vote against a Liberal candidate.

The Liberal era, 1896-1953

Burrard, 1895

By the 1896 election, the ridings had been re-drawn and the riding of Burrard was created, turning into Comox-Atlin in 1904 and finally Skeena in 1917. The change in boundaries was beneficial to the Liberals, who would hold the riding from 1896 until 1953 with the brief exceptions of the Robert Borden years (1911-1921) and single victories by the Tories in 1926 and the CCF in 1945.

George Maxwell

George Maxwell won the new riding of Burrard for the Liberals in 1896, as Wilfrid Laurier was swept to power nationwide. Maxwell, a Scottish Presbyterian minister was aided by two Conservatives being on the ballot. He won with 48% of the vote, improving that share to 57% in 1900. Maxwell died in office in 1902.

In the 1903 by-election, an insurance executive named R.G. MacPherson retained the riding for the Liberals. An independent Liberal was his main opponent, taking 43% while McInnes, in a failed comeback attempt, took 8%.

William Sloan

MacPherson did not run again in the riding of Comox-Atlin in 1904, choosing instead a successful bid for the riding of Vancouver City. William Sloan, a businessman, was acclaimed, as he would be again in 1908.

Perhaps having no mandate from the voters made it easier for Sloan to step aside for William Templeman in 1909 (he would eventually have a successful provincial career as an MLA from 1916 to 1928 and cabinet minister). Templeman was acclaimed that year.

Templeman was the owner of the Victoria Daily Times (now part of the Times-Colonist), and a man who could not get himself elected. He first tried, and failed, in 1891. He lost two elections in 1896 and one in 1908. His only victory was a 1906 by-election win in Victoria City, and he did manage to get named to the Senate in 1897 by Laurier, holding the portfolios of Minister of Inland Revenue and Minister of Mines.

In 1911, Templeman tried his luck in the riding of Victoria City again, and lost (again). In the first real vote held in Comox-Atlin since 1903, Herbert Clements of the Conservatives won with 53% of the vote, defeating Liberal Duncan Ross, a former MP for Yale-Cariboo. Clements had a political history already, but not in British Columbia: he had previously been the MP for Kent West in Ontario before meeting defeat in 1908.

War broke out in 1914, and when the 1917 election came around Clements ran in the new riding of Comox-Alberni, as the new riding of Skeena had been carved out of the electoral map. Cyrus Peck won Skeena in the riding's first election, taking 57% of the vote for the Conservatives.

Peck was a war hero, a captain in the 30th Battalion who shipped out to Europe in February 1915. He would rise to the rank of Lieutenant-Colonel with the 16th Battalion of the Canadian Scottish Regiment, and served on the Western Front. He was awarded the Distinguished Service Order and Bar in 1917, having "personally led his men in an attack on nests of machine guns protecting the enemy's guns, which he captured."

He was awarded the Victoria Cross, the British Empire's top honour, in 1918, "for most conspicuous bravery and skilful leading when in attack under intense fire."

But the residents in Skeena were not overawed, and in 1921 Peck was defeated by Liberal Alfred Stork, who had been his opponent in 1917. The vote was close, though, with Stork taking 50.3% to Peck's 49.7%.

Stork was a merchant, as well as the mayor of Fernie in 1904 and Prince Rupert in 1910. He secure re-elected in 1925, even though a Progressive candidate captured 10% of the vote. His luck ran out in 1926, however, when James Brady of the Conservatives won with 52%. Brady was from Ireland, and a school principal.

Olof Hanson

The riding returned to form in 1930 when Brady was defeated by Olof Hanson, a Swedish lumberman. Hanson took 55% of the vote for the Liberals, his best showing over three elections. He would win again in 1935 (a Reconstruction candidate took 21% of the vote) and 1940. That was the first election in which the CCF ran a candidate here, the party taking 30% and displacing the Conservatives as the second choice.

The CCF rode that momentum to victory in 1945, when Hanson opted not to run for re-election. Harry Archibald, a young member of the Royal Canadian Air Force, won with 37% of the vote, as 13% went to the Labour-Progressive Party, the vehicle for Canada's communists at the time.

Edward Applewhaite

Archibald met defeat in 1949, however, when Edward Applewhaite of the Liberals took 58% of the vote in a direct face-off between the Liberals and CCF (the Tories did not run a candidate). Applewhaite, a life insurance agent, was the first MP for the riding to actually be born in British Columbia. His great-granddaughter was Deborah Gray, who would later win a 1989 by-election for the Reform Party.

Applewhaite was re-elected in 1953, as a Social Credit candidate captured 24% of the vote to finish third. The election was notable for the candidacy of Ann Minard, a housewife, for the Labour-Progressives. She was the riding's first female candidate, and she took 3% of the vote.

The swing to CCF and the NDP (and Frank Howard), 1957-1988

In the 1957 election, when the Liberals finally met defeat at the hands of John Diefenbaker of the Progressive Conservatives, Skeena began its long history with the CCF/NDP. The party would hold the riding virtually uncontested until 1974, before winning it again by comfortable margins between 1979 and 1988.

Frank Howard

Applewhaite was defeated in 1957, as Frank Howard of the CCF took 39% of the vote (the PCs, after sitting out the previous two votes, captured 25% of the vote, the Liberals 36%).

Howard was a trade unionist out of the logging industry and former BC CCF MLA. He had a rough past, having been convicted for armed robbery at the age of 18 (the biography he would later write was called From Prison to Parliament).

Howard would secure re-election six times, representing the riding from 1957 until 1974. He routinely won with a majority of the vote when he ran under the NDP, topping out at 60% in 1962. His vote share slowly dropped from there, however, until it fell below the 50% mark in 1972 and finally put him in second place in 1974.

Before then, he saw off the Liberals, who fell to between 22% and 33% of the vote for much of his tenure (the Tories were hardly a factor). In 1972, Howard ran for the leadership of the NDP after the departure of Tommy Douglas. He would finish fifth and last on the first ballot with 7%. David Lewis would eventual emerge as the party's new leader.

Jim Fulton

In 1974, Howard finally met defeat (he would continue his political career as an NDP MLA from 1979 to 1985). The Liberals' Iona Campagnolo won with 40% of the vote, and she was the riding's first (and only) female MP. She also made history as the first female president of a federal party in 1982 and Lieutenant-Governor of B.C. in 2001. An Order of Canada recipient, Campagnolo served as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Indian Affairs and Northern Development from 1974, and later as Minister of State (Fitness and Amateur Sport) in 1976 in Pierre Trudeau's government.

But Campagnolo was only a brief Liberal interlude for Skeena, as the NDP won the riding again in 1979 when Jim Fulton, a probation officer, took it with 42% of the vote to 40% for Campagnolo. Fulton would win three more times, pushing his vote up to 53% in 1988, as the Liberals fell to third place behind the Tories during the Mulroney years.

Reform/Canadian Alliance interregnum, 1993-2000

When the NDP's vote collapsed in 1993, Skeena was not spared. The NDP fell to third place behind the Liberals in two of the next three elections, as Preston Manning's Reform Party surged in rural British Columbia. Only when the right was merged in 2004 did Skeena go back to its NDP roots.

In that momentous 1993 election, Fulton opted not to run again and the NDP's vote collapsed to just 21%, its worst ever performance in the riding. Mike Scott of the Reform Party prevailed with 38%, as the Liberals moved into second with 24% and the Tories plummeted to just 7% support. That put them behind the National Party, which captured 8% of the vote here.

Scott was re-elected in 1997 with 42% of the vote, as the NDP vote rebounded to 31% with Isaac Sobol, the former National Party candidate, on the ballot. The PC dropped to just 4%, and would fall further to 3% in 2000.

In that election, Andy Burton, who served as mayor of Stewart for six years, ran in Scott's place for the Canadian Alliance, winning with 43% of the vote.

The Nathan Cullen era, 2004-present

Though the newly merged Conservative Party would be the main competitor to the NDP now in Skeena-Bulkley Valley, the New Democrats under Jack Layton had recovered from the lows of the 1990s. Nathan Cullen, a young HR consultant from Ontario (though he moved to B.C. in 1998), would represent the riding for the next decade.

Election Results: 1988-2011

In 2004, Burton tried to hold onto his riding as a Conservative, but was defeated by the NDP's Cullen. He took 37% of the vote against Burton's 34%, as the Liberals slipped to 22% in the riding.

In 2006, the Liberal vote slumped further to just 13% as Cullen surged to 48% in the riding, holding off a comeback attempt by Scott. Cullen would win again in 2008 with 50% and in 2011 with 55%, as the Liberals fell to just 4% support.

One interesting tidbit about Skeena-Bulkley Valley is the presence of Rod Taylor. He has been the Christian Heritage Party candidate in each of the last four elections, and will lead the party in 2015. The CHP has interestingly done relatively well here, first taking 3.6% of the vote in 1988. Taylor has garnered 3.8%, 3.2%, 3.3%, and 3% support respectively in the elections held since 2004. A footnote, of course, but something about Skeena-Bulkley Valley that sets it apart from many other ridings.

Skeena-Bulkley Valley is a riding the New Democrats can count on. Cullen is a popular MP (he finished third in the leadership race in 2012, with 25% support on the third ballot). The Conservatives have been stuck at between 33% and 36% in the last four elections, despite a consistently increasing vote share nationwide. The Liberals will likely see a boost but have no base from which to build upon. For the foreseeable future, the northwestern corner of British Columbia is likely to remain painted in orange.

Riding History: Beauce

Tucked away in a corner of Quebec along the American border, the riding of Beauce has not changed much since it was created in 1867. And for six decades between 1887 and 1949, it never voted anything but Liberal. But since then, Beauce has been a bit of a rainbow riding, having been represented by Liberals, Conservatives, Progressive Conservatives, Social Credit, and Independents. Today, it is one of the few safe ridings the Conservatives still have in Quebec.

This is the fourth riding the history of which I am profiling as part of the 2013 Kickstarter campaign. This riding was requested by backer Thomas Barré, who generously contributed to the project that led to Tapping into the Pulse: Political public opinion polling in Canada, 2013. The ebook can be ordered here, or directly from Gumroad here, Amazon for your Kindle here, or from Kobo here.

Beauce's first Member of Parliament was a Liberal, Christian Henry Pozer, who defeated a man named Taschereau by 1,180 votes to 629. Pozer was from the region and a lawyer, and he simultaneously represented the provincial riding of Beauce for the Liberals until 1874.

Pozer was not a very active member of the House of Commons. The first recorded statement he made (apart from reporting on the findings of a committee investigating a case of alleged electoral fraud in the riding of St. Hyacinthe, and having another MP ask a question for him in his absence) came only in April 1869, almost two years after he was first elected. But he was no wilting flower, apparently, as the statement came when he contradicted something the Premier of Quebec, Pierre-Joseph-Olivier Chauveau, had said.

Christian Pozer

Chauveau, like Pozer, was also a member of Quebec's National Assembly. In a debate, another MP was saying that some "members might find it a good thing in a pecuniary point of view to attend both Legislatures, and draw indemnities from the Local as well as the General Governments." The member then charged that Chauveau had said in Quebec City that it was within the federal government's jurisdiction to rule on this question. Chauveau disputed this.

But then Pozer spoke up - seemingly for the first time as an MP: "Mr. Pozer was a member of the Legislature of Quebec, and said that if his memory failed not, the hon. gentleman had stated that the Local Legislature could not decide the point, as the Federal Parliament was the proper tribunal."

Chauveau's response? A single word: "Jamais."

Pozer was re-elected in 1872 with a larger majority, and in 1874 no one bothered to oppose him. He was then named to the Senate, where he would sit until his death in 1884.

With Pozer gone, the Conservatives took the riding. Joseph Bolduc won it in a close race, defeating De Lery, a man whose affiliation history records as unknown. Bolduc was just 29 years old at the time, a volunteer in the militia and mayor of St-Victor-de-Tring.

Bolduc, as Senate Speaker

Bolduc's hold on the riding solidified in 1878, when he won it with 79% of the vote. He was re-elected again in 1882. He did not run again in 1884, as he was also named to the Senate, where he would be the Speaker from 1916 to 1922. In all, Bolduc would serve for 48 years in the House of Commons and Senate.

His replacement was Thomas Linière Taschereau, a lawyer and, at 34 years of age, another young man. But Taschereau would not run for re-election in 1887 (though he would get the itch again, and fail, in 1896 and 1900 in the riding of Kamouraska).

Instead the riding swung back to the Liberals in 1887, or at least 'Independent Liberal' Joseph Godbout (he would later run as a Liberal). Godbout was a physician, and would be re-elected three more times.

Joseph Godbout

Beauce got itself another senator when Godbout was named to the upper chamber, where he would sit until 1923. He was replaced by Henri-Sévérin Beland, another physician, who was acclaimed in 1902.

Beland had been the provincial Liberal MNA for Beauce, and was the mayor of St-Joseph-de-Beauce from 1887 to 1899.

Beland would dominate the riding for the next 20 years. He won it in 1904 with 73% of the vote and again in 1908 with an astounding 96% of ballots cast. After winning again in 1911, he was named Postmaster General.

When war broke out, he went overseas and 'served with the Belgian surgical hospital staff'. His work was cut short when he was captured by the Germans, and he would be a prisoner-of-war for three years. He wrote a book about it.

Henri-Sévérin Beland

He was acclaimed in 1917 (one assumes he was re-elected while a POW) and, after winning 90% of the vote in 1921, was named the Minister of Soldiers' Civil Re-Establishment and Minister presiding over the Department of Health. In 1925, Beland would follow in the footsteps of past Beaucerons, and was named to the Senate. He sat there for 10 years.

Édouard Lacroix, a lumber merchant, won the 1925 vote for the Liberals with 78%, hardly missing a beat after Beland's massive majorities. He would take 81% of the vote in 1926, 65% in 1930, and 89% in 1935 against a Reconstruction candidate. He won again in 1940, but crossed the floor in 1943 to sit with the Bloc populaire canadien, a French Canadian nationalist party. He resigned his seat in 1944 to enter provincial politics, representing the party at the provincial level until 1945. Lacroix was the grandfather of Robert Dutil, who is a current Liberal MNA.

With Édouard off the ballot in 1945, his brother Charles tried to hold the riding as an independent, but was defeated by Liberal Ludger Dionne, mayor of St-Georges from 1934 to 1942. The 1945 election would be notable in Beauce for the first candidacy of Social Credit, which took 25% of the vote.

Beauce in 1895

Dionne was defeated in 1949 in a close election, as Raoul Poulin took it with 46% to Dionne's 45% (a Union of Electors candidate took 8%). Poulin was another physician and an independent, but had previously represented the riding for Union Nationale at the provincial level and had also sought election as a provincial Conservative.

Poulin was re-elected twice, first against another Poulin in 1953 (Louis, a Liberal) and again in 1957 against Dionne. One assumes that with Poulin's provincial conservative background, the PCs at the time did not bother to put up a candidate of their own.

This is seemingly confirmed by Poulin's defeat in 1958, when a PC candidate took 17% of the vote and Jean-Paul Racine of the Liberals won with 42% to Poulin's 41%. Racine, mayor of St-Honoré from 1955 to 1957, did not last long, losing in 1962.

He lost to Gérard Perron, a hotelier and candidate for Social Credit. He took 59% of the vote, winning a majority again (and again against Racine) in 1963.

Racine returned to office in 1965, when Perron was defeated in part, it would seem, by the candidacy of Robert Cliche. Associate President of the federal NDP who was named leader of the Quebec NDP in 1965, Cliche took 29% of the vote in a three-way race with Perron (28%) and Racine (41%). Cliche would later improve his share to 44% when he ran in 1968 in Duvernay, but again he fell short.

In Beauce, Ralliement créditiste (as Social Credit was then known in Quebec after a split) returned in 1968 under Romuald Rodrigue, an accountant. Rodrigue took 48% of the vote, but was defeated in 1972 when Yves Caron of the Liberals narrowly edged him out.

Caron defeated Rodrigue again in 1974, and was named Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Agriculture in 1977.

In 1979, however, Caron lost as Pierre Trudeau's Liberals were booted from office nationwide. Instead, Fabien Roy won the riding for Social Credit with 57% of the vote. Roy was the party's leader, and had previously represented the provincial wing in the National Assembly from 1970 to 1975 (he then was part of an off-shoot party called the Parti national populaire until 1979). Though Roy would hold Social Credit's leadership for just a year, he made a mark on Canadian political history by abstaining from the vote of confidence that led to the defeat of Joe Clark's government in 1980.

But Roy was also defeated that year, as Normand Lapointe of the Liberals took the riding back. Lapointe was an insurance agent, and was named Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Labour in 1983.

Results since 1984

Lapointe was swept away by the PC tide in 1984, and Gilles Bernier, a popular radio personality, won the riding for the Tories with 53% of the vote. He won it again in 1988 with 69%.

But in 1993, Bernier was facing fraud charges (he was acquitted) and so could not run under the PC banner. He instead ran as an independent, winning 41% of the vote against just 8% for the PC candidate. The Bloc Québécois, with 36%, came the closest it has ever come to winning the riding that year.

Bernier was named ambassador to Haiti in 1997 (he would serve until 2001), and so the riding was up for grabs in 1997. It was won by Claude Drouin, formerly of the air force and a political advisor, with 49% of the vote. Drouin was re-elected in 2000 and 2004, and would serve as Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Industry, Secretary of State (Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec) and Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister (Rural Communities) over that time.

Drouin did not run again in 2006, and this opened the door for Maxime Bernier, son of Gilles Bernier. A lawyer and businessman and locally popular due to his family ties, Bernier took 67% of the vote in a landslide win (his was the best performance of any Conservative outside of Alberta). The Bloc finished second with 20%.

Bernier was named to cabinet as Minister of Industry in 2006, and was promoted to Minister of Foreign Affairs (and responsible for La Francophonie) in 2007. His career at cabinet was short-lived, however, as he resigned in 2008 after a scandal related to his relationship with Julie Couillard, who had past romantic links to the Hell's Angels. Bernier also left some classified documents at her house.

Nevertheless, Bernier was re-elected in 2008 with 62% of the vote. The Bloc took just 14%. Bernier would be re-elected again in 2011, this time with 51%, as the New Democrats surged to second place with 30% support. The Bloc fell to fourth.

Bernier returned to some favour within the government, and was named Minister of State (Small Business and Tourism) in 2011, with Agriculture being added to his portfolio in 2013.

Beauce is an interesting riding in Quebec, being one of the few in the province that has had a strong conservative/populist bent over the last few decades (since 1962, the Tories have won six times, if we include Gilles Bernier's 1993 win, the Liberals seven, and Social Credit four times). Bernier and the Conservatives remain favoured there. But Beauce is no stranger to significant swings in support. Whether or not the Conservative edge will last beyond Bernier remains to be seen.

Riding History: Winnipeg South Centre

The riding of Winnipeg South Centre and its predecessors has a storied history, having been represented by the first Labour MP ever elected in Canada, the son of a prime minister, a few premiers, and a man whose remains were laid to rest in Westminster Abbey.

This is the third riding the history of which I am profiling as part of the 2013 Kickstarter campaign. This riding was requested by backer Owen Black, who generously contributed to the project that led to Tapping into the Pulse: Political public opinion polling in Canada, 2013. The ebook can be ordered here, or directly from Gumroad here, Amazon for your Kindle here, or from Kobo here.

The history of what would become Winnipeg South Centre starts with the riding of Selkirk, which was first contested in an election in 1871.

It was won by 'Independent Conservative' Donald Alexander Smith with 70% of the vote, or 239 ballots in all. He defeated John Taylor, who took 103 votes.

Smith began working with the Hudson's Bay Company in 1838, being stationed in Labrador before taking charge of the Montreal Department. He was sent as a negotiator during Louis Riel's Red River Rebellion, and later accompanied Sir Garnet Wolseley's famous expedition to the colony.

Lord Strathcona and Mount Royal

Smith was re-elected in 1872 with 81% of the vote. As an independent Conservative, he supported Sir John A. Macdonald, but broke with him in a dispute over having his expenses related to his role in the Red River expedition reimbursed. He turned on Macdonald and voted the government down in 1873 over the Pacific Scandal.

He was re-elected in 1874, still as an independent Conservative, defeating A.G.B. Bannatyne, the Liberal candidate, who would go on to represent the riding of Provencher. In 1878, Smith won his closest election with 50.4% of the vote - defeating another Conservative candidate.

But the election was declared void, and in 1880 Smith fell short. Again, it was a contest between two Conservatives, as Thomas Scott took 56% of the vote to Smith's 44%.

Smith's story only gets more interesting here. After his departure from Manitoba politics, Smith was named President of the Bank of Montreal, a role he held from 1882 to 1887. He was knighted in 1886, and would become the MP for Montreal West from 1887 to 1896.

Strathcona's house in Scotland

While still an MP, he became the governor of the Hudson's Bay Company in 1889. In 1896, he was named Canadian High Commission to Great Britain, fulfilling that role until 1914. In 1897, he was given a peerage as Baron Strathcona and Mount Royal. He was the chairman of the Burmah Oil and Anglo-Persian Oil Company, as well as the chancellor of McGill University from 1889 to 1914.

He was a philanthropist and empire builder, giving away millions of dollars during his lifetime. He and his cousin paid for the construction of the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, and he personally funded Lord Strathcona's Horse, a unit that fought in the Boer War. When he passed, his funeral was held at Westminster Abbey.

Already in 1880, these were big shoes to fill. Scott, born in Upper Canada, was a journalist who had served as MLA for Winnipeg and also as mayor of the fledgling city.

He was re-elected in 1882, when the ridings in Manitoba were re-formed and Winnipeg received its own seat. Scott was a former military man, commanding the Ontario Rifles as a colonel during the Red River Expedition, and raising the 95th Manitoba Grenadiers for service during the North-West Rebellion.

Scott did not seek re-election and in 1887 his place was taken by William Scarth, a Conservative and a Scot. The election was decided by just eight votes.

Hugh J. Macdonald

Perhaps his nerves could not take it, and Scarth did not run for re-election in 1891. Instead, Hugh J. Macdonald stood as the Liberal-Conservative candidate. He also happened to be the son of the prime minister.

Macdonald won more easily, with 57% of the vote against the lone Liberal candidate. But after the death of his father, Macdonald lost his appetite for politics and resigned. Joseph Martin, a former Liberal MLA and Attorney General of Manitoba, was acclaimed in his place in 1893. Martin was a Liberal, the first from that party to represent the riding.

Martin was defeated in 1896, and would later be the Premier of British Columbia in 1900. Macdonald made a return to politics, defeating Martin with 51% of the vote. He was back in the game as he had been named Minister of the Interior and Superintendent-General of Indian Affairs, despite not sitting in the House of Commons. But the Conservatives lost the 1896 election to Wilfrid Laurier, and Macdonald was out of cabinet.

Winnipeg riding, 1895

To make matters worse, the results of the election were declared void and a by-election was held in 1897. That was enough for Macdonald, who thrust himself instead into provincial politics. He would become leader of the province's Conservative Party and then the Premier of Manitoba for much of 1900.

The 1897 by-election was won by R.W. Jamieson, a South African and former mayor of Winnipeg. It was the first time the Liberals won an election in the riding, and they did so with 66% of the vote. But Jamieson passed in 1899, and a by-election was held in 1900.

Arthur Puttee

In an election decided by nine votes, Arthur W. Puttee won as the Labour candidate. He was the first Labour MP to be elected to the House of Commons in Canada. Active in local unions and founder of The Voice, a left-wing newspaper, Puttee benefited from a split in the local Liberal organization and the Conservative decision not to field their own candidate, instead supporting the Liberals.

In the general election held later that year, Puttee again faced off against E.D. Martin, but this time Martin ran as an independent with Conservative support. A faction of the Liberals supported Puttee, and he won with 60% of the vote.

Puttee's luck ran out in 1904, however, when the Liberals united and named their own candidate - one the Conservatives could not support. Puttee took just 13% of the vote in that election, as the Conservatives took 42% and D.W. Bole, a local alderman and pharmacist, won with 45% of the vote for the Liberals. The experiment with the Labour Party was over.

Bole did not last long, declining to run again in 1908. The Liberals named Douglas Cameron, a former MPP from Ontario and future Lt. Governor of Manitoba, as his replacement. But Alexander Haggart of the Conservatives prevailed with 50% of the vote. Puttee did not run again either, and instead a Socialist candidate captured 11% of the vote.

In 1911, Haggart was re-elected with 55% but resigned to give a seat to Robert Rogers, who had been named to cabinet. Rogers was acclaimed later that year.

A former MLA and Minister of Public Works in the provincial government, Rogers had run unsuccessfully for the Conservatives in the riding of Lisgar in 1896. He was named Minister of the Interior and for Indian Affairs, and was briefly the Minister of Mines in 1912. He finally took over the federal Ministry of Public Works in 1912, holding the job until 1917.

But Rogers did not want to form a coalition with Liberals in that election, when the party split between Unionists and those loyal to Laurier. George William Allen instead ran and won with 88% of the vote, smashing the Liberal candidate in the new riding of Winnipeg South.

In 1921, the Liberals under Albert Blellock made a comeback, winning the riding with 54% of the vote. It reverted to the Conservatives in 1925, as Rogers returned to the Conservative fold.

(Note that from 1924 to 1976, another riding named Winnipeg South Centre did exist.  But it lay north of the Assiniboine River.)

Robert Rogers

In 1926, Rogers was defeated by Liberal candidate and former alderman John McDiarmid, another Scot. Rogers would then make an unsuccessful bid for the party leadership in 1927, finishing fifth out of six candidates in the race that saw R.B. Bennett become leader. A re-match with McDiarmid in 1930 went Rogers's way by a slim margin, however. McDiarmid would go on to be a Liberal Progressive MLA and cabinet minister until 1953, when he was named Lt. Governor.

Rogers declined to run again in 1935. An advertising executive and veteran of the First World War, Leslie Mutch, won the riding for the Liberals as Mackenzie King was returned to power. He took 44% of the vote in an election that saw Winnipeg South have its first CCF candidate. The party captured 15%. A Reconstruction candidate took 9% of the vote.

Mutch would be re-elected three more times, serving in the Liberal government throughout the Second World War. In 1945, Mutch won by his closest margin with 39% of the vote to 31% for the Progressive Conservatives and 30% for the CCF. That would be the best performance for the CCF or even the NDP in this riding.

He was a backbencher until 1948, when he was named Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Veterans Affairs. In his last campaign of 1949, Mutch defeated former Conservative MLA Gunnar Thorvaldson, who would find himself named to the Senate by John Diefenbaker in 1958.

Leslie Mutch

In 1953, Owen Trainor, a physician, narrowly won the riding back for the Tories but he died in office three years later. A barrister, alderman, and captain with the 3rd Canadian Infantry Division, Gordon Chown retained the riding for the party in 1957 with 52% of the vote. He was re-elected in 1958 with an increased majority, and became the Deputy Speaker in 1962. In the election held that year, he defeated Margaret Konantz by a slim margin: 41% to 40%. Konantz was the first female candidate the riding had seen. Her listed profession was 'housewife'.

Konantz would become Manitoba's first female MP in 1963, when she won with 44% to Chown's 40%. She was following in the footsteps of her mother, who had been the province's first MLA.

But Konantz did not remain in the House of Commons for long, being defeated in 1965 by Bud Sherman of the Progressive Conservatives. A journalist, future MLA and cabinet minister, Sherman himself was in for only one term when James Richardson won the riding back for the Liberals in 1968 in the whirldwind of Trudeaumania.

Richardson was a business man and decorated WWII pilot. He was named Minister of Supply and Services in 1969, and would start a long reign of Liberal dominance in the riding. From 1968 until 2011, the riding would only vote-in Liberals.

Re-elected in 1972 and 1974 with declining support, Richardson was named Minister of National Defence after the 1972 election. In 1974, he defeated Sterling Lyon of the Progressive Conservatives. At the time, Lyon was a former provincial cabinet minister smarting from a failed bid to take over the Manitoba PCs. But he would later return to provincial politics and be premier from 1977 to 1981.

Richardson did not remain in the Liberal caucus for much longer. He resigned from it in 1978 to sit as an independent, as he opposed "the entrenchment of language rights in the constitution and generally disagree[d] with the government's official languages policy."

By 1979, the riding was now known as Winnipeg-Fort Garry and the Liberals put up Lloyd Axworthy as their candidate. He had been an unsuccessful candidate in Winnipeg North Centre in 1968, and had since served as a Liberal MLA. Provincial politics did not entirely leave him in 1979, as he narrowly defeated former PC leader Sidney Spivak.

Axworthy would win the riding five more times, with his vote share increasing to 46% in 1980 and 1984 and increasing again to between 56% and 61% in the 1988, 1993, and 1997 elections. He was named Minister of Employment and Immigration in Trudeau's government of 1980, and Minister of Transport in 1983. He held off a Bud Sherman comeback in 1984 when the Liberals were otherwise drummed out of power.

In 1988, the riding became Winnipeg South Centre and saw its first indication of the coming split on the right. A Reform candidate took 2% of the vote in that election. That increased to 13% in 1993, when the Tories were reduced to just 9% support in Winnipeg South Centre. Axworthy's margin of victory in that election was almost 50 points.

Results since 2000

Axworthy did not run again in 2000, and school board trustee and former chair Anita Neville took his place. She won with 41% of the vote in that election, as the PCs made a decent showing of 28%. 

In 2004, the merger of the right helped Neville as she increased her share to 47%, the Conservatives taking just 27% of the vote (together, the PCs and Alliance had captured 37% in 2000). Neville was named Parliamentary Secretary for Canadian Heritage and the Status of Women in Paul Martin's government, but lost the job when the Conservatives took power in 2006.

Neville was re-elected, however, this time with just 39% of the vote (then the lowest share the party had captured since 1965). She was re-elected again in 2008 with 42%, while the Conservatives still failed to better their divided showing of 2000.

But in 2011, the positive trend for the Conservatives overcame Neville, and chartered accountant and former Liberal Party member Joyce Bateman was elected with 39% of the vote. Neville took 37%.

As Winnipeg South Centre was one of the better ridings for the Liberals in a very bad election, with the margin being less than two percentage points, one would expect the riding to flip back to the Liberals in 2015.

That would certainly fit with the riding's profile. Since 1988, the Liberals have averaged 48% support, against just 31% for the Conservatives and its predecessor parties. The NDP has averaged 17% support since then, and 13 of the last 14 elections in the riding have gone the Liberals' way. But Bateman can count on an incumbency bonus. It will be a riding to watch in the next campaign.