Wildrose may not be out of it after all

Earlier this month, I noticed mention of an Alberta poll in an article from the Edmonton Journal. It was a poll done privately, but the results were provided to Graham Thompson of that newspaper.

ThinkHQ Public Affairs did the poll, a firm I am not familiar with but is apparently run by someone who used to work with Ipsos-Reid. It was taken in early July, so it's quite old, but it is noteworthy nevertheless as we don't get many polls from the province.

The poll pegs the Progressive Conservatives at 39% support, compared to 30% for the Wildrose Party, 14% for the New Democrats, 11% for the Liberals, and 4% for the Alberta Party.

These results are consistent with an Abingdon Research poll that was released in May, but is at odds with an Environics poll that was conducted in the second half of July. While support for the Liberals and NDP is generally the same, Environics had the PCs at 54% and Wildrose at 16%. Clearly this is a very different result, but aside from ThinkHQ being a newcomer to the political field there isn't much to doubt about this poll. With the permutations of the PC leadership campaign, it is understandable that polls could differ to this extent.

This nine-point gap isn't very useful to Wildrose, as the Progressive Conservatives would still win a large majority with 63 seats. Wildrose becomes the Official Opposition with 18 seats, while the NDP wins six. The Liberals, who at the time of this poll were still leaderless, are booted from the Legislative Assembly.

Obviously, with a new leader at the helm of the Alberta Liberals and a new leader to be chosen by the Progressive Conservatives in October/November, things are bound to change. But this poll does give us an indication that things aren't as smooth for the PCs as many may have thought. This makes the choice of their next leader very important - Wildrose is still well-positioned to take advantage of any misstep.

NDP leadership race: Brian Topp or Thomas Mulcair?

Brian Topp or Thomas Mulcair?

The NDP leadership race may come down to that, but these sorts of things do not always turn out as expected.
In six months, the New Democratic Party will choose its next leader. As is often the case this early in a leadership race, identifying the likely winner is a mug’s game.

Brian Topp, the NDP’s president, is the only officially declared candidate, but Thomas Mulcair, one of two deputy leaders and the only NDP Quebec MP to have been elected prior to 2011, is almost certainly going to throw his hat in the ring as well. They are, at this stage, the frontrunners.

Mulcair is the NDP’s most well-known figure in Quebec and was an important part of the party’s success in that province. He has won three elections in his Montreal riding of Outremont, and was a cabinet minister in Jean Charest’s provincial Liberal government before entering federal politics.

Topp, however, seems to have the backing of the party brass. He recently received a high-profile endorsement from Ed Broadbent, former leader of the party and, before Jack Layton, their most successful. Fluently bilingual (and not just passably so), Topp can communicate with the NDP’s massive Quebec caucus and the party’s new supporters in the province and is only limited by his much lower profile in Quebec.

You can read the rest of the article at The Huffington Post Canada website here.

Five provinces with a combined population of 16.2 million people are heading to the polls in a matter of weeks, and no poll since Tuesday?

I know that we'll see some polls out of PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador before their campaigns end, but I'm shocked that there hasn't been anything out of Manitoba since June. The last poll had Tories and the NDP tied - tied! - and no one has ordered another poll to see what is going on. Come on, Manitoba! I know you have the Jets back, but focus!