Liberals continue to lead in Harris-Decima poll

The latest federal numbers from Harris-Decima were released on Friday via The Canadian Press, showing that Justin Trudeau's Liberals continue to hold a lead over the Conservatives and that stability ensues in Canadian politics.

We have not heard from Harris-Decima since immediately after Trudeau's leadership victory. Since that poll, which was conducted in the last two weeks of April, none of the parties have experienced a statistically significant shift in support.

The Liberals were down two points to 33%, the Conservatives were up one point to 29%, and the New Democrats were up two points to 24%.

The Bloc Québécois was unchanged at 6%, while the Greens were down one point to 6%. Support for other parties was approximately 3-4%, based on the leftovers from Harris-Decima's report.

So Harris-Decima agrees with virtually every other pollster that things have been generally holding steady for the last five months. But Harris-Decima polls continuously, releasing numbers to CP periodically. This is shown by the tracking charts that accompany Harris-Decima's reports. The cropped version of it to the left, showing national support since mid-April, gives an indication of how things have been moving in Harris-Decima's polls.

It generally shows stability with a few blips here and there - the Liberals managed over 35% support a few times, but have also been as low as about 30%. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have not broken 30% while the NDP has not broken 25%. Considering that you expect a little wobbling back and forth in polling, this suggests that voting intentions have been holding steady.

That is the case in most regions of the country, at least in terms of where things have moved since April. There were no shifts larger than a single point in Ontario, where the Liberals led with 38% to 33% for the Tories and 20% for the New Democrats. Atlantic Canada showed no statistically significant shifts either, with the Liberals at 44%, the NDP at 30%, and the Conservatives at 19%, and the Prairies were similarly steady: 45% for the Tories, 26% for the Liberals, and 23% for the Prairies.

There was more movement in Quebec, where the Liberals dropped to 32% and the Bloc Québécois stood at 25%. The NDP was at 23% while the Conservatives were up five points to 14% support.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives were up 11 points to 33%, followed by the NDP at 29% and the Liberals at 28%. The Greens were at 10% support in the province.

Alberta had the most movement, though it is probably just an anomaly. Harris-Decima had the Conservatives down 13 points to only 45% support in Alberta, while the New Democrats were up 19 points to 26%. The Liberals were at 20% support. These numbers make Alberta a very competitive province - assuming these numbers occurred in an election, the Liberals could win three seats and the NDP could win four, leaving just 27 for the Tories. It is difficult to believe that it could actually happen, but this is what might if the numbers province-wide looked like this.

It wouldn't prevent the Conservatives from pulling more seats out of the equation with fewer votes, however. They would likely win around 126 seats, compared to 123 for the Liberals, 54 for the New Democrats, 33 for the Bloc Québécois, and two for the Greens.

It is possible, though, that the Liberals could be under-estimated in Quebec if their support is distributed more broadly outside of Montreal. That has the potential to cut the Bloc seat count down by a few seats, putting the Liberals narrowly ahead of the Conservatives nationwide.

They might not necessarily need the extra seats, though. With a combined 177 seats, the Liberals and NDP would have a working majority. Whether they could make that majority work, however, is another question entirely.

So, steady as she goes in Canada as we get into what is looking like a tumultuous fall session. But the Liberals have to be happy they have been holding the lead for as long as they have been - it puts Trudeau's performance above those of his two predecessors in the office. And they have just two more years to go.

Trudeau tops leadership poll

Late last week, Harris-Decima released a new poll via The Canadian Press on the Liberal leadership race. The contest is still very much in its infancy (if it has even been born yet) but already the numbers are heavily favouring Justin Trudeau - just as they did for Thomas Mulcair throughout the NDP leadership race.

The poll shows that 36% of Canadians would be certain or likely to vote for the Liberals if Trudeau were their leader, a gain of three points since Harris-Decima last asked this question in June. That was double the number of his nearest (and most likely) competitor, Marc Garneau. He managed 18%, unchanged from June.

After Trudeau and Garneau, Mark Carney registered 16% certain or likely supporters, a gain of two points, while Denis Coderre (15%), Gerard Kennedy (14%), David McGuinty (13%), and Martha Hall Findlay (10%) all dropped two points each. They were followed by Deborah Coyne (10%), Martin Cauchon (9%), Geoff Regan (9%), David Bertschi (8%), and Joyce Murray (8%).

Based on the latest information, only Coyne, Bertschi, and Murray are good bets at a run against Trudeau and Garneau. Dominic Leblanc had 12% in this poll, but he has already ruled himself out as a candidate.

This poll would seem to suggest that any leader but Trudeau would cause a drop in support as compared to the 2011 election result, but things are rosier when you remove the "undecideds": 43% for Trudeau, 24% for Garneau, 22% for Carney, 21% for Coderre, and 19% for Kennedy. All the others result in a score of less than 19%.

The amount of data in the Harris-Decima report is relatively thin, but Trudeau is able to draw twice as much support from the New Democrats as he is from the Conservatives. Regionally, Trudeau scored 48% certain/likely voters in Atlantic Canada, 43% in Quebec, 40% in Ontario, 29% in British Columbia, 21% in the Prairies, and 14% in Alberta. These are not dissimilar results to the recent Forum poll.

Denis Coderre would get the support of 35% of Quebecers and Marc Garneau 25%, while Carney's best result was 21% in Atlantic Canada.

Not much contest for Trudeau, especially in Quebec where Garneau is not able to do much better than the Bob Rae-led Liberals. Of course, the leadership contest is just beginning and opinion will undoubtedly change as more candidates enter the fray and all of them, including Trudeau, are more thoroughly vetted. This is not about how Canadians would vote in 2015 but how they would vote now - and right now they would give Trudeau every opportunity to earn their support. Canadians might not know much about him yet, but arguably they know more about him than is usually the case for a new party leader. However, these sort of numbers for Trudeau are very near what looks like the Liberal ceiling - it will be a very difficult task to keep support this high if he does indeed win the race.

Two new polls, two stories

To inaugurate a new sitting of Parliament, polls by Nanos Research and Harris-Decima were released to a curious public. Depending on how one might want to spin the results, there is something for everyone in these polls - not something you want to see when searching for consistency in polling data.

We'll start with the poll by Harris-Decima for The Canadian Press, which was in the field both before and after the poll by Nanos Research.

Harris-Decima's last public poll was conducted between June 7-18 and since then the Conservatives picked up three points to lead with 34%. The New Democrats were down five points to 27%, transforming a one-point edge into a seven-point deficit.

The Liberals were up one point to 24%, while the Greens were unchanged at 7% support.

This is a change of fortunes for the New Democrats. They have not trailed the Conservatives by seven points since Thomas Mulcair became leader of the party at the end of March. The shifts in support for the Tories and the NDP since June are statistically significant, as are the shifts in Ontario. There, the Conservatives were up six points to 39% while the New Democrats dropped nine points to 23%, putting them well behind the Liberals, unchanged at 29%. If that is a true depiction of what is going on in Ontario, the New Democrats are in a lot of trouble.

Shifts elsewhere were within the margin of error. The New Democrats led in Quebec with 31% (-5), followed by the Bloc Québécois at 25% (+4) and the Liberals at 24% (+5). The Tories and NDP were tied in British Columbia with 33% apiece, while the Conservatives led in Alberta and the Prairies. Atlantic Canada is a close race between the New Democrats and the Liberals.

In terms of seats, these numbers would deliver 152 to the Conservatives on the proposed boundaries of the new 338-seat electoral map. The New Democrats would win 96, the Liberals 74, the Bloc 15 (official party status returns) and the Greens one.

The poor showing of the NDP in Ontario is the primary problem for the party in this poll, while their weaker numbers in Quebec open up a swathe of seats to the Liberals and Bloc Québécois. But this poll puts the Conservatives in minority territory, which could be enough to end their time in government. The New Democrats and Liberals could combine for 170 seats, just above the half-way mark.

While the Harris-Decima poll points to a wide Conservative lead, the Nanos poll suggests that the Tories and NDP remain in a neck-and-neck contest.

Nanos was last in the field July 7-12, and since then the Conservatives slipped 1.2 points to 32.4% support. The New Democrats were up 0.1 point to 30.4%, while the Liberals were down 1.9 points to 24.6%.

That Conservative edge is statistically insignificant, and none of the shifts in support suggest any real movement. Status quo, in other words, rather than the changing landscape of the Harris-Decima poll.

No shifts of consequence happened at the regional level, the Conservatives ahead with 35.4% in Ontario (-1.4). They were closely followed by the NDP at 32.6% (+7) and the Liberals with 26.3% (-5). In Quebec, the NDP slipped 5.1 points to 33.7% and were trailed by the Liberals at 24% (-1) and the Bloc at 20.5% (+3.3). And in British Columbia, the Tories had the edge with 34.3% support (-6.1) to 31.1% for the NDP (-3.2) and 21% for the Liberals (+1.5).

The only lead of statistical significance in this poll was in the Prairies, which includes Alberta in Nanos's reckoning. That makes it somewhat more difficult to estimate how to distribute support across the three provinces included in the Prairies.

But with Nanos's numbers the Conservatives would win 148 seats to 114 for the New Democrats and 72 for the Liberals. The Bloc Québécois would win only three seats and the Greens just one.

The difference maker for the NDP in this poll is Ontario and Quebec. While this poll does not give a lot more support to the NDP in Quebec than Harris-Decima does, the poorer showing for the Bloc leaves a lot of Quebec seats in the NDP's hands. The Liberals still manage to take a good chunk. Here again, the Conservatives are in minority territory and outnumbered (186) by the NDP and Liberal opposition.

Nanos includes personal ratings for all of the leaders, and the numbers were quite good for Stephen Harper. Despite his party slipping marginally nationwide, his own numbers were up by five points to 28% on "vision for Canada", six points to 29% on trust, and 10 points to 37% on competence. That gave him an overall score of 93.4 points on Nanos's Leadership Index (just the sum total of the percentages on the three qualities), a gain of 20.7 points.

Thomas Mulcair was up 1.2 points to 48 on the Leadership Index, picking up two points on trust (18%), holding steady on competence (13%), but losing one point on vision (17%).

Bob Rae was down 3.4 points on the index to 38.1, and was followed by Elizabeth May at 21.1 (+5.7) and Daniel Paillé at 10.1 (+3.1).

Paillé's numbers in Quebec are problematic for the Bloc Québécois. He trails Harper, Mulcair, and Rae on all three qualities by significant margins. Only 6% of Quebecers consider him the most trustworthy and only 3% think he is the most competent and has the best vision. Mulcair, by contrast, managed 40%, 30%, and 35% on those three factors. What this suggests is that Daniel Paillé is either a complete unknown or a drag on the Bloc's numbers (considering his low visibility, 'unknown' is a safer bet). Gilles Duceppe always did much better in these Nanos polls, and if the Bloc can't improve its leader's reputation they will have no chance of growing beyond their current base.

These two polls tell different stories. Harris-Decima puts the Conservatives firmly in the driver's seat, while Nanos shows the same close race between the two main parties. Conservatives can delight in the seven point lead or the improving personal numbers for their leader. New Democrats can point to their continued resilience in Nanos's poll, while Liberals can rejoice that they are at 24% in Quebec. Even the Bloc can be happy with Harris-Decima's numbers, and the Greens are looking good with 12%-13% in British Columbia.

But other polls haven't been so positive for the Liberals, or so negative for the New Democrats in Quebec. And while the results of the Harris-Decima and Nanos polls are within each's margin of error, the two stories they tell cannot both be true. Either the Tories are comfortably leading or they are not. Until other polls emerge to tell us which is the case, partisans of every stripe have something to gloat over.

Three federal polls, 2.5 NDP leads

Three federals polls have been released over the last few days, all showing the New Democrats narrowly ahead or tied with the Conservatives. Let's go through them one-by-one.

Harris-Decima was last in the field Apr. 26-May 6, and since then the New Democrats have slipped two points to 32%. The Conservatives are up one to 31% while the Liberals are up three to 23%.

The Greens trail with 7% and the Bloc Québécois is at 5% nationally.

The gap is just as narrow between the NDP and Tories among men and women, with the NDP holding a three point advantage among females and the Conservatives holding a two point edge among males.

The NDP leads in British Columbia (-3), Quebec (-2), and Atlantic Canada (-8) with 36%, and is running second in Ontario with 32% (+1), the Prairies with 30% (-9), and Alberta with 16% (-1).

The Conservatives lead in Alberta with 62% (+7), the Prairies with 47% (+4), and Ontario with 33% (+1). They are trailing in second in British Columbia with 33% (+1).

The Liberals are second in Atlantic Canada with 35% (+5), while the Bloc is second in Quebec with 21% (-6).

The narrow gaps in British Columbia and Ontario are important in this poll, as they are the main drivers behind the narrow gap nationwide.

Ipsos-Reid was last in the field May 8-10, and since then the NDP is up three points to 38%, putting them ahead of the Conservatives. The Tories are down two points to 35%, while the Liberals are down one to 18%.

The Bloc has 6% nationally while the Others has 4%. Ipsos-Reid did not separate the Greens from the Others in this survey.

It is worth noting that this poll was conducted online by Ipsos-Reid, while their previous poll had been a hybrid telephone and Internet poll. The methodological difference could be playing a role in the shifts in support between this poll and their last one.

It is also worth noting that the NDP's lead may be somewhat illusory, as it might not turnout in a real election. The Conservatives hold the lead among those aged 35 years or older (those most likely to vote), with 40% to the NDP's 35%.

Among Canadians born in this country, the NDP holds a narrow two point lead with 38% to the Conservatives' 36%. Among foreign-born Canadians, however, the NDP is far ahead: 36% to 30% for the Liberals and 28% for the Conservatives.

The NDP leads in this poll in Ontario (+5) and Quebec (-5) with 40%, and are also ahead in Atlantic Canada with 38% (+11). They trail in second with 43% in the Prairies (+6), 35% in British Columbia (+2), and 24% in Alberta (+5).

The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta with 67% (+4), the Prairies with 45% (-4), and British Columbia with 37% (-14). They are second in Ontario with 34% (-2), while the Liberals are second in Atlantic Canada with 30% (-5) and the Bloc is runner-up in Quebec with 26% (+3).

The big NDP lead in Ontario is the stand-out regional result from this poll, but it has yet to be repeated anywhere else.

Abacus was last in the field on May 15-16, and since then the Conservatives have dropped two points to 35%, putting them in a tie with the steady NDP. The Liberals are up three points to 20%, while the Greens are at 6% and the Bloc is at 5%.

Abacus puts the NDP ahead in Quebec with 43%, up two points, and in British Columbia with 39%, also up two. They are in second in the Prairies with 39% (+11), Ontario with 31% (-4), and Alberta with 25% (+6).

The Conservatives lead in Alberta (61%, -7), the Prairies (53%, -2), and Ontario (37%, -1). They are tied for the lead in Atlantic Canada at 30% (+3) with the Liberals, and are second in British Columbia with 38% (-2).

The Liberals dropped one point to 30% to tie for the lead in that region, while the Bloc is second in Quebec with 22% (-1).

In terms of seats, all of these polls give the Conservatives a plurality. They also give the NDP and the Liberals a combined majority, if they were inclined to work together.

The best poll for the Conservatives is Abacus Data's, as it would deliver 140 seats to 113 for the NDP and 50 for the Liberals. The Bloc would win four and the Greens one. The Conservatives bank on strong performances in the West to hold on to the lead in seats, while the NDP still struggles in Ontario.

The best poll for the New Democrats is Ipsos-Reid's. Their numbers award them 131 seats to 132 for the Conservatives, 37 for the Liberals, seven for the Bloc, and one for the Greens. Here, it is the NDP's stellar result in Ontario that makes the difference, but they would need to be doing better in British Columbia in order to come out on top.

And the best poll for the Liberals is Harris-Decima's, as it gives them 69 seats to 111 for the NDP and 123 for the Conservatives (the remaining five going to the Bloc and Greens). Strong numbers in Atlantic Canada and Ontario give the Liberals most of their seats in this poll.

But that brings us to the Liberal leadership race. Abacus surveyed whether Canadians had a favourable or unfavourable impression of some of the likely (and not so likely) candidates, finding that Justin Trudeau is head and shoulders above the rest: 50% favourable to 28% unfavourable and only 22% unsure.

Next on the list was Marc Garneau, with a split of 33% to 23%. But 44% were unsure, indicating that many Canadians know little about him. That is also the case for two other likely candidates, Gerard Kennedy (62% unsure) and Dominic Leblanc (70% unsure). For what it is worth, neither had positive scores: Kennedy had 18% favourable to 20% unfavourable, while Leblanc split 14% to 16%.

Among Liberal supporters, though, they had better splits: 29% to 16% for Kennedy and 24% to 12% for Leblanc. Garneau's was even better at 46% to 14%, but Trudeau was, again, well ahead of the pack with a favourability rating of 70% among Liberal supporters, to only 15% unfavourable.

Put Trudeau at the helm of the Liberal Party, and their fortunes improve. They would take 32% of the vote, narrowly behind the Conservatives, who would be at 33% support. The NDP would sink to only 24%, suggesting that their support is remarkably soft.

In terms of seats, the Tories would still come out on top with 131. The Liberals would win 99, however, with 74 going to the NDP. Again, the Liberals and NDP could combine for a majority, though in this case it would be the Liberals calling the shots.

But there is plenty of time yet for Trudeau not to run, to lose if he does run, or to whittle his support down between now and 2015. Nevertheless, this is another demonstration of what Trudeau would do for the Liberal Party. Far from writing them off, he would entice Canadians to give them another look. The fate of the Liberals would then depend on what he would do with that attention.

NDP leads, could win plurality of seats

After last week's teaser, Harris-Decima has completed and released the full results of their regular two-week survey. It increases the NDP lead by one (the last week must have been a good one for them) and points to the New Democrats being capable - for the first time, I believe - of winning the most seats in the House all on their own.

Since this poll incorporates the data from Harris-Decima's release last week, it is more instructive to compare the results to their last full two-week survey of Mar. 22 to Apr. 2.

The New Democrats are up two points since then to 34%, while the Conservatives have dropped four points to 30%.

The Liberals are up one to 20%, while the Greens are unchanged at 8% support.

As you can see, the weighted averages of all polls now give the New Democrats an outright lead of 33.4% to 32.4% for the Conservatives.

Harris-Decima shows a remarkably close race in Ontario, with the three parties virtually tied. The Tories are down nine points since the end of March and beginning of April to only 32%, trailed closely by the NDP at 31% (+5) and the Liberals at 28% (+4).

Things are stable in Quebec, with the NDP down one point to 38% and the Bloc Québécois up three points to 27%. The Liberals are unchanged at 14%, while the Conservatives are down two to 12%.

The NDP leads in British Columbia with 39% (-5) and Atlantic Canada with 44% (+8), while they trail in second with 39% (+5) in the Prairies and 17% (-2) in Alberta.

The Conservatives are ahead in Alberta (55%, +1) and the Prairies (43%, -2), and are second in British Columbia with 32% (+2). The Liberals hold second in Atlantic Canada with 30% support, unchanged.

The seat projection gives the New Democrats the plurality of seats for, if I am not mistaken, the first time here on ThreeHundredEight. It is likely the first time since at least the late 1980s, in that brief period where Ed Broadbent was on top.

With Harris-Decima's numbers, the New Democrats would win 128 seats, with the Conservatives winning 112 and the Liberals 58. The Bloc Québécois would win nine seats and the Greens one.

The NDP wins 17 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, 11 in the Prairies, 27 in Ontario, 55 in Quebec, 16 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North. In the 338-seat House, they would likely win 137 seats (a decrease in share from 41.6% to 40.5%).

The Conservatives win 15 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 16 in the Prairies, 47 in Ontario, four in Quebec, two in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North. In the expanded House, their share would likely increase from 36.4% of all seats to 37.9%, or 128.

The Liberals win three seats in British Columbia, one in the Prairies, 32 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the North. They would likely win 62 seats with the new boundaries.

Harris-Decima lays out the path to a Mulcair victory - the NDP continuing its dominance of Quebec and winning British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, while increasing their representation in the Prairies and Ontario. But the New Democrats actually need the Liberals in Ontario, as in this case it is that party that unseats a lot of Conservatives and gives the plurality of seats nationwide to the NDP.

The Conservatives are certainly in trouble if the race in Ontario becomes as close as this. They have faltered greatly in Atlantic Canada to the benefit of the NDP, and are trailing in British Columbia in almost every poll. That is a somewhat varied clientele for them to have to win back, especially when you add Saskatchewan to the mix.

But has Thomas Mulcair's honeymoon hit its peak? Have Stephen Harper's troubles caused his party to hit rock-bottom, and the only way to go now is up? Or is this what we can expect for the next three years, the two parties vying for top spot in the mid-30s, much like the Liberals and Conservatives did for most of the minority era? Interesting times.

NDP leads Conservatives by three

A new survey by Harris-Decima for The Canadian Press puts the New Democrats three points up on the Conservatives, making this the fourth of the last eight polls putting the Tories and NDP neck-and-neck or giving the New Democrats the lead.

Unfortunately, Harris-Decima will not be releasing any of the regional results outside of Ontario and Quebec.

Nationally, however, the New Democrats are up one point from Harris-Decima's Mar. 22-Apr. 2 poll and now lead with 33% support. The Conservatives are down four points to 30%.

Though this puts the lead well within the margin of error, a three point edge is nevertheless a strong indicator that the NDP is very likely in front.

The Liberals are up one point to 20%, while the Greens are unchanged at 8% support. The Bloc Québécois has 7% at the national level.

The race is a very close one in Ontario, where the Conservatives have dropped a statistically significant eight points to reach 33%, only two points up on the NDP (themselves up by five points). The Liberals have gained three points and have 27% support, while the Greens are at 7%.

In Quebec, the New Democrats are unchanged at 39% support while the Bloc Québécois is up five points to 29%. The Liberals are steady at 14% while the Conservatives are down four points to only 10% support.

The Bloc number is an interesting one. Since Thomas Mulcair became leader of the NDP, the Bloc's support has been registered at anywhere between 16% and 29%. On the one hand, the Bloc is in serious danger of being dealt a final death blow, on the other hand they are in a decent position. During the NDP interregnum, the Bloc's support picked up and the polls were in general agreement. But before the NDP dropped in Quebec, we were having the same problem in judging the Bloc's support. It would appear that we are returning to that uncertainty.

It is worth noting that with this Harris-Decima poll, the weighted federal poll averages (at the top of this page) now put the Conservatives and the New Democrats dead even at 33% apiece.

Though Harris-Decima has opted not to release all of their information (full transparency is always best, but it is up to them and their media partners in the end), it is still possible to do a rough seat projection by applying the national swing from the 2011 election to the mystery provinces.

UPDATE: Harris-Decima tells me that they decided not to release the regional data for anything other than Ontario and Quebec because of small sample sizes. Harris-Decima normally conducts polling over two-week periods with samples of 2,000, but in this particular case they only did a poll of 1,000. I am told that they will return to their usual larger polls with more detailed breakdowns next time.

Although it is possible that the actual results of the Harris-Decima poll, say, give the NDP a big lead in British Columbia that would change things to a significant degree, with a more even-keeled application of the shifts in support from the last election the seat projection for this poll demonstrates the problem the New Democrats have with vote efficiency.

Though leading by three points, this poll would deliver only 113 seats to the New Democrats and 128 to the Conservatives, with the Liberals at 57, the Bloc Québécois winning nine, and the Greens holding one.

The problem is, as always, Ontario and the West. The Conservatives' big advantage in Alberta and the Prairies is made up for by the NDP's sweeping of Quebec, but Ontario is a thorn in the NDP's side. They need to have a significant lead over the Conservatives in order to take a big chunk of the seats.

Instead, the Conservatives win 50 seats in Ontario with this poll and three in Quebec, with 75 seats being won in the rest of the country (where we do not know the real results of Harris-Decima's poll).

The New Democrats win 27 seats in Ontario and 56 in Quebec, with the remaining 30 being won in the rest of the country.

The Liberals win 29 seats in Ontario, seven in Quebec, and 21 in the rest of the country.

In a 338-seat House, the Conservatives likely take 144 to 121 for the NDP and 62 for the Liberals. This increases the share of seats the Conservatives hold.

Nevertheless, the New Democrats would likely emerge from these results leading a government, as they could potentially combine with the Liberals for a majority. Perhaps that is enough for the NDP, and as they would have won the popular vote in this hypothetical election their legitimacy would be difficult to question.

Though Ontario is still problematic for the NDP, trailing by two points is the best result I have for them in my records going back to the beginning of 2010 (and undoubtedly long before that as well). If other polls confirm that the Conservatives and New Democrats are running neck-and-neck in this battleground province, then we can say that the NDP is heading in the right direction.

But they need more than a neck-and-neck race if they are to definitively topple the Conservatives. Though it is quite possible that the New Democrats could out-perform expectations in Ontario if they do start getting close to the Tories, the numbers are hard to find for the kind of swing they need. At least eight more seats in Ontario would need to swing from the Conservatives to the NDP with these numbers, and though I can identify eight potential swing seats for the NDP in Ontario over-and-above the projected results, I can only identify eight seats and they start to push the boundaries of plausibility. The party still has a long way to go.

Neck-and-neck federal race

Two federal polls were released last week showing a very tight race between the governing Conservatives and the opposition New Democrats. While the two surveys differ on what kind of momentum the Tories have, both show that the NDP is making significant gains, primarily at the expense of the Liberal Party.

The Léger poll is the most recent, and is also the most striking. It places the New Democrats ahead of the Conservatives with 33% to 32%, a gain of seven points for the NDP since Léger's last national survey of Feb. 28-Mar. 5. The Tories, meanwhile, are down two points.

The Liberals slip five points to 19%, back to where they were in May 2011. The Greens are up one to 8% while the Bloc Québécois is down one to 7%.

The New Democrats lead in Atlantic Canada with 49% (+18), Quebec with 47% (+20), and British Columbia with 34% (unchanged). They are running second in the Prairies and Ontario with 26% support in each (a loss of seven points in the Prairies and a gain of three in Ontario).

The Conservatives lead in Alberta with 61% (+2), the Prairies with 49% (+8), and Ontario with 39% (unchanged). They place second in British Columbia with 30%, a drop of six points since late February/early March.

The Liberals are second in Atlantic Canada with 20% (-17) and in Alberta with 17% (+5), while the Bloc Québécois is second in Quebec with 29% support, a loss of two points.

Atlantic Canada has huge variations in this survey, so the region's results can probably be discounted. The big NDP leap in Quebec is not so unusual, however, as other polls have indicated that the NDP has made a major rebound in Quebec with Thomas Mulcair as leader. That the NDP has supplanted the Liberals as runner-up in Ontario is good news for the party, as they need to make more gains there. Overall, however, the Conservatives are in a strong position thanks to their big leads in Alberta and Ontario.

Those big leads were echoed in Harris-Decima's older poll, taken between Mar. 22 and Apr. 2. Part of the survey was conducted before the Mar. 24 NDP leadership convention, but probably not enough to have skewed the results very much.

Harris-Decima keeps the Tories in the lead with 34%, a gain of three points since their previous poll of Mar. 8-19. The New Democrats are up four points to 32%, while the Liberals are down five points to 19% support.

The Greens are up one to 8% while the Bloc is down two to 6%.

There are fewer unusual results in this Harris-Decima poll, at least in terms of the variations since their last survey. Both Harris-Decima and Léger agree on the situation in Ontario as well as in Quebec, while giving the NDP the lead in B.C. and on the East Coast.

But the Conservatives lead in Alberta with 54% (-4), the Prairies with 45% (-2), and Ontario with 41% (+8). They are trailing the NDP in British Columbia (30%, -3) and Atlantic Canada (also 30%, +4).

The New Democrats lead in British Columbia with 44% (+9), Quebec with 39% (+13), and Atlantic Canada with 36% (+2). They place second to the Conservatives in the Prairies (34%, +3), Ontario (26%, -3), and Alberta (19%, +6).

The Liberals are only tied for second in Atlantic Canada with 30%, a loss of three points, while the Bloc is down 10 points in Quebec to 24%.

Both of these polls would result in a similar situation in the House of Commons: the Conservatives with a plurality of seats but the NDP and Liberals able to combine for a majority.

With Harris-Decima's narrow Conservative lead, the Tories take 147 seats to 119 for the NDP, 36 for the Liberals, five for the Bloc, and one for the Greens.

With Léger's narrow NDP lead, the Conservatives take 134 seats, the NDP 132, the Liberals 34, the Bloc seven, and the Greens one.

Regionally (Léger first, Harris-Decima second), the Conservatives win 14/12 seats in British Columbia, 27/27 in Alberta, 23/19 in the Prairies, 67/73 in Ontario, 1/5 in Quebec, 1/10 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 15/21 seats in British Columbia, 1/1 in Alberta, 2/7 in the Prairies, 23/22 in Ontario, 66/58 in Quebec, 24/9 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win 6/2 seats in British Columbia, 3/2 in the Praires, 16/11 in Ontario, 1/7 in Quebec, 7/13 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

If we take the best and worst regional results for each party, we get a range of between 128 and 153 seats for the Conservatives on these numbers, with the New Democrats sitting between 108 and 143 seats. The Liberal range is between 24 and 46 seats - even a best-case-scenario results in only a minor gain of seats for the Liberals.

The New Democrats are only slightly above the 31% the party achieved under Jack Layton in May 2011, but the extra point or two makes all the difference, particularly when the Tories are down six to nine points. The NDP is in a strong position on the two coasts and looks capable of keeping (or even increasing) their representation in Quebec. But the Conservatives still have the advantage thanks to their wide lead in Ontario and the clump of seats they hold claim to between B.C. and Manitoba. Until the NDP can start to whittle away the Tory holdings in the West and in Ontario, they will have no hope of toppling the Conservatives without the help of the Liberal Party.

Two more federal polls, Conservatives lead by three or eight

After the headline-grabbing poll from Environics yesterday, Angus-Reid and Harris-Decima submitted their entries in order to further muddy the waters. Both show a Conservative lead, but the size of it varies considerably. They both show the New Democrats at just under 30% support, which seems to be the consensus across every poll, but their position in Quebec remains uncertain.

Let's start with the poll from Angus-Reid, which is the most recent. The firm was last in the field 20-21 January and since then the Conservatives have slipped two points to 37% support.

The New Democrats trail eight points behind with 29%, up one point since the January survey.

The Liberals are down one to 21% while the Bloc Québécois is up three points to 8%. The Greens have dropped one point to 4%.

The Conservatives lead in every region except Quebec: 40% in Ontario (-2), 43% in British Columbia (+9), 56% in Alberta (-9), 36% in Atlantic Canada (+6), and 51% in the Prairies (-21).

The New Democrats lead in Quebec with 33%, unchanged from the January poll. They are running second in British Columbia (33%, -7), Alberta (25%, +8), Atlantic Canada (34%, -4), and the Prairies (32%, +12).

The Liberals placed second in Ontario with 30%, an increase of one point, while the Bloc Québécois is second in Quebec with 31%, a gain of eight points.

It is interesting to note that, despite the Conservatives leading and only slipping slightly, Stephen Harper's personal numbers have taken a tumble: 37% of respondents said their opinion of him has worsened. That is more than double the 18% who said the same of Bob Rae.

The Angus-Reid survey also included some NDP leadership numbers, in terms of which candidate would make Canadians more likely to vote for the NDP. No surprises in the results: Thomas Mulcair got 12% while Brian Topp and Peggy Nash placed second with 4%. The rest of the candidates were slightly behind, but we're talking margin of error differences.

Regionally, Atlantic Canadians appear giddy to vote for the NDP no matter which candidate wins, as everyone but Mulcair had their best result in that region. Mulcair had his best result in Quebec (34%), while Topp had his second best in the Prairies (8%), Nash in Alberta (5%), Paul Dewar in the Prairies (5%), and Nathan Cullen in British Columbia (7%).

Now to the Harris-Decima poll, which was in the field the day before Angus-Reid, but also the 11 days before that. Harris-Decima was last in the field 12-22 January, so at about the same time as Angus-Reid's previous poll.

Since Harris-Decima's last survey, the Conservatives have dropped one point to 31%. They hold a lead of three points over the NDP, down one point to 28%. The Liberals are down one point to 24%, while the Bloc Québécois is up three to 8%. The Greens are unchanged at 7%.

The Conservatives lead in Ontario with 33% (-2), Alberta with 58% (-3), and the Prairies with 47% (+12). They are running second in British Columbia (33%, +3).

The New Democrats lead in British Columbia with 35% (-7) and Atlantic Canada with 34% (+7), and trail in second in Quebec (26%, -6) and the Prairies (31%, -4).

The Liberals are second in Ontario with 30% (-4), Alberta with 14% (-3), and Atlantic Canada with 33% (-1). The Bloc Québécois leads in Quebec with 34%, a gain of 12 points.

These are not exactly consistent results. Harris-Decima is more in line with Environics's poll, while Angus-Reid is more in line with the other polls that have been out the last two weeks. What to make of it?

The field days are quite different, in addition to the methodologies employed. Both show general stability and the truth likely lies somewhere in between their results, but at this stage opinion seems to be still somewhat foggy with the next election so far away and the NDP leadership campaign waiting to come to a close. It seems safe to conclude, however, that the NDP and Conservatives are probably not tied after all.

The differences make us search for consistencies. Both Angus-Reid and Harris-Decima were in the field around the same time in their last two surveys, giving us the ability to look at some trends. Are there any?

Nationally, we see the Conservatives and the Liberals both taking a step backwards. This seems consistent with some other polls, where we have seen the Liberals moving away from the mid-20s and the Conservatives from the high-30s.

Both polls show the Conservatives losing ground in Ontario and Alberta, while gaining in British Columbia. The New Democrats have lost since January in both polls in British Columbia, but have gained in Alberta. The Liberals are down in both polls in Alberta and Atlantic Canada, while the Bloc Québécois is up significantly in Quebec. That seems to be the main point of agreement across every poll.

More generally, they both show relatively close races in British Columbia (between the Tories and the NDP) and Atlantic Canada (between all three parties). They both show the NDP competitive, but still well behind, the Tories in the Prairies. And they all show the NDP running third in Ontario, and in a neck-and-neck race with the Bloc in Quebec. That last bit of agreement has the most important implications.

The seat projection for these two polls shows why. One would expect the Harris-Decima poll, with the narrow margin between the NDP and the Tories, to have the best result for the Official Opposition. But no - trailing the Bloc by eight points in Quebec means the NDP's ranks in the province are decimated. Holding steady at the national level is all well and good, but if it is the result of small gains in the rest of the country making up for losses in Quebec, the NDP just doesn't win the seats required to make good the drop in the province.

Angus-Reid's results would give the Conservatives 142 seats, the New Democrats 83, the Liberals 58, and the Bloc Québécois 25. The Greens were too weak in British Columbia to re-elect Elizabeth May.

Harris-Decima's results would give the Conservatives 127 seats, the New Democrats 67, the Liberals 67, the Bloc Québécois 46, and the Greens one.

Quite a difference in results. Angus-Reid keeps the NDP in the Official Opposition role but unable to combine with the Liberals to out-number the Tories. Harris-Decima puts the NDP's status in question, while giving the Liberals and New Democrats enough seats to out-vote the Conservatives. But in both cases, the support of the Bloc Québécois would be needed for any working coalition.

The regional breakdown is as follows, with Angus-Reid first and Harris-Decima second:

Conservatives win 21/17 seats in British Columbia, 26/27 in Alberta, 20/19 in the Prairies, 58/46 in Ontario, 8/4 in Quebec, 8/13 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north. Their 338-seat total would be 159/142.

The New Democrats win 11/13 seats in British Columbia, 2/1 in Alberta, 7/6 in the Prairies, 22/26 in Ontario, 32/12 in Quebec, eight in Atlantic Canada and one in the north. On the 338-seat map, the totals would be 89/73.

The Liberals win 4/5 seats in British Columbia, 1/3 in the Prairies, 26/34 in Ontario, 10/13 in Quebec, 16/11 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north. In the expanded House, they win 64/74.

If we take the best and worst regional results for the parties in these polls, we get an idea of a high and low range: 121 to 148 seats for the Conservatives, 61 to 89 seats for the New Democrats, and 53 to 72 seats for the Liberals.

In this context, it is difficult to see the Harris-Decima poll as a positive one for the New Democrats. They would probably be better off with the results from Angus-Reid, despite the wide gap between themselves and the governing Conservatives.

The polls certainly do not provide a lot of clarity as to what is going on. This is why I intend to start tracking the polls and maintaining an on-going vote aggregation (a more detailed version of my monthly averages), for the sole reason of making some sense of the numbers. I hope to have this up and running soon.

I had promised an update to the NDP endorsement rankings, but the only new endorsements to emerge since Wednesday were the six Nova Scotia MLAs plumping for Thomas Mulcair. I'll instead provide an updated tally tomorrow morning, when I begin my live-blogging (though here from home) of the NDP leadership convention, starting at around 9:30 AM. I intend to have plenty of charts and numbers to give you throughout the day as we track what is going on in Toronto.

Liberals up, NDP steady, Tories down

Because the next election is more than three years away, four federal polls were released this week amid the heightened tension that the upcoming vote in 45 months has caused.

In all seriousness, though, this spate of new polls does give us a good idea of where Canadians stand as the 2012 political year starts to get going. The implications of these polls are, of course, relatively minor. But getting a bead on the mindset of Canadians is never a meaningless exercise.

Take a look at my article today on The Huffington Post Canada website here for a shorter overview of these polls, what trends they are showing, and what that might mean.

As we rarely get the chance to look at a series of polls taken over so short a time outside of an election campaign, let's examine these four federal surveys (by Abacus Data, Angus-Reid, Harris-Decima, and CROP) side-by-side.

The three Canada-wide polls were taken between January 12 and 22, surveying a total of more than 4,000 Canadians. The dates of the three polls all overlap with one another, except Abacus and Angus. As they both use online panels, that is perhaps a good thing.

The three polls run the gamut of scenarios. Angus-Reid gives the Conservatives an 11-point lead, with 39% to the NDP's 28%, while Harris-Decima gives them only a three-point lead, with 32% for the Conservatives and 29% for the New Democrats.

Since Abacus's last poll in early December, the Conservatives have dropped three points to 37%. The NDP has also dropped three points to 28%, while the Liberals are up three points to 21%. Angus-Reid was last in the field in September, and since then the Conservatives are unchanged, the NDP is down one, and the Liberals are up one to 22%.

Harris-Decima has the Tories down two since their early December report, while the NDP is up one and the Liberals are up three.

Though the Liberals don't exactly have the momentum of a runaway freight train ("Why are you so popular?"), this is a positive trend across the board in their favour. The New Democrats appear to be steady, while the Conservatives appear to be slipping.

British Columbia, however, is far less clear. The Conservatives ranged between 30% and 47% in the three polls, putting them either 12 points behind the NDP or 26 points ahead. This is what smaller samples can do.

The New Democrats ranged between 21% and 42%, while the Liberals ranged between 13% and 18%. Angus-Reid has the NDP up 10 points and the Conservatives down nine since August, while Abacus has the Conservatives up one, the NDP down 18, and the Liberals up 11 since December. Harris-Decima also shows wide variation, with the NDP up 11 points and the Conservatives down seven. That is a little too wild to conclude anything definitive, but we can certainly say that the race in British Columbia appears to be solely between the Conservatives and the New Democrats.

Alberta is a little more cut-and-dry, as usual. The Conservatives lead by between 44 and 57 points, with between 61% and 72% support. The New Democrats stand between 10% and 17% while the Liberals have between 11% and 17% support. This is where it gets a little muddier. Most polls have shown the NDP solidly in second in Alberta, but Harris-Decima shows the Liberals in second. Compared to everything else we've seen, that makes it a small outlier.

The Prairies pose another problem, but this is not new. Abacus Data shows the usual Conservative lead and relatively strong NDP showing, while Angus-Reid gives the Prairies to the Tories in a walk and Harris-Decima has a neck-and-neck race. Most recent polls have been between the results of Abacus and Harris-Decima, so we have to consider Angus-Reid to be the outsider on this one.

These are important differences. Angus-Reid would give most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba to the Conservatives, while Harris-Decima would actually split the provinces between the NDP and the Tories. This is one of the reasons why I expect Manitoba and particularly Saskatchewan to be more important in 2015 than they have been in a long time.

Ontario is slightly more in line. The Conservatives range between 35% and 42%, the Liberals stand between 29% and 34%, and the NDP between 24% and 26%. This generally jives with what other polls have been showing: the New Democrats are holding on to their gains while the Liberals have eaten into the Conservative lead. This is the major reason why the Liberals have been stronger in recent months.

Since August, Angus-Reid has the Conservatives unchanged at 42%, while the Liberals are up two and the NDP is down two. Since December, Abacus has the Conservatives down five while Harris-Decima has them down one. The Liberals are up four points according to Abacus and three points according to Harris-Decima, while Abacus has the NDP down three and Harris-Decima has them down one. In other words, the trends point to the Conservatives and (to a lesser extent) the NDP slipping in Ontario to the benefit of the Liberal Party.

We have a richer set of data in Quebec as CROP also reported this week with a survey of 1,000 Quebecers, at least twice as many as any other poll in the field. CROP also has the most up-to-date data, as it was in the field between January 19 and 23, overlapping with all three other polls but also stretching later than all of them.

Across the board, the New Democrats are leading with between 29% and 37%. Optimists might point to Abacus's 37% result, but the three other polls are far more in line with what the general trend has been since December.

The Bloc Québécois holds second in three of the four polls with between 21% and 23% support, a very tight grouping. The Conservatives have between 17% and 24% support, while the Liberals are also tightly grouped at between 17% and 19%.

In what direction the NDP is heading is difficult to say. Since August, Angus-Reid has the party down seven points. CROP also has them down seven points since their mid-December survey. But Abacus Data has them up one point since December while Harris-Decima has them up six. It would appear that the most likely situation is that the NDP is holding generally steady in the mid-to-low 30s.

The Bloc, however, seems to be slipping. Though Angus-Reid has them up two points since August, the three others that last reported in December have them either holding steady (CROP) or dropping (four points according to Harris-Decima, five according to Abacus). In any case, it does not seem that the Bloc is making any new gains, contrary to what seemed to have been the case in December.

The Conservatives seem to be holding, with no changes larger than two points since December (positive in the case of Harris-Decima and CROP, negative according to Abacus), while the Liberals have made three to four point gains in CROP and Abacus's polling. Harris-Decima has them down one, however.

This all seems to point to a general status quo in Quebec. That is good news for everyone but the Bloc, as the NDP slide seems to have stopped and both the Conservatives and Liberals are polling above the last election's result.

Finally, in Atlantic Canada the New Democrats lead by good margins in two of the three polls, and overall average between 27% and 42%. The Conservatives range between 26% and 30%, while the Liberals stand somewhere between 21% and 34%. With its small sample sizes and tricky three-way race, it is difficult to discern any real trend here. But the NDP has being doing well in the area recently.

Both Abacus Data and Angus-Reid see generally similar situations - a large Conservative minority. Abacus Data's polling would result in 147 Conservatives, 96 New Democrats, 60 Liberals, four Bloc seats, and one Green, using the current 308-seat boundaries. Angus-Reid's numbers would give 150 Conservatives, 101 New Democrats, 50 Liberals, six Bloc MPs, and one Green.

Harris-Decima, on the other hand, shows an extremely weak Conservative minority: 118 Conservative seats, 106 New Democrats, 77 Liberals, six Bloc, and one Green. Undoubtedly, this Conservative government would not last very long.

Broken down regionally, these three polls would give the Conservatives between 11 and 26 seats in British Columbia, with the New Democrats winning between four and 20 and the Liberals between four and five. The Greens win one seat in each of these three polls.

In Alberta, the Conservatives range between 27 and 28 seats, while the New Democrats could win one or none.

The Conservatives win between 12 and 26 seats in the Prairies, with the New Democrats winning between two and 11 and the Liberals between none and five.

In Ontario, the Conservatives range between 48 and 64 seats, the Liberals between 20 and 37 seats, and the NDP between 21 and 22 seats.

In Quebec, the New Democrats range between 39 and 52 seats, the Conservatives between eight and 16 seats, the Liberals between 11 and 13 seats, and the Bloc between four and seven.

And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals range between nine and 17 seats, the New Democrats between five and 14 seats, and the Conservatives between nine and ten seats.

Taken altogether, the Conservatives range between 116 and 171 seats. This means they could win a majority government with these polls, or could even be replaced by the New Democrats, who range between 72 and 121 seats. I only see a 9% chance of an NDP victory, however.

The Liberals range between 45 and 78 seats, meaning they could potentially form the Official Opposition, while the Bloc ranges between four and seven seats. That keeps them out of official party status.

So what do all of these polls tell us? Generally speaking, Canadians haven't moved too much from where they were in May 2011. If they have moved, outside of Quebec it has been from the Conservatives to the Liberals while inside Quebec it has been from the New Democrats to either the Liberals or the Conservatives. Though it is somewhat more complicated than that, as we seem to have the NDP making gains in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada as well, this is what we're seeing.

But overall, the Liberals and NDP can take the most from these polls. The Liberals are showing signs of life, indicating that a future recovery is possible. The New Democrats are showing staying power, indicating that the next leader will not have to play catch-up, at least outside of Quebec. Of course, the Conservatives are still in control. But they have a majority government and are looking less towards 2015 than the other parties. There is nothing to worry them just yet, but the situations in British Columbia, the Prairies, and Ontario point to the potential for problems when Canadians next cast their ballots.

NDP support collapses in Quebec without Layton - or does it?

With an election years away, polls provide a reflection of what Canadians are thinking but have little bearing on what happens in the House of Commons. Unlike the seven years that preceded the May federal election, the country is not on the brink of a new election with every passing season.

But even with the next vote far beyond the horizon, a poll can have a real impact on the political landscape.

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

Check out the article for my thoughts on the implications of the poll, but before you do let's look at the numbers of this new Harris-Decima survey.

Their last poll was taken between October 27 and November 6, and there has been very little national change since then: the Conservatives are down two points to 34%, the New Democrats are down one point to 28%, and the Liberals are unchanged at 22%. All variations within the margin of error.

But in Ontario and Quebec some interesting things come out of this poll.

In Ontario, the Tories are down two to 36% and the Liberals are also down two to 31%, but the NDP is up six points to 27%. This gain is an important one because the party has lost so much support in Quebec.

There, the NDP is down 10 points to 26%, tied with the Bloc Québécois (up six points). The Liberals are up two to 20% and the Conservatives are down one to 17%. It's a very crowded field.

But is the NDP really down to 26%? Harris-Decima surveys 2,000 people over two weeks so the sample in Quebec is likely some 500 people, so not a horrible number. But CROP has a new poll out today maintaining the NDP at 36% - so is Harris-Decima just an outlier? I suppose we'll find out after a few more polls come out.

In British Columbia the Conservatives and Liberals are each up two points to 37% and 18% respectively, while the NDP is down five to 31%.

The Conservatives have rebounded in the Prairies with a ten point gain to 47%, while the NDP is down two to 34% and the Liberals are down five to 11%. Things have changed a lot less in Alberta, where the Conservatives have 63% (-3) and the NDP has 20% support (+2).

Finally, in Atlantic Canada the three-way race continues.

Now for something completely different - with these numbers we are looking at a very divided parliament, reminiscent of what we were familiar year with for most of the seven years before the last election.

The Conservatives win 138 seats, the New Democrats win 75, the Liberals win 65, the Bloc Québécois wins 29, and the Greens win one seat. The NDP remains the Official Opposition but the Liberals make big gains and the Bloc returns to prominence in Quebec.

The Conservatives win 18 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 20 in the Prairies, 50 in Ontario, 11 in Quebec, 11 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 13 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, seven in the Prairies, 24 in Ontario, 20 in Quebec, nine in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The Liberals win four seats in British Columbia, one in the Prairies, 32 in Ontario, 15 in Quebec, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

So, the most important change is, of course, in Quebec. The Bloc goes from four to 29 seats while the NDP goes from 59 to only 20. Even the Liberals make big gains, all in and around Montreal.

It is worth noting where the New Democrats make their retreat. They still win seats in western Quebec and a good deal of seats in the Montreal region and between Montreal and Quebec City (Mauricie, Estrie, Montérégie), but they are pushed completely out of eastern Quebec and keep only one seat in the Quebec City region. The Tories return to Quebec City in force and win a few seats in eastern Quebec, while the Bloc takes seats in every part of the province.

It makes for a messy political landscape in Quebec - Montreal is Liberal, the western half of Quebec is NDP, the eastern half is more Conservative, and the Bloc has seats here and there throughout.

Of course, it'll probably be completely different by the time 2015 rolls around. But it is interesting to see how quickly the political waters in Quebec have been muddied.

Keystone, Alberta, and the NDP

The NDP's concerns over the Keystone XL pipeline are not likely to make the party many new friends in Alberta. 

But are the New Democrats writing off the province, or speaking for an unrepresented portion of the population?

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

Alberta isn't the most exciting political battlefield in Canada - actually, it is probably the least. But with the New Democrats poised to be the main alternative in 2015 and with the party already occupying one seat in the province, Alberta could be a bit more interesting in four years' time.

Harris-Decima and Ipsos-Reid were the two polling firms to report so far in November, and their Alberta results overlap each other taking into account the margin of error. Though the Conservatives are, in these polls, somewhere between 58% and 66%, their lead is clear and the effect on their electability in its 28 (or, soon, 34) ridings is not changed either way.

But for the other parties it is pretty consistent. The New Democrats have around 19% support in Alberta while the Liberals are between 9% and 10%. Green support is harder to peg, but it is likely closer to Harris-Decima's result than Ipsos-Reid's.

It is interesting to note that prior to the 2011 federal election this was the sort of breakdown we often saw, but with the Liberals in the place of the NDP. They've swapped in Alberta, like they have done in several other parts of the country.

But what would it take for the New Democrats to win a second seat in Alberta in its current 28-seat make-up? Let's play around with the projection model to find out.

The Conservatives only took less than 50% support in two of the 27 seats they won, so the likelihood of some combination of opposition parties winning a big swathe of seats from the Tories in Alberta is very low. What needs to change?

Let's start from the average of these two polls (62% CPC, 19% NDP, 9.5% LPC, 8.5% GPC) and go from there. Let's first assume that the Tory vote is unassailable, and the NDP only takes from the Liberals and the Greens. By giving the NDP 0.5 points at a time each from the Liberals and the Greens, the second NDP seat becomes winnable at 24% for the NDP, with the Liberals at 7% and the Greens at 6%. The second seat is, of course, Edmonton East.

What about a third? Edmonton Centre becomes winnable for the NDP at 32% provincial support, pushing the Liberals to a bare 3% and the Greens to 2%. A fourth seat, Lethbridge, falls in the NDP column when the party reaches 35%, with the Conservatives still at 62% and the Liberals and Greens at 1.5% and 0.5% apiece.

But what if the NDP were able to take votes away from the Conservatives as well as the Liberals and the Greens? Let's bump NDP support up by one point at a time, taking 0.5 from the Conservatives, 0.3 from the Liberals, and 0.2 from the Greens.

With this incremental change, Edmonton East turns orange at 59% CPC, 23% NDP, 8.3% LPC, and 7.7% GPC. Edmonton Centre falls at 56% CPC, 29% NDP, and 6.5% apiece for the Greens and Liberals. The fourth seat, Lethbridge, goes NDP at 54.5% CPC, 32% NDP, 5.9% GPC, and 5.6% LPC.

So, it is plainly obvious how far we are from more than two seats voting anything but Conservative in Alberta. The new boundaries could change things, though, depending on how Edmonton's seats are re-distributed.

Two polls show NDP slipping in Quebec, Tories in Ontario

If an election were held today, the Conservatives would probably lose their majority in the House of Commons. But the New Democrats would not be much closer to replacing them.

Two polls released over the last few days by Ipsos-Reid and Harris-Decima show small shifts in support from the May 2 election, but not enough to completely overturn the results. A Conservative slip of between three and four points, however, puts them solidly in minority territory.
 
You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada website here.

The national results of these two polls are strikingly similar, a difference of no more than two points for any of the main parties. The regional results are slightly more different, so I invite you to check them out in the article and the reports on the Ipsos-Reid and Harris-Decima numbers.

Turning these polls into seats also doesn't make a huge difference, both putting the Conservatives in a minority. But there are enough changes around the margins to make them interesting.

In the Ipsos-Reid poll, the Conservatives would win 145 seats, with 102 going to the NDP and 55 to the Liberals. The Bloc Québécois would also win six seats.

In the Harris-Decima poll, the Conservatives win 133 seats, with 108 going to the NDP and 63 to the Liberals. The Bloc wins three and the Greens one.

If we take the best and worst results for each party in each region and combine them, we get some interesting seat ranges.

The Conservative best and worst scenarios out of these two polls is between 126 and 152 seats, so still outside of a majority. Regionally, their ranges are 17-21 in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 13-19 in the Prairies, 51-57 in Ontario, 7-10 in Quebec, and 10-17 in Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats could win between 95 and 115 seats with these two polls. Their regional ranges are 11-14 in British Columbia, one in Alberta, 6-10 in the Prairies, 18-24 in Ontario, 53-54 in Quebec, and 5-11 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberal range is between 42 and 76 seats, so a repeat of the 2008 election is possible. Their regional ranges are four in British Columbia, none in Alberta, 3-5 in the Prairies, 25-37 in Ontario, 5-12 in Quebec, and 4-17 in Atlantic Canada.

It is worth noting that in both the Ipsos-Reid and Harris-Decima scenarios the Liberals and NDP are able to command a majority of seats in the House on their own. It also worth noting how the NDP range spans only 20 seats, while that of the Tories spans 26 seats and that of the Liberals 34. The NDP seems a bit better placed to hold what they have.

Some interesting results, but the first person who comments that this doesn't matter as the next election is four years away loses.

NDP leadership race: Brian Topp or Thomas Mulcair?

Brian Topp or Thomas Mulcair?

The NDP leadership race may come down to that, but these sorts of things do not always turn out as expected.
In six months, the New Democratic Party will choose its next leader. As is often the case this early in a leadership race, identifying the likely winner is a mug’s game.

Brian Topp, the NDP’s president, is the only officially declared candidate, but Thomas Mulcair, one of two deputy leaders and the only NDP Quebec MP to have been elected prior to 2011, is almost certainly going to throw his hat in the ring as well. They are, at this stage, the frontrunners.

Mulcair is the NDP’s most well-known figure in Quebec and was an important part of the party’s success in that province. He has won three elections in his Montreal riding of Outremont, and was a cabinet minister in Jean Charest’s provincial Liberal government before entering federal politics.

Topp, however, seems to have the backing of the party brass. He recently received a high-profile endorsement from Ed Broadbent, former leader of the party and, before Jack Layton, their most successful. Fluently bilingual (and not just passably so), Topp can communicate with the NDP’s massive Quebec caucus and the party’s new supporters in the province and is only limited by his much lower profile in Quebec.

You can read the rest of the article at The Huffington Post Canada website here.

Five provinces with a combined population of 16.2 million people are heading to the polls in a matter of weeks, and no poll since Tuesday?

I know that we'll see some polls out of PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador before their campaigns end, but I'm shocked that there hasn't been anything out of Manitoba since June. The last poll had Tories and the NDP tied - tied! - and no one has ordered another poll to see what is going on. Come on, Manitoba! I know you have the Jets back, but focus!

Tim Hudak's hope for majority slipping in new polls

Ontario’s election has become a three-way horse race in a matter of weeks, with frontrunner Tim Hudak’s hope for a majority government slipping away on the eve of the campaign’s official launch.

Two recently released polls show that, while the Progressive Conservative leader still holds a lead over the governing Liberals, the race is tightening.

You can read the rest of the article, including individual projections for both this week's Angus-Reid and Forum Research polls, at The Huffington Post Canada website here.

On an unrelated note, I promised a seat projection for the Harris-Decima federal poll released earlier this week. The result is pretty interesting. But first, the poll itself.

Harris-Decima has both the Conservatives and New Democrats tied at 33%, with the Liberals trailing at 21%.

I could be mistaken, but this is probably the first poll since the Ed Broadbent years that has the NDP tied for first.

While 33% is a few ticks up from the 2011 election result and is within the margin of error of other recent polls, that the NDP is in first has more to do with the Conservatives dropping. They stand seven points below their election result, which is quite an extraordinary drop.

Of course, this poll was taken during a pretty emotional time. Unless Harris-Decima polls over the weekend, it was only in the field for two days before Jack Layton's death. It was then in the field throughout the week following his death. Whether these numbers will hold will be something to look at when Harris-Decima next reports.

The NDP leads in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada, in addition to Quebec. The most interesting race is in Ontario, where the three parties are within each other's margin of error.

The problem for the NDP in this poll is their weakness on the Prairies. We can excuse them for having trouble breaking through in Alberta, but the NDP can do better in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. If the party was up a little bit more, they would likely be able to win a plurality of seats, as more than a few ridings in Saskatchewan were relatively close Conservative-NDP races.

Also noteworthy is Quebec, where the Tories stand at 15%. Some other polls have put them comfortably in third or even in second, but it would appear the strength of the Conservatives in Quebec is still very fragile.

This would result in a very different House of Commons.

The Conservatives win 127 seats with this poll, the New Democrats 117, the Liberals 57, the Bloc Québécois four, and the Greens one.

Most significantly, the New Democrats and Liberals could combine for 174 seats - a majority larger even than Stephen Harper's current government.

But this sort of seat distribution would be quite unbalanced. While an NDP/Liberal government would hold 53% of the seats in British Columbia, 57% of the seats in Ontario, 63% of the seats in Atlantic Canada, and 89% of the seats in Quebec, it would hold only 9% of the seats in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.

But, of course, the current Conservative government holds only 7% of the seats in Quebec.

The Conservatives win one seat in the North, 14 seats in British Columbia, 27 in Alberta, 24 in the Prairies, 46 in Ontario, four in Quebec, and 11 in Atlantic Canada.

The New Democrats win one seat in the North, 16 in British Columbia, one in Alberta, three in the Prairies, 26 in Ontario, 60 in Quebec, and 12 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win one seat in the North, five in British Columbia, none in Alberta, one in the Prairies, 34 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, and nine in Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc wins four seats in Quebec and the Greens win one in British Columbia.

An interesting counter-factual, but 2015 is a long ways away.