Friday, March 18, 2016

New federal poll from Forum, Alberta poll from Insights West

Forum Research has a new federal poll out today, showing continuing strong numbers for the Liberals.

Insights West also has a new poll on the Alberta provincial scene, focusing on the 'unite-the-right' debate, and where supporters for each of the party think they are on the political spectrum.

Despite Donald Trump's wins, U.S. primaries far from over

The American presidential primaries have been playing out for six weeks — and they are not even close to being over.

That is because the outcome will remain uncertain for another three months — or even until July, when the Republican Party could have to hash things out on the convention floor in Cleveland, Ohio.

You can read the rest of this article on the U.S. primaries here.

Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party gains in 2 new polls

Two new polls suggest that the Saskatchewan Party's position is improving as the province's election campaign continues into its second week.

The CBC Saskatchewan Poll Tracker now pegs the Saskatchewan Party to hold the lead with 56.1 per cent support, a gain of just under three points since last week's update. The New Democrats have slipped about two points to 32.7 per cent, while the Liberals and Greens trail with 7.3 and 3.2 per cent support, respectively.

You can read the rest of this article on the Saskatchewan provincial election here.

The Pollcast: Breaking down the Manitoba election

Voters in Manitoba will be heading to the polls on April 19, as Premier Greg Selinger dissolved the legislature today.

But will he still be in the job on April 20?

You can listen to the podcast with guest Cameron MacIntosh, the CBC's senior report in Manitoba, here.

How embattled NDP Leader Tom Mulcair stacks up against his predecessors

The New Democrats' rise to Official Opposition status in 2011 was sudden and euphoric, its fall back to third-party status traumatic.

Nevertheless,Tom Mulcair's electoral performance in 2015 ranks positively against those of NDP leaders who preceded him.

However, the party's concentration of support in Quebec masks regional weaknesses that make Mulcair look much less impressive when stacked up against his predecessors.

You can read the rest of this article on Tom Mulcair's NDP leadership situation here.


  1. I enjoyed the pollcast on Manitoba. I thought Cameron MacIntosh gave a good assessment. I would however pick him up on one point to do with election preparation. He mentioned that the Liberals were still nominating candidates, but did not mention the same was true of the NDP. I thought it was interesting that you asked him if the PCs had a floor that drops below 43%. The inference being could a surging Liberal Party eat into PC support. He didn't address this point and instead only talked about the Liberals ability to eat into NDP support. One thing we do know, and that is the Conservatives only polled 37% in Manitoba last October, a point that was as worthy as mentioning as your point about the Liberals polling 45% last October. There was one point that the pollcast did not mention that may have a significant impact on the election, and that is the meeting of the Federal NDP in early April to consider the leadership of Tom Mulcair. What's happening to a federal party can have a significant impact on the provincial election. We only need to look at 2011 to confirm this; then the provincial Liberal support was cut in half after the federal election defeat and Michael Ignatieff's resignation.

  2. Trump will probably get the nomination and if he does will he win the Presidency??

    1. If Trump is up against Clinton he'll win. The American people made their choice on Clinton 8 years ago and voted for Obama. Clinton is a very flawed candidate and her greatest strength and main selling point is her sex. If she keeps telling people to vote for her because she is a woman many people will do the opposite to show they have a mind of their own!

      It's Bernie or bust for America I'm afraid. At least Bernie wants to confront major societal problems. The rest of the field both Republican and Democrat are more interested in demagoguery.

      Interesting in the Alberta poll support for a conservative merger is about split and below 50%. Even though most Albertans don't expect the NDP to be re-elected in 2019 the realignment that began last Spring shows signs of continuing for at least a another election cycle if not two.

    2. But bede the Republican hierarchy absolutely can't stand Trump and unless he comes into the convention with the required delegates already their will be a massive floor fight and Trump will probably lose !!

    3. I am afraid bede that you are making the same mistake that the NDP made in the last Canadian election with their 30 seat more campaign. You assume that the situation in 2016 is the same as in 2012. IT IS NOT! Every election starts with a clean slate. While Trump has positons which edears hime to republican primary voters, they repel a lot of voters who only vote in general elections. Polling of a Trump Clinton match up show Clinton ahead by a 9 point margin (h/t huffpost pollster). This margin would put senate seats like New Hampshire, Illinois, and North Carolina in play. Trump will not only be a disaster on the presidential level but also on the senatorial level.

    4. There are a couple of problems with that bede. First the GOP establishment does NOT want Trump Period !!

      Second I don't think the US pubic will vote for Trump.

      So the big question becomes who will get the GOP nomination ??

    5. Peter,

      Who is this establishment? Trump is receiving 40% of Republican votes? So what if "they" don't want Trump. Changing the rules disallowing Trump will guarantee a Democrat in the White House. Frankly all this talk of back room conspiracies to deny a Trump nomination are just that, conspiracy theories of the same order and magnitude as alien abductions or the Russians killed Kennedy: fantasy, fiction. The rules do not work that way. As it stands if Trump gets the delegates he'll be the nominee. Frankly all this talk of a brokered convention or establishment conspiracy helps Trump immensely. It gives the perception that what is in fact a speculative implausibility is real. Trump can win if he becomes the "anti-establishment candidate". So speculating on a subject with little probability of manifesting does immeasurable good for Mr. Trump's campaign. It turns him into something he isn't-a hero for the working man, the middle class, the little guy-makes him appear he shares common values-that he is a victim of Wall Street and the Establishment just like the poor American tax payer. It is all baloney of course be oft repeating the same old speculation helps no one but Trump.


      The only mistakes I can find are in your math skills, 2008 not 2012! and spelling at least three spelling errors (I stopped counting). Those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones!

    6. The pedantic nature of your recent post should not obscure the basic point. That point is that trump will not win a general election.

    7. I'm not sure about that. No one thought he would get this far.

      Campaigns matter.

    8. Robert Duckham,

      You are the one who brought up "mistakes". "you are making the same mistake the NDP made..."(Robert Duckham, march 20, 2016, 7:39). In fact what I wrote was opinion not factual and so there was no factual error, no mistake made. Now, to be rude when I am simply returning the favour and pointing out your mistakes factual grammar and otherwise is off-putting to say the least. You can dish it but not take it! In any case I will refrain from pointing out the large grammar error contained in your last comment nor the spelling mistake. I will also point out your last comment is merely your opinion just as the comment that started this thread was merely my opinion so please stop lecturing others on pedantry.

  3. interesting by-election in Alberta on Tuesday March 22. Will the NDP, PC, or the Wildrose win?? Interesting dynamics in the outcome for all 3 parties.

    1. I presume this is the late Mr. Bhullar's seat. I think his sister is running for the PCs. I predict a PC win.

    2. His sister by the name of Prab Gill, who happens to be an older balding man?

    3. Hence why I wrote "I think" Kyle H. "his sister is running". I still predict a Tory win as the riding was a safe seat until last May and since then the PC's have experienced an uptick in the polls, assuming the polls are to be believed.

      It should be a seat where a strong Liberal candidate could make an impact but, it appears the Alberta Liberals are as broke and disorganised as ever. Really too bad Alberta in my opinion needs a strong alternative the Liberal party would and should do well but, somehow the homogeneous nature of Alberta can create two even three rightwing parties or an extreme left party but leave out the middle of the road alternative. I think the only solution to divide Alberta between Saskatchewan and B.C. Us British Columbians only want the mountains so unfortunately that leaves Saskatchewan with most of the "bad bits" but, everyone I know from Saskatchewan keeps telling me how wonderful Saskatchewan is (none of them have lived in Saskatchewan for years of course something about the Winter) I am positive that hardworking Prairie Province can turn Alberta around just as easily as they gave healthcare to the rest of Canada! Good luck Saskatchewan!

    4. Called it PC victory!

      A real four way match. Slightly good news for the NDP as they appear still to be competitive for now at least in working class Calgary. The Liberals appear to have maintained their small base in the City and Wildrose almost pulled out a victory.

      If anyone was the loser last night it was Wildrose who clearly have not cemented their hoped for role as the conservative alternative. All-in-all every party walked away with something to be optimistic about. It looks as if the political realignment that began last May is far from being completed. This is clearly a set back for any hoped for united conservative movement and I would hypoithesise both the PCs and Wildrose will participate in the next election with any merger happening sometime after that depending on the results so, 2021 at the earliest.

  4. bede dunelm,

    Absolutely agree on Trump vs. Clinton. However, it's latent sexism re: Commander in Chief that will be her undoing.

    1. Trump's greatest strength as a politician is his apparent ability to control the media at will.

      The ad equivalent value of that is staggering.

    2. RO'D,

      I think you have hit the nail on the head with the commander-in-chief question but, not because she is a woman but because of Libya and her miscalculation regarding embassy security. It will be her undoing especially as it relates to her private server and everything else that entails most of which we still don't know.


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