Thursday, June 9, 2016

The Pollcast: NDP leadership up for grabs — who wants it?

Last week, B.C. MP Nathan Cullen ruled himself out for the leadership of the NDP. This week, Ontario MPP Cheri DiNovo threw her hat into the ring — "unofficially."

The race to replace Tom Mulcair as leader of the New Democrats is off to a rough start. Where does it go from here?

Cullen, who was seen as a potential front runner, was not the only high-profile New Democrat to turn down the job. Former Nova Scotia MP Megan Leslie, who was also considered a potential future leader, said she wasn't interested in the position shortly after Tom Mulcair lost a leadership review vote at the NDP's convention in April.

So far, DiNovo is the only candidate to express an interest in the leadership. But despite her campaign launch earlier this week, DiNovo says she has no intention of paying the party's $30,000 entrance fee, and so is not an official candidate.

A lot of time remains before party members cast a ballot — the vote will only be held in September or October 2017. It could be some time before better known candidates decide to take the plunge. But who might they be?

Joining me to handicap the early days of the NDP leadership race are two party insiders, Robin MacLachlan, vice president at Summa Strategies, and Sally Housser, senior consultant at Navigator.

You can listen to the podcast here.

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the all-important electoral college, polls suggest

After finally securing a majority of pledged delegates in the Democratic presidential nomination last night — and a majority of all delegates, including superdelegates, on Monday — Hillary Clinton is now the presumptive Democratic nominee. Only Donald Trump now stands between her and the White House, and her chances still look good against the erratic and unpredictable Republican candidate.

After closing the gap on his Democratic rival, Trump has failed to maintain that forward momentum in recent polls. Though he still trails Clinton by a handful of points nationwide, the electoral map remains an imposing challenge for him.

You can read the rest of this article here. This article also represents the launching of a new U.S. projection model. The full methodology for the new model can be found here. Should be an interesting five months!

British voters leaning Leave as Brexit referendum approaches, polls suggest

After months of a "Brexit" looking like a long shot, the United Kingdom might be heading towards that option as the referendum on the country's membership in the European Union finally approaches.

This according to a slew of recent polls. But the margin between the two options on the June 23 referendum ballot — to "remain" a member of the EU or to "leave" it — is very close, and past experience in favour of the status quo suggests the betting odds might still be in favour of a vote to stay.

You can read the rest of this article here.