Wednesday, June 29, 2016

2 of the next 3 Amigos could mean trouble for Trudeau

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto at the North American Leaders' Summit today. The remainder of Obama's presidency can be counted in months, while Pena Nieto, unpopular at home, will complete his single term in 2018.

Nevertheless, these two leaders present Trudeau with perhaps the best opportunity for continental co-operation — as their replacements could prove much less inclined to see eye-to-eye with the prime minister, particularly on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Of the Three Amigos, Trudeau is certainly in the strongest position. His term in office will continue until at least 2019 and likely beyond, as one-term governments are rare in Canada.

You can read the rest of this analysis here.

Clinton widens her edge in the electoral college over beleaguered Trump

The electoral map in the United States may be in flux as the presumptive presidential nominees feel their way forward in a volatile election. But if the map is changing, it could be getting worse for Donald Trump.

The problems surrounding the Republican's presidential bid have been mounting. Trump's team is being outspent, out-staffed, and out-fundraised by the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. He continues to be outpolled by Clinton as well.

But the national popular vote only tells a small piece of the story. The real challenges for Trump are at the state level, where the electoral college decides who becomes president.

You can read the rest of this update on the U.S. projection model's latest numbers here.