Wednesday, June 29, 2016

2 of the next 3 Amigos could mean trouble for Trudeau


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto at the North American Leaders' Summit today. The remainder of Obama's presidency can be counted in months, while Pena Nieto, unpopular at home, will complete his single term in 2018.

Nevertheless, these two leaders present Trudeau with perhaps the best opportunity for continental co-operation — as their replacements could prove much less inclined to see eye-to-eye with the prime minister, particularly on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Of the Three Amigos, Trudeau is certainly in the strongest position. His term in office will continue until at least 2019 and likely beyond, as one-term governments are rare in Canada.

You can read the rest of this analysis here.


Clinton widens her edge in the electoral college over beleaguered Trump


The electoral map in the United States may be in flux as the presumptive presidential nominees feel their way forward in a volatile election. But if the map is changing, it could be getting worse for Donald Trump.

The problems surrounding the Republican's presidential bid have been mounting. Trump's team is being outspent, out-staffed, and out-fundraised by the presumptive Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. He continues to be outpolled by Clinton as well.

But the national popular vote only tells a small piece of the story. The real challenges for Trump are at the state level, where the electoral college decides who becomes president.

You can read the rest of this update on the U.S. projection model's latest numbers here.

20 comments:

  1. Behind the scenes many GOP states have been enacting legislation to make it difficult for blacks to vote.

    Are the models accounting for the effects of voter suppression?

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    1. How would you ever account for that.

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    2. I would think a regular turnout model would do the job.

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    3. At the very least, we'd need to see the effects of specific voter suppression strategies so we could build a model. But at this point we'd just be guessing.

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  2. Much as I don't like her Hillary, at least at this point, will win and that really has to be better than Trump. Meanwhile the Bernie Sanders movement continues to gain strength. Going to be interesting.

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    1. It will be interesting if Trump somehow makes it interesting, but otherwise this should be a pretty straightforward victory for Clinton.

      Bernie Sanders is no longer relevant.

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  3. Éric,

    These guys forget how polls almost always tighten in the fall. Add to that those who deliberately lie to pollsters and voilà.

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    1. But those liars don't produce a statistically significant bias, because he happens roughly equally in all directions.

      And as much as Donald Trump seems tailor-made to produce a Shy Tory effect, his supporters don't seem to be at all shy about their support for him.

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  4. Heck of an election going on in Australia! Polls closed yesterday and it is still too close to call! Demonstrates one of the problems with Trudeau's electoral reform package-this election and hence the Government of Australia is likely to be determined by 5th preference votes and the results will take at least four days to tabulate and likely well more than a week before re-counts are completed and the vote verified. #weneedareferendum

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  5. So Donald Trump continues to be a crazy person, though he's executing perhaps the most skilful dog whistle politics the world has seen in 50 years.

    And Clinton, though she didn't get indicted (which was never going to happen) got just about the worst possible non-indictment outcome from the FBI regarding her mishandling of classified documents.

    Clinton's misdeeds make Maxime Bernier's look so small by comparison.

    This US election is going to be so entertaining. Both parties have selected absolutely abysmal candidates. Right now, Clinton is polling 4-6 points ahead of Trump, but usually a close US election polls at 49-47. This election is 42-37. Both Clinton and Trump are remarkably unpopular.

    I think whichever side manages to drive down the other side's voter turnout farther will win. And that's probably going to be Clinton, because hers in the only campaign that seems organized enough to run effective attack ads (the best way to reduce voter turnout).

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  6. No new post since June 29. Is this site more or less done now that Eric's with CBC?

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    1. No, just on vacation! But I'm back now. Look for new posts next week (maybe this weekend).

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  7. The Australian general election is... still... going... on! A week after voters went to the polls vote counting continues, the race is still tight although it has become clear to everybody with the exception of Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten who refuses to concede defeat, that Malcom Turnbull has won the general election having secured a minimum of 74 seats and the support of three independent members for a total of 77 out of 150 with 5 seats still counting and Labor on 66 for certain.

    Shambolic! This is the same system the Liberals wish to impose on Canada without a referendum! At least give the people an opportunity to properly debate the issue through a referendum campaign. It should be common sense it really should-this is an issue for all Canadians- why would we confine the debate and decision making exclusively for the political class?

    In any case I recommends all psephologists to check out the Australian Electoral Commission's website as well as ABC News election website and commentator Antony Green's blog.

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    1. bede just stay with FPTP, all the other systems cause fubars !!

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    2. I didn't realise a system was almost ready to proposed...or to the point that any actual decisions have been made about anything other than forming the committee to look into it.

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    3. Seriously dude, a week is nothing. The USA waits two months before installing its new president and the vote count usually takes a week or even longer (check when California announced the final tally in Obama vs Romney). It's just that usually we know the winner much earlier.

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    4. Exactly Peter. Now we just have to tell Trudeau that because he does seem to want to listen to the people!

      No Carl, the Liberals proposed to have "consultations" this Summer but, have not organised themselves sufficiently thus far to do so. The word from Liberal Party insiders; the consultations are little more than pro forma and the decision on the system was taken long ago by Justin to introduce the Australian STV system onto Canadian electoral districts. The consultations and parliamentary committee are little more than token gestures. Just like Trudeau's "reforms" to the Senate, he didn't bother to consult with Provinces or Canadians on what reforms they think necessary to the Upper Chamber. In fact at least three provinces hold the position senators should be elected and have enacted legislation on the matter, Quebec's position is the status quo. Justin talked a good game about consulting and listening to people but, thus far his words have not matched his actions.

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    5. Kenney announces his campaign for the Alberta PCP under the slogan Unite Alberta (i.e. unite the right) as I said he would before.

      The whole point is that if he wins, he would have a mandate both in terms of the PCP membership to seek a union and more importantly in terms of public opinion.

      Winning the election in four years would be a whole different story. If the economy has recovered, there is a pipeline being built and the progressive wing of the CPC moves over under a new name for the Alberta NDP it just might get a second term. Otherwise they are toast against a united right.

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    6. Kenny running for the PCA leadership was the worst kept secret in Alberta politics for the first half of 2016. I'm still somewhat surprised he made the jump as victory is far from assured. His only path to winning seems to be a hostile takeover of the PCs through overwhelming the membership with new social conservative Kenny members. If that happens a large portion of the 20% or so who still support the PCs would go over to either the leaderless Liberals or Notley's NDP.

      Alberta is big enough for two conservative parties and so long as that is the case new populist parties will rise and fall with regularity. Ultimately the decision will be made at the ballot box, Albertans may prefer Socialism to a united right or Kenny or both?

      For my money I don't think Kenny will be able to win. It is hard enough to swamp the PCs with your acolytes but, the leadership is determined through a delegated convention which probably favours the old guard and someone like Sandra Jansen who already holds a seat in the Legislative Assembly.

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    7. It definitely looks like a hostile takeover. If it succeeds, I suspect it to buoy the prospects of the Alberta Liberals and the Alberta Party considerably as voters look for somewhere else to go. I also expect Kenney's new party would absorb WR pretty quickly and he'd win the next election.

      WR loves Kenney. Kenney has openly campaigned for WR in 3 straight Alberta elections.

      I agree that Jansen would probably make the better premier (if only because Kenney's adversarial style wouldn't work well with Trudeau, and the premier of Alberta needs the Prime Minister as an ally in order to get any pipelines built.

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