Friday, June 3, 2016

The Pollcast: Liberals shift on electoral reform — what now?


The Liberals have backed down on their electoral reform plans, accepting an NDP proposal to award seats on the electoral reform committee according to how many votes each party earned in last year's election.

That means the Liberals have given up their majority on that committee. What's next?

After months of saying that the original proposal for the make up of the committee — giving the Liberals a majority of seats while awarding the Greens and Bloc Québécois one seat apiece, but no voting rights — was appropriate, the shift in the Liberals' position is dramatic.

Does this signal that the Liberals and New Democrats will co-operate on electoral reform? As the New Democrats support a form of proportional representation, is that now likely to be the kind of system that will be used in the 2019 federal election? And where does the Conservative Party fit into the equation, now that they've lost an opposition ally?

Joining me to try to answer these questions is the CBC's Aaron Wherry.

You can listen to the latest episode of The Pollcast here.

Justin Trudeau's Liberals hold support from post-election honeymoon — plus, the launch of the Leader Meter!


Honeymoons don't last forever. But that doesn't mean the love affair has to end — and the love affair Canadians are having with Justin Trudeau's Liberals appears to be enduring in the polls.

The Liberals continue to hold the new support they captured after their majority victory in last fall's federal election, when they pulled votes away from both the Conservatives and New Democrats.

Justin Trudeau's own popularity also remains high, with approval ratings well above those of both of his main rivals, interim Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose and outgoing NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, as well as the ratings he posted before last year's vote.

The CBC's new interactive tool, the Leader Meter, lets you track those numbers.

You can read the rest of my analysis on the state of federal polling numbers here.

But first a few words about the new Leader Meter!

The Leader Meter is an interactive feature tracking the latest public opinion polls related to leaders' approval and disapproval ratings. The Leader Meter lets you choose the data you want to look at, how you want to break it down, and how it compares to past party leaders and Canadian prime ministers.

You can check out the Leader Meter here. You can also read a full explanation on how to get the most out of this interactive tool here.

The Leader Meter is a really fun interactive feature — I hope you'll enjoy it. I'll be updating it whenever new data emerges.

7 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. I enjoy the Leader Meter, Eric! Just a couple questions though, if you'll indulge me:

    Are the numbers for Fortin only limited to Quebec or do the pollsters (or you) include everyone in Canada? Because while I can see Fortin not having a positive approval, I can't see how he's managed to get a 44% disapproval rating except for the fact that he's the leader of the Bloc.

    Second, do you add in all these weird Nanos indexes we keep getting? How do those affect your meter, if they do at all?

    Thanks!

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    1. Numbers for Bloc leaders are for Quebec only. And you're right, a lot of people disapprove of Fortin because he leads the Bloc. I imagine a lot of his approval comes from Bloc voters who aren't familiar with him, too.

      No Nanos polls, only polls that have approval questions.

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  3. Kevin O'Leary

    Canada's Donald Trump !!

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    1. It speaks well of Canada that O'Leary doesn't have a chance.

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  4. Was offered by Mozilla a "Refresh"for Firefox. Took it. Now Leader Meter works.

    Fascinating ?

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