Monday, January 9, 2017

1 member, 1 vote, a month of suspense: why the NDP leadership race will be different from the Conservative


The campaign to name the next leader of the New Democratic Party will be markedly different from the ongoing Conservative leadership race — and not only because the list of candidates for the job is expected to be much shorter.

Thanks to the rules of the NDP leadership vote, the winner will not necessarily need the same broad regional backing that is key to winning the Conservative title.

And whereas the final suspense in the Conservative race will only come at its end on May 27, the NDP campaign will finish in a flurry of activity as the results are announced, round by round, through October.

You can read the rest of this article here.

1 comment:

  1. I thought the NDP had turned a corner. Polls numbers were rising albeit slowly and very modestly, the big dump of last year and the divide from it were closing.

    However their silly leadership (it is hard to know exactly what to call it)election process is just stupid, stupid, stupid. First off, at this point it looks like they'll finish their election process a couple of weeks early-maybe four. So that just looks silly. Are they going to rent a new room every week to celebrate? It's just weird and perhaps smacks of unrealistic expectations. Where are they going to find five candidates? Where did they find their first one? Oh... wait... a..minute...

    So what is going on? Is this just proof the old adage: the NDP can't manage a peanut stand true?

    Is there really a groundswell of support about to emerge and propel 5 or six candidates toward October?

    Are Dippers just really odd or worse?

    Sadly it's the last one. Dippers simply are not being realistic. Demoralised from their "self-expected" win in the last election Dippers have retreated to an imaginary world where the party executive must bat away potential leaders with a broom-the same one with which Socialist pretend they'll sweep away Capitalism! Worse still if; by some amazing coincidence, miracle or ill-luck their election process does last five weeks the new leader will have missed half the Fall sitting. Perhaps the whole thing!

    Let's take stock:

    In a change election where arguably election of a NDP Government would equate to the biggest change. They were outflanked on the left and dropped from second to third party status. Subsequently becoming leaderless and currently sit 10 points below their 2015 election result. Morale is poor and raising money is difficult.

    On the plus side: They still achieved an unusually high popular vote and their second highest seat total in 2015.

    As of Today; Having dropped 15 points after the election they have made a modest rebound and sit at roughly their historical average of 15.3% popular support, half what Jack Layton attracted in 2011.

    They still hold significant regional support bases: B.C. (Vancouver Island, East Vancouver, parts of the Cariboo and Kootenays), Windsor and South West Ontario, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Regina, Halifax, parts of Toronto and potentially parts of Quebec. They desperately need two things; leadership candidates and a Quebec lieutenant.

    Rachel Notley is holding her own and is generating national if not international interest. If conservatives can stay apart and every indication suggests they will, the NDP may pull off back-to-back majority governments. A feat not seen in the NDP since, Greg Selinger won 37 seats in 2011. If they can win in B.C. this May; as unlikely as that was yesterday, today, it looks as if Christy may be involved in a scandal with the ethics commissioner! Ah. B.C. politics. In any case ,there is hope if you can see and the job does come with a pay raise for an ordinary M.P. You may even become a Privy Councillor!

    So what is wrong? I really don't know. Generally there seems to be a lack of leadership. By protracting their leadership contest until potentially November they reinforce this vicious cycle. It's pathetic and frankly it demonstrates why the old adage holds some truth.

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