Liberals in second?

With an election almost four years away, the stakes are low. But are the Liberals really back in second place?

You can read the rest of the article on The Huffington Post Canada site here.

Nanos released a new poll earlier this week. Putting the Liberals in second place ahead of the New Democrats, it got some attention.

Nanos was last in the field October 20-24, and since then the Conservatives have dropped 2.1 points. They stand at 35.6% in this poll, a level of support the party was very familiar with for the year prior to the May 2011 election.

The Liberals, at 28.1%, have gained 4.7 points while the New Democrats, with 27.3%, have dropped 2.7 points.

The Bloc Québécois and Greens are at 3.9% apiece.

The most interesting result is in Ontario, where the Liberals are up 8.3 points to 38.8%. The Conservatives are down 5.2 points to 37.2%, while the NDP is down 2.9 points to 19.6%. This is a remarkable result for the Liberals, but it is difficult to attribute this to the Ontario election. The big jump in Liberal support has come since that late October poll, which was done well after the provincial vote. There could be a bit of delay, but it doesn't seem to explain away all of this increase. It appears that Ontario is reverting to its pre-2011 status of the Liberals and Tories neck-and-neck and the NDP at 20% or lower. An Ontario-based NDP leader like Brian Topp, Peggy Nash, or Paul Dewar might help in that department.

In Quebec, Nanos confirms what four others polls have shown: the NDP is below 40%. They've dropped 7.4 points to 37.7%, while the Liberals are up 5.4 points to 23.6%. That is a much higher result than other polls have shown. The Conservatives are up five points to 20.1% while the Bloc is up 0.7 points to 15.9%. Nanos continues to be the only pollster showing the Bloc at such a low level of support.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives are down a point in British Columbia but still lead with 39.4%. The New Democrats are up 2.7 points to 28.8% while the Liberals are down 5.8 points to 20.4%. The three-way race in Atlantic Canada continues, while in the Prairies (which Nanos lumps Alberta into) the Conservatives are down 7.3 points to 48.6%. The NDP is down 2.2 points to 24.3% while the Liberals are up 6.6 points to 21%.

In the 308-seat House of Commons, the Conservatives win 132 seats with these poll numbers. The New Democrats take 94 seats and the Liberals 81, with one seat going to the Greens in British Columbia.

The Conservatives win 20 seats in British Columbia, 25 in Alberta, 17 in the Prairies, 46 in Ontario, nine in Quebec, 14 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

The New Democrats win 11 seats in British Columbia, one in Alberta, six in the Prairies, 17 in Ontario, 52 in Quebec, six in Atlantic Canada and one in the north.

The Liberals win four seats in British Columbia, two in Alberta, five in the Prairies, 43 in Ontario, 14 in Quebec, 12 in Atlantic Canada, and one in the north.

Yes, two Liberal seats in Alberta. In vain, I will try to head-off the incredulity that this will cause. I already see the "two Liberal seats in Alberta?!?!" comments coming.

Nanos doesn't separate Alberta from the two other Prairie provinces like every other pollster does. Because of this, I need to separate the results myself, and doing so with this poll gives the Conservatives 52% and the Liberals 18% in Alberta. This means a drop of more than 1/5th for the Tories and a doubling of Liberal support. With that happening, the Liberals gain Calgary Northeast and Edmonton Centre.

Do I think this would actually happen? No. But that is what the numbers show. Double the support of the Liberals and drop the Tories by almost one quarter, and, surprise surprise, the Conservatives don't sweep everything but Edmonton-Strathcona.

With a 338-seat House of Commons, a quick estimate gives the Conservatives 148 seats, the New Democrats 100 seats, and the Liberals 89, with the Greens still winning one.

This is only one poll, and there isn't enough information yet to say that the Liberals have definitely moved into second place, or even whether they are in a tight race with the NDP. Yes, the next election is almost four years away and, yes, the NDP has no leader, but this poll is what it is. What it suggests is that the Liberals are not dead and do have potential to make a comeback, while the Conservative lead is quite wobbly.

Arsenault on track to win Bonaventure

Quebecers love polls. Le Devoir/The Montreal Gazette and La Presse put out polls on a monthly basis, while in the last federal campaign one-third of Quebec's 75 ridings were polled individually. Less than a dozen were polled in the rest of the country.

A by-election in a safe Liberal riding far removed from Quebec's urban centres would not, you would think, garner much attention. But no, this week a second poll for the Bonaventure by-election has been released. By comparison, the last spate of federal by-elections, two of which were hotly contested and in major urban centres, were not polled at all!

This Bonaventure by-election, however, is not insignificant. Pauline Marois has been pressing the flesh for days in the riding, despite the odds being stacked against her. Helping out the local PQ candidate Sylvain Roy raises the stakes for Marois, as a loss will hurt her more than it otherwise would have. Of course, the PQ put off a national convention for this by-election so it would have been bad optics for her to put up her feet this past week.

But for all her efforts, it does not look like the Parti Québécois will pull off another upset in Bonaventure like they did in Kamouraska-Témiscouata a year ago. The poll by Segma Recherche for Graffici.ca and a local radio station suggests that little has changed since their last poll taken mid-campaign.

Liberal candidate Damien Arsenault has dropped only three points, and leads with 49%. Granted, that is a big drop from Nathalie Normandeau's numbers, but it is still almost a majority. The PQ is down one point to 35%, while Patricia Chartier of Québec Solidaire is up three points to 9%. That is not a bad number for QS, as it has not had a great record outside of Montreal.

The ADQ's Georges Painchaud is only at 4%, while Jean Cloutier of the Greens is at 3%. Cloutier got some attention this week as he invited francophones to vote for the PQ as it has the best chance to win while also having what he considers better positions on the environment.

Independent Martin Zibeau scored 0.4%.

Many have thought that Arsenault would win because he is an Arsenault, but that may not be the case. His town, Saint-Elzéar, is not exactly a metropolis in the region. Instead, Segma has found that 44% of Liberal supporters will be voting for Arsenault because of the good work that Normandeau did when she was the MNA. Only 35% said they were voting because of Arsenault himself, while 15% said they were voting for the Liberals because of their approval of Jean Charest's government.

For the other parties, Charest is the lightning rod. More than half said they were voting for another party because of their dissatisfaction with the Liberals, while only 23% identified the candidate as their primary reason for voting the way they intend to.

But what if François Legault's CAQ had entered a candidate into the race? Painchaud was likely hoping that an ADQ/CAQ merger would already be in the works by the day of the vote when he decided to carry the ADQ banner. But it would not have necessarily given him a win. Only 15% of respondents said they would have voted CAQ if the party had entered a candidate into the race. That would have put the party in a decent third, dropping the PQ to some 29% according to the poll, but nowhere near the Liberals, who would have dropped to about 45%.

Monday's vote looks like a slam dunk for Damien Arsenault and the Liberals, giving Jean Charest the first bit of good news he has had in quite some time. Though 35% would be a good improvement over the PQ's performance in the riding in 2008, it might not be enough of a gain to give Marois something to boast about. Will she survive the results? I don't think Bonaventure will put a stake in her leadership's heart, but it might be another nail in the coffin.