Weekly Projection Update: CPC 129, LPC 105

Another week, another projection. The Conservatives continue to inch upwards.The Conservatives have picked up one seat to reach 129. The Liberals remain steady at 105 seats, while the Bloc Quebecois loses one and stands at 49. At 25 seats, the NDP is steady.

But there was some trading of seats at the regional level. In Ontario, the Tories have picked up one seat from the Liberals but that was off-set by a Liberal gain in Atlantic Canada at the expense of Stephen Harper's party. The Bloc has lost one seat to the Conservatives in Quebec.

In terms of the national vote, the Conservatives and Liberals have traded 0.3 points. The Tories now stand at 34.0%, the Liberals at 31.4%, the NDP at 15.7%, and the Bloc and Greens tied at 9.2%.

British Columbia has seen no seat changes, but the Conservatives and Greens have each picked up 0.2 points. The NDP has lost 0.2 points. The standings in the province are now 37.1% for the Conservatives, 26.1% for the Liberals, 24.4% for the NDP, and 11.7% for the Greens. The Tories hold 21 seats, the Liberals 10, and the NDP 5.

As mentioned, the Conservatives took one seat from the Liberals in Ontario. They've also gained 0.6 points, a big weekly increase in this projection. The Liberals have lost 0.7 points, but still hold a very, very narrow lead in the province. The Liberals are at 37.4% and 49 seats, the Conservatives at 37.1% and 46 seats, the NDP at 15.0% and 11 seats, and the Greens are at 10.0%.

Quebec has also seen some movement. The Conservatives have gained one seat from the Bloc Quebecois. The Tories have gained 0.4 points, the NDP 0.2 points, and the Greens 0.1 points. The Bloc has lost 0.3 points and the Liberals 0.4 points. The Bloc Quebecois is now projected to take 36.7% of the vote and 49 seats. The Liberals are at 29.5% and 19 seats, the Conservatives at 16.5% and six seats, and the NDP is at 10.9% and one seat. The Greens are at 6.1%.

As for the non-battleground regions, we have some significant movement. In Alberta the Conservatives have gained 0.7 points while the Liberals are down 0.4. In the Prairies, the NDP is down 0.6 points while the Conservatives are up 0.3. And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are up 0.6 points, the Conservatives are down 0.4, the NDP is down 0.3 points, and the Greens are up 0.3. All other regional movements were less than 0.3 points.

In all, the Conservatives are up in six of the seven regions. The Greens are up in three regions, the Liberals are up in two, and the NDP is up in one.

The Conservatives are on the brink of being projected to win a stable minority. Currently, the Liberals and the NDP are projected to hold 130 seats - one more than the Conservatives.

The Toronto Star is teasing an Angus-Reid poll taken on Tuesday and Wednesday. All they mention is that the Conservatives are at 37%, the Liberals at 27%, the NDP at 17%, and the Bloc at 11%. That means the Liberals have suffered from this week's manoeuvres while the NDP has benefited. It also probably means that the Bloc, at 11%, has made some political hay out of the Coderre affair.

More when I have more!

New Ekos Poll: 6.3-pt Conservative Lead; Nanos Poll

EKOS has released its weekly poll this morning, taken between September 23 and September 29 and involved 3,216 Canadians. The result:

Conservatives - 36.0%
Liberals - 29.7%
New Democrats - 13.9%
Greens - 10.5%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.8%

This represents small losses for the Conservatives and Liberals, and modest gains for the NDP. But this is just what we've seen over the last little while, so nothing new here. The Tory lead seems to have plateaued, while the Liberal vote has seemed to have bottomed out. The NDP are still in a very worrisome position.

The regionals are consistent with what the other polling firms have reported over the last week.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 37.4%, the Liberals follow with 25%, and the NDP is in third with 23.3%. The Greens are at 14.3%. I think the NDP and Liberals would be happy with these results, the Conservatives not.

Alberta has the Conservatives way out in front at 63.1%, followed by the Liberals at 16%, the Greens at 10.8%, and the NDP at 10.1%.

The Tories lead in the Prairies with 48.8% followed by the Liberals at 26.2% and the NDP, still under-achieving, at 20%.

The big Conservative lead in Ontario seems to be narrowing of late, with the Conservatives at 40.2% and the Liberals at 35.7%. The NDP is at 13.4%.

The Bloc sees a bump in Quebec to 39.6%, while the Liberals have dropped a little to 26.4%. The Conservatives are at 16.6%, the Greens at 9.2%, and the NDP at 8.2%. If the NDP finishes in fifth in Quebec, they really need to be worried.

The Liberals still hold a significant lead in Atlantic Canada, 40.7% to the Tory 28.7%. At 18.9%, the NDP is in trouble.

Demographically, the Tories lead the Liberals among males (40.1% to 28.4%), females (31.8% to 31.1%), 45-64 year olds (40.9% to 29.8%), 65+ year olds (45.6% to 29.8%), high school graduates (37.9% to 22.3%), college graduates (40.3% to 26.9%), and in Vancouver (40.2% to 26.5%), Calgary (62% to 19.6%), and Ottawa (43.4% to 39.3%). That last one shows the Liberals closing the gap in the nation's capital. And why do they poll Calgary? That is a deep Tory blue. Edmonton would be so much more useful.

The Liberals lead the Greens among those aged 25 or younger (25% to 22.5%). They lead the Tories among 25-44 year olds (30.6% to 30.5%) and university graduates (37.1% to 31.3%). They also lead in Toronto (43.3% to 38.1%) after losing that lead last week.

The Bloc leads in Montreal (34.5% to the Liberals' 31.7%). The NDP's best result came among those under the age of 25, with 16.9%. Among the major cities, they're doing best in Vancouver (20.7%).

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 136
Liberals - 99
Bloc Quebecois - 52
New Democrats - 21

Some better results for the Liberals then we've been seeing, and the Bloc would certainly be happy with 52.

The poll also featured some other topics. 38% of Canadians are embarrassed with Canada's environmental record, while 23% are proud and 29% are neither.

49% support compulsory voting (surprisingly), while 36% oppose.

The mission in Afghanistan is unpopular, with 33% supporting it and 52% opposing it. The breakdown by party affiliation is interesting, as 49% of Conservatives support the mission compared to 34% who don't. Meanwhile, 55% of Liberals oppose the mission compared to 31% who support it. The Bloc's voters are most adamant about the war, with 75% opposed and only 14% in favour.

Nanos has released the results of an older poll, taken between September 3 and September 11 and involving 1,002 Canadians. It has to do with government and elections.

74.6% of Canadians expect minorities in the future, but 80.6% would prefer a majority. Oddly, only Green voters aren't in favour of a majority government. Why Bloc or NDP voters would like to see a majority government is beyond me. "I want to vote for a party that will be absolutely irrelevant for four years!" How does that make sense? The NDP and the Bloc have had real influence on how the government is run because they weren't in majority situations.

As to who can best manage a minority government, and Nanos begs the respondents to put aside their political views (they don't), Stephen Harper leads with 32.8%, followed by Michael Ignatieff at 23.0%, Jack Layton at 14.4%, and Gilles Duceppe at 5.9%.

Finally, as to whether Canadians wanted an election this fall or not, 22.6% said they did and 72.6% said they didn't.

The projection will be updated either tonight or tomorrow morning.