Friday, October 2, 2009

Weekly Projection Update: CPC 129, LPC 105

Another week, another projection. The Conservatives continue to inch upwards.The Conservatives have picked up one seat to reach 129. The Liberals remain steady at 105 seats, while the Bloc Quebecois loses one and stands at 49. At 25 seats, the NDP is steady.

But there was some trading of seats at the regional level. In Ontario, the Tories have picked up one seat from the Liberals but that was off-set by a Liberal gain in Atlantic Canada at the expense of Stephen Harper's party. The Bloc has lost one seat to the Conservatives in Quebec.

In terms of the national vote, the Conservatives and Liberals have traded 0.3 points. The Tories now stand at 34.0%, the Liberals at 31.4%, the NDP at 15.7%, and the Bloc and Greens tied at 9.2%.

British Columbia has seen no seat changes, but the Conservatives and Greens have each picked up 0.2 points. The NDP has lost 0.2 points. The standings in the province are now 37.1% for the Conservatives, 26.1% for the Liberals, 24.4% for the NDP, and 11.7% for the Greens. The Tories hold 21 seats, the Liberals 10, and the NDP 5.

As mentioned, the Conservatives took one seat from the Liberals in Ontario. They've also gained 0.6 points, a big weekly increase in this projection. The Liberals have lost 0.7 points, but still hold a very, very narrow lead in the province. The Liberals are at 37.4% and 49 seats, the Conservatives at 37.1% and 46 seats, the NDP at 15.0% and 11 seats, and the Greens are at 10.0%.

Quebec has also seen some movement. The Conservatives have gained one seat from the Bloc Quebecois. The Tories have gained 0.4 points, the NDP 0.2 points, and the Greens 0.1 points. The Bloc has lost 0.3 points and the Liberals 0.4 points. The Bloc Quebecois is now projected to take 36.7% of the vote and 49 seats. The Liberals are at 29.5% and 19 seats, the Conservatives at 16.5% and six seats, and the NDP is at 10.9% and one seat. The Greens are at 6.1%.

As for the non-battleground regions, we have some significant movement. In Alberta the Conservatives have gained 0.7 points while the Liberals are down 0.4. In the Prairies, the NDP is down 0.6 points while the Conservatives are up 0.3. And in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals are up 0.6 points, the Conservatives are down 0.4, the NDP is down 0.3 points, and the Greens are up 0.3. All other regional movements were less than 0.3 points.

In all, the Conservatives are up in six of the seven regions. The Greens are up in three regions, the Liberals are up in two, and the NDP is up in one.

The Conservatives are on the brink of being projected to win a stable minority. Currently, the Liberals and the NDP are projected to hold 130 seats - one more than the Conservatives.

The Toronto Star is teasing an Angus-Reid poll taken on Tuesday and Wednesday. All they mention is that the Conservatives are at 37%, the Liberals at 27%, the NDP at 17%, and the Bloc at 11%. That means the Liberals have suffered from this week's manoeuvres while the NDP has benefited. It also probably means that the Bloc, at 11%, has made some political hay out of the Coderre affair.

More when I have more!

2 comments:

  1. The details of the Angus Reid poll have been posted on their site

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'm on their mailing list so I get the details at the same time as they're posted on their site. Thanks though.

    ReplyDelete

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