Thursday, October 1, 2009

New Ekos Poll: 6.3-pt Conservative Lead; Nanos Poll

EKOS has released its weekly poll this morning, taken between September 23 and September 29 and involved 3,216 Canadians. The result:

Conservatives - 36.0%
Liberals - 29.7%
New Democrats - 13.9%
Greens - 10.5%
Bloc Quebecois - 9.8%

This represents small losses for the Conservatives and Liberals, and modest gains for the NDP. But this is just what we've seen over the last little while, so nothing new here. The Tory lead seems to have plateaued, while the Liberal vote has seemed to have bottomed out. The NDP are still in a very worrisome position.

The regionals are consistent with what the other polling firms have reported over the last week.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 37.4%, the Liberals follow with 25%, and the NDP is in third with 23.3%. The Greens are at 14.3%. I think the NDP and Liberals would be happy with these results, the Conservatives not.

Alberta has the Conservatives way out in front at 63.1%, followed by the Liberals at 16%, the Greens at 10.8%, and the NDP at 10.1%.

The Tories lead in the Prairies with 48.8% followed by the Liberals at 26.2% and the NDP, still under-achieving, at 20%.

The big Conservative lead in Ontario seems to be narrowing of late, with the Conservatives at 40.2% and the Liberals at 35.7%. The NDP is at 13.4%.

The Bloc sees a bump in Quebec to 39.6%, while the Liberals have dropped a little to 26.4%. The Conservatives are at 16.6%, the Greens at 9.2%, and the NDP at 8.2%. If the NDP finishes in fifth in Quebec, they really need to be worried.

The Liberals still hold a significant lead in Atlantic Canada, 40.7% to the Tory 28.7%. At 18.9%, the NDP is in trouble.

Demographically, the Tories lead the Liberals among males (40.1% to 28.4%), females (31.8% to 31.1%), 45-64 year olds (40.9% to 29.8%), 65+ year olds (45.6% to 29.8%), high school graduates (37.9% to 22.3%), college graduates (40.3% to 26.9%), and in Vancouver (40.2% to 26.5%), Calgary (62% to 19.6%), and Ottawa (43.4% to 39.3%). That last one shows the Liberals closing the gap in the nation's capital. And why do they poll Calgary? That is a deep Tory blue. Edmonton would be so much more useful.

The Liberals lead the Greens among those aged 25 or younger (25% to 22.5%). They lead the Tories among 25-44 year olds (30.6% to 30.5%) and university graduates (37.1% to 31.3%). They also lead in Toronto (43.3% to 38.1%) after losing that lead last week.

The Bloc leads in Montreal (34.5% to the Liberals' 31.7%). The NDP's best result came among those under the age of 25, with 16.9%. Among the major cities, they're doing best in Vancouver (20.7%).

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Conservatives - 136
Liberals - 99
Bloc Quebecois - 52
New Democrats - 21

Some better results for the Liberals then we've been seeing, and the Bloc would certainly be happy with 52.

The poll also featured some other topics. 38% of Canadians are embarrassed with Canada's environmental record, while 23% are proud and 29% are neither.

49% support compulsory voting (surprisingly), while 36% oppose.

The mission in Afghanistan is unpopular, with 33% supporting it and 52% opposing it. The breakdown by party affiliation is interesting, as 49% of Conservatives support the mission compared to 34% who don't. Meanwhile, 55% of Liberals oppose the mission compared to 31% who support it. The Bloc's voters are most adamant about the war, with 75% opposed and only 14% in favour.

Nanos has released the results of an older poll, taken between September 3 and September 11 and involving 1,002 Canadians. It has to do with government and elections.

74.6% of Canadians expect minorities in the future, but 80.6% would prefer a majority. Oddly, only Green voters aren't in favour of a majority government. Why Bloc or NDP voters would like to see a majority government is beyond me. "I want to vote for a party that will be absolutely irrelevant for four years!" How does that make sense? The NDP and the Bloc have had real influence on how the government is run because they weren't in majority situations.

As to who can best manage a minority government, and Nanos begs the respondents to put aside their political views (they don't), Stephen Harper leads with 32.8%, followed by Michael Ignatieff at 23.0%, Jack Layton at 14.4%, and Gilles Duceppe at 5.9%.

Finally, as to whether Canadians wanted an election this fall or not, 22.6% said they did and 72.6% said they didn't.

The projection will be updated either tonight or tomorrow morning.