New Environics Poll: 1-pt Conservative Lead

Environics has released a new poll, showing a closer race than the recent EKOS poll.The Conservatives hold a narrow one-point lead with 31%. The Liberals are at 30%, the NDP at 16%, and the Greens are at 13%.

UPDATE: Comparing this to Environic's February 4-9 poll, we actually see a lot of movement. The Liberals have lost seven points while the Tories are down two. Those go to the Greens (up four) and the NDP (up three). Rarely do we see so much movement between one poll and the next by one pollster, which leads one to believe that the results of one or the other (or both) were somewhere near the outside of the MOE.

In Ontario, the Liberals are well ahead with 38% (down six) to the Tories' 33% (down two). The NDP is doing alright at 16% (up four).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has a good lead with 37% (up one) to the Liberals' 28% (down seven). The Conservatives are at a dismal 12% (down two), though that same number for the NDP is strong (and up four).

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are doing better with 37% (up four), while the NDP and Greens are tied at 21% (only a three point gain for the Greens) and the Liberals are at 19% (down nine). A little odd, but this is a relatively smaller poll.

The Alberta numbers show a little of the MOE as well, with the Liberals at 27%. To be fair, though, this is only up one from the month's earlier poll. What we do know is that they are doing well in the province anyway.

The Conservatives would win 121 seats with this poll, 73 of them out West. Only 36 come from Ontario, 3 from Quebec, and 9 from Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals win 106 seats, 13 of them coming from the West, 56 in Ontario, 19 in Quebec, and 18 in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP wins 29 seats, 8 out West, 14 in Ontario, 2 in Quebec, and 5 in Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc wins 51 seats, increasing their current caucus. The Greens also win one seat in British Columbia.

Another data-point, but this one shows a closer race. There is a lot of variation between this poll and the one by Environic's earlier this month, which leads one to believe that a lot of this movement is due to the MOE.

Note: like EKOS, Environics prompts the party names. Unlike EKOS, they don't prompt for "Other". This clearly makes a difference.

New Ekos Poll: 3.1-pt Conservative Lead

The new EKOS poll shows that things aren't changing too much, as both major parties make modest gains. But the Tory lead is starting to strengthen.With a gain of 2.2 points since EKOS's last poll, the Conservatives are at 33.4%. The Liberals, gaining 1.3 points, are at 30.3%. The NDP has lost 0.7 points and stands at 15.8%, while the Greens (10.4%) are down 1.4 points.

So, a little life by both the Liberals and the Conservatives.

In Ontario, both the Liberals and Conservatives are up about a point, but the Liberals maintain the slimmest of leads (36.2% to 36.0%). The NDP is stable.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois drops three points to 33%. The Liberals gain two and are at 27.4%. The Conservatives also gain two, but are still low at 18.2%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives gain one but are still struggling at 31.3%. The Liberals lose three and the NDP gains two, putting them at a tie at 26.4%.

In the smaller regions, no real surprises. The Conservatives are up six in Alberta, the Liberals are up seven in the Prairies, and the NDP loses four points to the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada.

Toronto doesn't show much movement (Tories up two, Liberals down one, NDP down two), and neither does Montreal (Liberals up three, Conservatives and NDP down one, and Bloc down two).

The Conservatives would win 127 seats with this poll, 63 of them out West, 46 in Ontario, 9 in Quebec, and 9 in Atlantic Canada.

The Liberals would win 106 seats, 19 of them in the West (note, for future reference, that the North is included in this "West), 48 in Ontario, 20 in Quebec, and 19 in Atlantic Canada.

The NDP would win 29 seats, 13 of them out West, 12 in Ontario, and 4 in Atlantic Canada.

The Bloc wins 46 seats, while the Greens are shut out again.

Nothing much new in this poll, though one thing it indicates is that the Conservative drop has likely ended, and we will probably see their numbers rebound a little. However, I don't think we will return to the double-digit leads.