Big drop for NDP in latest EKOS poll

Yesterday's EKOS poll shows that the New Democrats have lost a significant amount of support over the last two weeks, with all other parties making gains at their expense.The Conservatives are still in the lead with 33.1% support, however, up 0.7 points from EKOS's last poll two weeks ago. The Liberals are up a full point to 29.9%, but the NDP has dropped 3.1 points to 13.5%. That is a huge drop, especially for an EKOS poll where changes are rarely this large at the national level.

The Greens are up 0.2 points to 10.9% while the Bloc Québécois is up 1.2 points to 10.1%.

Aside from the losses sustained by Jack Layton's party, the demographic breakdown paints an interesting picture of Conservative and Liberal support. The Tories still lead among men, with a 36.4% to 28.5% edge over the Liberals. But the Liberals are ahead 31.3% to 30.0% among women. When it comes to education, the Conservatives are ahead among high school graduates with 34.3% to the Liberals' 22.5%, but the Liberals are ahead among university graduates, 39.8% to 26.1%.

The Conservatives lead in Ontario with 37% support, up two points from two weeks ago. The Liberals are at 36.5%, up one point and very competitive. The NDP is unchanged at 13.8%, while the Greens are down two to 10.7%. The Liberals lead in Toronto with 43.3% and Ottawa with 42.5%. The Conservatives trail in both cities with 34% and 39.8%, respectively.

The Bloc has gained five points and leads with 40.8% support in Quebec, followed by the Liberals at 24.4% (up one). The Tories are down seven big points to 14.1%, indicating that the effects of the arena funding in Quebec City may have gone up in smoke. The NDP is down three points to 8.7%, actually ranking behind the Greens who are at 8.9%. The Bloc leads with 38.3% in Montreal, followed by the Liberals at 25%.

The Conservatives are up eight points in British Columbia, and lead with 35.3%. The Liberals are up one to 27.6% while the NDP has dropped eight points to 23.2%. The Greens are also down, with a drop of four points to 10.9%. The Conservatives dominate in Vancouver with 47.4%, with the NDP at a distant second with 20.7%.

The Liberals are up eight points in Atlantic Canada, and lead with 41.1%. The Conservatives are down seven to 26.2% while the NDP is also down seven, to 14.8%. The Greens have moved into third here with 16.6%.

In Alberta, the Conservatives have gained five points and lead with 56.5%. The Liberals follow with 15.3%, down eight.

The Conservatives are up eight points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and lead with 50.2%. The Liberals are second with 26.7% (up five) while the NDP is down 15 points to 9%, running fourth behind the Greens who are at 11.6%.

With this poll, the Conservatives would win 68 seats in the West and North, 48 in Ontario, seven in Atlantic Canada, and five in Quebec for a total of 128.

The Liberals would win 47 seats in Ontario, 23 in Atlantic Canada, 19 in the West and North, and 16 in Quebec for a total of 105.

The Bloc would win 54 seats in Quebec.

The NDP would win 11 seats in Ontario, eight in the West, and two in Atlantic Canada for a total of 21.

EKOS also took a look at support for a coalition between the Liberals and NDP, vis-a-vis the Conservatives. Interestingly, in such a situation the imagined Coalition would get 41% support, while the Conservatives would run a close second with 39%. Taking out the "don't knows" or "none of the aboves", that would be a 51% to 49% split in favour of the Coalition.

Again, taking out the non-committal respondents, the Coalition would win 55% support in British Columbia, 62% in Quebec, and 59% in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives would win with 70% in Alberta, 60% in the Prairies, and 51% in Ontario in a face-to-face contest. Interesting stuff.

The poll also found that 26% of Canadians want a Conservative majority, 10% want a Conservative minority, 16% want a Liberal minority, and 22% want a Liberal majority. That means 38% want a Liberal government of some kind compared to 36% who want a Conservative government of some time. Extrapolating this to say that 48% want a majority government, however, misses the point as most of the support for a Liberal or Conservative majority comes only from within those parties. In other words, Conservatives don't want a Liberal majority and Liberals don't want a Conservative majority. So it isn't about the form of government but rather who is in it.

But to return to voting intentions, if this trouble for the NDP continue, it will really make things a bit more clear cut for the two main parties. The Liberals (and Bloc Québécois) really do seem to have made some gains at the expense of the NDP, which is generally the scenario the Conservatives are trying to avoid. But, as in all things political, it could change very quickly.

Liberals drop in latest Angus-Reid poll

The latest poll from Angus-Reid, released yesterday, shows the Liberals and New Democrats down, with gains going to the Conservatives and Greens.Compared to Angus-Reid's last poll taken on August 10 and 11, the Conservatives have gained one point and stand at 34%. The Liberals are down three to 26%, while the NDP is down one to 18%.

The Greens have gained two points and stand at 11%, with the Bloc Québécois at 10%.

In Ontario, the race is still close with both the Conservatives and Liberals dropping one point to 36% and 33%, respectively. The NDP, contrary to some other polls, is at 19% here (up one). The Greens are unchanged at 11%.

The Bloc leads in Quebec with 38% (up one), followed by the Liberals at 22% (up two) and the Conservatives at 17% (up one). The NDP is down one to 17%.

In British Columbia, the Conservatives are steady at 39%, with the NDP falling three points to 24%. The Liberals are down seven to 18%, while the Greens are up nine to 17%. These are the types of changes chalked up to low sample size.

The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada with 48%, down 17 points from August's ridiculous 65%. The Conservatives follow with 31%, up 13.

The Conservatives are down nine points to 52% in Alberta, followed by the Liberals at 17%.

In the Prairies, the Conservatives are up eight to 50%, followed by the NDP at 24% and the Liberals at 19% (down 13).

With this poll, the Conservatives would win 73 seats in the West and North, 48 in Ontario, seven in Quebec, and seven in Atlantic Canada for a total of 135.

The Liberals would win 41 seats in Ontario, 25 in Atlantic Canada, 14 in Quebec, and 11 in the West and North for a total of 91.

The Bloc would win 52 seats in Quebec.

The NDP would win 17 seats in Ontario, 11 in the West, and two in Quebec for a total of 30.

This poll looked at a few other subjects, including the approval and disapproval ratings of the three main party leaders. Stephen Harper's approval/disapproval rating was 25/49, a gap that has negatively grown by three points.

Jack Layton's split is 27% to 37%, a gap that has negatively grown by five points. That is no small amount, and perhaps an indication of how the long-gun registry has hurt him.

Michael Igantieff's split is 15% to 47% - very bad numbers, but the gap has actually grown in a positive way for the Liberal leader. It's only one point, but good news on this front is hard to come by for Ignatieff.

The poll also found that 34% of Canadians support having an election this fall, compared to 44% who oppose it. Interestingly, a small majority of opposition party supporters are in favour of an election this fall, while only 28% of Conservative supporters can say the same thing.

All in all, this is a good poll for the Conservatives. An eight-point gap is much wider than what we've seen in other polls. But they didn't get any stellar regional results - they could be doing better everywhere.

Relatively speaking, this is a good poll for the NDP. But with most other polls showing their support shrinking, this could be just an outlier.