New Democrats and PCs tied in Manitoba, advantage NDP

A new poll by Probe Research shows that the governing New Democrats in Manitoba have closed the gap on their Progressive Conservative rivals in the province, and could squeeze another majority mandate out of the numbers.

Compared to Probe's last poll conducted in March, just before the start of the federal election campaign, the Progressive Conservatives have dropped three points and now stand at 44%, tied with the New Democrats.

Premier Greg Selinger's party has gained nine points since then, much of it on the backs of the provincial Liberals who have sunk five points to only 9% support.

Selinger's handling of the flooding in the province and perhaps even the acquisition of the Atlanta Thrashers, now the Winnipeg Jets, may have played a role in his change of fortunes. The success of the federal NDP is undoubtedly another probable factor.

The New Democrats have made big gains both in the capital and in the rest of Manitoba.

In Winnipeg, the New Democrats are up eight points and lead with 50%, well ahead of the Progressive Conservatives, who are unchanged at 37%. The Liberals are down five points to 11% in the province's main city.

Outside of it, the Progressive Conservatives still lead but have dropped seven points to 55%. The NDP is up 12 points to 36%, while the Liberals are down six points to 5%.

It is a very good poll for the NDP and a very disastrous one for the Liberals. They have lost roughly one-third of their support since March, and most of it to the New Democrats.

But the PCs still do have an ace up their sleeve. Of their voters, 68% are "very certain" in their choice. That is up eight points since March and well ahead of the New Democrats, 52% of whose voters are certain to vote for them. It is even worse for the Liberals. Only 26% of their voters are certain in their choice.

If that kind of turnout occurred on election day, this 44-44-9 split would be transformed into a PC victory with 54% of the vote, with the New Democrats at 41% and the Liberals at 4%.

But with the results of the voting intentions poll only, ThreeHundredEight projects a slim New Democratic majority government of 30 seats. The Progressive Conservatives form the Official Opposition with 26 seats, while the Liberals retain one seat.

That's a drop of six seats for the NDP compared to their current standing and a gain of seven for the PCs, but compared to the projection done for the last Probe poll this is an increase of eight seats for the NDP and a loss of eight for the PCs.

Manitoba is setting up to be the most closely contested of the five provincial elections scheduled for the fall. Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Saskatchewan should see landslides by their respective incumbent governments. The Liberals are behind the eight ball in Ontario, though the outcome is still up in the air, but in Manitoba it is looking like anyone's game. How Selinger handles his party in his first campaign as leader could be a major factor in deciding whether he gets to win a mandate for himself or not.

PCs stable, Liberals drop in Ontario

Reported by The Toronto Star on Sunday, a new Forum Research poll for Ontario shows that the Progressive Conservatives hold a massive 15-point lead over the governing Liberals. And with the New Democrats looking good in the province, the result could be quite a drubbing for Dalton McGuinty.

According to Forum's large poll conducted over IVR, the Progressive Conservatives lead with 41%, generally where the other pollsters have pegged the party.

The difference in this Forum poll, however, is how low the Liberals have sunk. They stand at 26%, eight points lower than the recent Ipsos-Reid poll. Whether June has worsened the situation for the Liberals or whether Forum has under-shot the Liberals by a little will have to be proven in subsequent polls.

The New Democrats stand at 22%, slightly higher than others have put the party, while the Greens are at 8%.

Long-time readers will note that I usually don't compare one poll from one firm to another by a different firm, but in this case we don't have anything else with which to compare this Forum poll.

Regionally, the Progressive Conservatives hold an impressive lead throughout the province. They are at 50% in eastern Ontario and hovering around 40% in the GTA, the southwest, and the north.

The Liberals are trailing in second in eastern Ontario (25%) and the GTA (28%), but are much closer in the downtown 416 area code. They still trail the PCs there, however. They are also tied with the NDP in southwestern Ontario and are running third in the north.

At 24%, the NDP is second in the north and tied with the Liberals at 25% in southwestern Ontario. They stand at 22% in the GTA and 16% in the east.

With this poll only, ThreeHundredEight projects a Progressive Conservative majority government with 67 seats.

The New Democrats form the Official Opposition with 23 seats, while the Liberals are reduced to third-party status with only 17 seats.

These results looked odd to me as well, considering that the NDP ends up ahead of the Liberals with less of the vote. I am still using the older abstract model for Ontario, so I headed over to the UBC's election forecaster for a little confirmation. I got something even wonkier there: only five seats for the Liberals.

Clearly, the New Democrats should be more efficient in turning votes into seats than the Liberals. Though the NDP isn't exactly riding high, they are riding close enough to the Liberals to be a real problem for Dalton McGuinty.

Speaking of the premier, he is considered the best person for the job by 30% of the province, behind Tim Hudak at 38% but ahead of Andrea Horwath of the NDP, who is at 22%.

There is a little bit of a silver lining here for McGuinty. He is slightly more popular than his own party, indicating that his experience is a strength. Hudak, on the other hand, is less popular than his own party, indicating that his inexperience and novelty could be a weakness. But Hudak would still gladly take a 38% to 30% spread at the polls.