Thursday, February 12, 2009

New Nanos Research Poll

Nanos Research released a poll today, taken between January 30 and February 3 and involving 881 committed voters. This poll is older than three polls already listed, but you can see the detailed results at the bottom of the page. The highlights:

Conservatives - 34%
Liberals - 33%
New Democrats - 16%
Bloc Quebecois - 10%
Greens - 7%

And, of course, here are the Quebec numbers:

Bloc Quebecois - 38%
Liberals - 28%
Conservatives - 16%
New Democrats - 14%
Greens 5%

My last bone to pick, I promise. But that makes three national polls by reputable polling firms done over the same period, showing the Bloc at between 38% and 42% and the Green Party at between 4% and 5% in Quebec. In all, these three polls number around 800 people. And then there is the Strategic Counsel poll, involving 244 people, that put the Greens at 26% and the Bloc at 22%. Will we see a mea culpa, or will Strategic Counsel be talking about the 21-point dive of the Greens in Quebec next month?

The numbers in Ontario, with the Liberals at 43% and the Conservatives at 34%, do seem to confirm what is an emerging trend in the polling numbers: Ontario is turning red. The projection is somewhat (small-c) conservative, and projects what the results would be after an election campaign based on the current state of public opinion. That's why the Conservatives still have a slight lead over the Liberals in Ontario.

The projection has had some changes The Conservatives are back up to 138 seats and the Liberals are also up, at 99. I am guessing they will cross the psychological barrier of 100 seats in the next few weeks. The NDP were the losers in this case, dropping to 22 seats.

The national popular vote projection has changed as well, with the Liberals up 0.2% and the Conservatives down 0.2%. The Greens, Bloc, and NDP have stayed the same. Of note is the gap in Ontario between the Conservatives and the Liberals, which is now only 1.3%.