Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Projection Updated

Despite missing some information from the Harris-Decima poll and the clear anomaly in the Strategic Counsel poll, I've updated the projection with the information I do have. The opinion polling chart has been updated as well, though I did not include the Quebec result from the Strategic Counsel poll on the opinion trend chart because it is clearly wrong.

Adding these two new polls has resulted in a seat change. The Conservatives are now down to 137 seats and the NDP up to 24. The national popular vote has also changed:

Greens +1.1
Liberals +0.1
Bloc Quebecois -0.0
New Democrats -0.1
Conservatives -0.5

No word yet from Strategic Counsel, but until I do hear from them I've reduced their reliability rating by half, from 60% to 30%. In case you're wondering, the polling firms are rated according to how close they predicted the 2008 federal election result. The best polling firm is Angus Reid.