Sunday, October 18, 2015

2015 Federal Election Link Round-up: Week 11

The final week is finally here!

Sunday, October 18, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated for the last time in this campaign (*sniff*). I'll have a detailed breakdown of the final projection up on this site soon.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated (at 7:27 PM ET).

- My final Poll Tracker analysis for the CBC in this campaign, in which I go over the broad strokes of what to expect tonight.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated (at 12:45 PM ET). I'll update throughout the day if new polls emerge, and post my final projection late tonight.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

- An extra-long, extra-good episode of the Pollcast, the last before the election! Joining me is Chris Hall, who has an encyclopedic knowledge of the races in this campaign, and Christian Bourque of Léger, who has been a favourite of ours on the podcast. Don't forget to subscribe here, the post-election episode will be one you won't want to miss.

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated. But a note about those. Throughout this campaign, the projections on this site have been quoted by many as if they were actual polls. They are not, as I have made explicitly clear. They are estimates based on province-wide trends and, when available, riding polls. They are not an aggregation of polls done within a riding, as a public poll has not been conducted in most ridings. That is the case with Outremont, which is currently projected to go Liberal by a whisker.

Understand this: there have been no public polls in Outremont, so we do not know for certain if Thomas Mulcair is in any trouble or not. What the projection says is this: if the NDP's support in Quebec decreases by a uniform proportion throughout the province, and if Thomas Mulcair is unable to withstand those trends to a greater extent than the average party leader in his situation, then he might be in tough in his own riding. Those are big assumptions. What the projections suggest is that Outremont is a riding to watch, and one the Liberals could theoretically pick up. The projections do not suggest that Mulcair is actually trailing in his riding.

The same applies to every single riding projection, and I urge people to use them as a rough guide to the race, rather than a precise measurement of actual support.

- My final regional spotlight is on the GTA, minus the T.

- A did a round-up of the electoral map with Chris Hall on The House this morning.

- A last look at the polls on the polling panel with Dimitri Pantazopoulos and Shachi Kurl.

- The latest polls are all showing a Liberal lead, but it is either a relatively narrow one that the Tories might close on turnout (Angus Reid Institute, EKOS) or it is a wide one that gives a strong indication of the Liberals winning a minority, or possible majority, government (Nanos, Léger, Mainstreet).

- Poll Tracker update and an episode of the Pollcast coming today!

Friday, October 16, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- Nanos, EKOS, and Forum this morning and yesterday afternoon, as well as some Mainstreet riding polls from Alberta and British Columbia. Nanos and EKOS showing a Conservative uptick, but Forum isn't.

- I was on Metro Morning yesterday talking about the state of the race in Toronto, and projections more generally.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- National polls yesterday afternoon and this morning show the Liberals still in a good spot, with Nanos continuing to show the party with the momentum. EKOS has the Liberals and Tories down with the NDP up, though their NDP score puts them on par with other pollsters. There have also been a smattering of riding polls, which I'm having trouble keeping track of. So I suggest you peruse this exhaustive list from now until Monday.

- I was on Power and Politics yesterday talking about British Columbia.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

- Sorry for the lack of updates today! In the meantime, you can check out my analysis of British Columbia. Back to normal (or as close as I can get to it here in Trawna) tomorrow!

- You can also take a look at this. I think the guinea pigs are an electoral reform option nobody is talking about, but they should be.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated. It was either update at the end of the day today, or not update until Thursday, due to scheduling issues tomorrow. I don't think that would have went over well.

- I took a look at where the polls were a week out in 2011, and what (if anything) we can draw from that in 2015.

- No national polls this morning! Woe be upon us. The best we have is a poll in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, showing the NDP in a better position than expected in the projections. It will be added for the next update.

- Don't freak out, but there may be no Poll Tracker update until Thursday. No polls today with which to update, and I will probably not have time tomorrow to squeeze an update in. I apologize in advance if that is the case.

Monday, October 12, 2015

- The Poll Tracker and riding projections have been updated.

- Happy Thanksgiving! Which, according to pundits like me, is the time when you are legally mandated to argue politics with your family.

- A few polls over the last few days, despite the holiday weekend. Nanos is showing a very wide Liberal lead, as is Forum. EKOS is showing a much closer race, however. And it is differentiated from the other polls in having the New Democrats very low, at just 19%.

- My latest regional look, which went up on Saturday, was at the regions of Quebec, or Quebec outside the Greater Montreal. When I initially planned my schedule of regional looks, I had made certain to put Quebec near the end of the list just in case. That turned out to be a good idea.