Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Conservative base solid, but growth needed to challenge Liberals

Conservatives holding their caucus retreat this week in Halifax can rest assured that, despite Justin Trudeau's soaring poll numbers, their base is solid. But while that base is strong enough to keep the party first in fundraising, the Conservatives will not take power again relying upon their base alone.

So that base must grow. But a Conservative leadership race without a household name in the running — particularly now that Peter MacKay has announced he will not throw his hat in the ring — will make that a challenge.

After capturing 31.9 per cent of the vote in last year's federal vote, the Conservatives have averaged 28.6 per cent support in polls conducted since. This matches where the party was polling for much of 2013 and 2014, when the Mike Duffy affair was eating into the Conservatives' numbers.

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