23h00 - I don't mean to brag (well, maybe I do), but out of the five projectors on Quebecpolitique.com I am currently the closest. I am 8 seats off, Geloso-Breguet is 10 seats off, DemocraticSpace is 12 seats off, Quebecpol is 14 seats off, and HKDP is 24 seats off. I was the only one to project that the PLQ would have less than 70 seats and the PQ more than 50, and all of my popular vote projections were within 2%. I'd have to say that it has been a success.
I will take a closer look at the results and my projections tomorrow and throughout the next week. Good night!
22h30 - Mario Dumont will resign as leader of the ADQ. Certainly the saddest moment of the evening for the simple fact that Dumont has been a fixture of Quebec politics for over 14 years. Suffice to say, this sort of makes the next election difficult to project!
22h00 - The numbers are still looking good. The PLQ is still currently at 65 seats, only three off of my projection. But virtually all of the other projectors had the PLQ at over 70 seats. The PQ is at 52 seats, only one off of my projection of 53, and the ADQ is at 7, three more than my projection. QS surprised me with their win in Mercier which Radio-Canada is now announcing. Incredible.
My popular vote projection is pretty close as well. The PLQ is right now at 41.53% (about 1.4% off of my projection), the PQ at 35.4% (about 2.2% off of my projection), the ADQ at 16.62% (about 1.1% off of mine), QS at 3.88% (only 0.1% off of my projection), and PVQ at 2.14% (1.7% off of mine). Being within 2% on all counts pleases me greatly.
21h00 - So far, I'm quite pleased with how my projections are panning out. As of this moment, Radio-Canada is projecting 65 seats for the PLQ (I have 68), 51 for the PQ (I have 53), 9 for the ADQ (I have 4), and 1 for QS (I have 0). The PLQ number will probably bump up to nearer to what I have projected, and the ADQ will probably drop down a little bit. Mercier is the race to watch.
The popular vote is also relatively close to my projection, as of this moment. Radio-Canada has the PLQ at 41.91% (I have 42.90%), the PQ at 35.21% (I have 33.16%), the ADQ at 16.24% (I have 15.46%), the PVQ at 1.94% (I have 3.83%), and QS at 3.80% (I have 3.98%). We can't forget these results are preliminary, but so far I'm pleased. I'll update in an hour.