Sunday, January 18, 2009

New Projections

Finally, the site has been updated with new projections. The Conservatives look to lose a few seats but maintain a strong minority government. The Liberals have the most to gain, Michael Ignatieff bumping up the Liberals to 95 seats. The NDP looks to be the biggest loser were an election to take place today, dropping to 25 seats. The Bloc would gain one seat, stealing some from the Conservatives while losing a few to the Liberals. Quebec is one of the biggest changes, with the Liberals up about three points and the Conservatives down around two.

Here are the seat changes from the 2008 election:

Liberals +18
Bloc Québécois +1
Independents -2
Conservatives -5
NDP -12

And here are the popular vote changes:

Liberals +3.7
Conservatives -0.1
Greens -0.3
Bloc Québécois -0.7
NDP -1.7

Here are the popular vote changes in Ontario for the three major parties:

Liberals +3.5
Conservatives +0.2
NDP -2.0

And here for Quebec:

Liberals +2.5
Bloc Québécois +1.0
NDP -2.1
Conservatives -2.5

The reality is that Ignatieff has been a game changer. The Conservatives have hurt a bit from it but the real loser has to be the NDP.