Saturday, January 17, 2009

Two New Polls

This time from Angus-Reid and Strategic Counsel. I'm not ready to make projections yet, but still wanted to pass along the information. First, Angus-Reid:

Conservatives - 39%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 17%
Bloc Québécois - 9%
Greens - 5%

And now Strategic Counsel:

Conservatives - 36%
Liberals - 29%
NDP - 18%
Bloc Québécois - 8%
Greens - 8%

This more or less confirms my hunch that the Nanos poll was an outlier. The results for Ontario and Quebec breakdown like this, with AR first and SC second:

ONTARIO

Conservatives - 42%/41%
Liberals - 40%/37%
NDP - 12%/16%
Greens - 5%/7%

QUEBEC

Bloc Québécois - 37%/36%
Liberals - 25%/29%
Conservatives - 19%/17%
NDP - 12%/11%
Greens - 5%/8%

If it is as close as it looks in Ontario and if the Liberals are doing so much better than the Conservatives in Quebec, an election result could be much closer than the national numbers show.

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