Thursday, April 23, 2009

New Feature: Last Five Polls Projection

On the right-side of the page, you'll see a new feature: the "Last Five Polls Projection". This projection is based on the last five polls that have been released for each region. The results are averaged out, and that number is put into the seat-projecting model. And that's the result. This will be constantly updated as new polls come out, with the oldest poll being dropped and the newest one being added.

So, for the last five polls ranging from March 18 to April 19 (though the range can be longer for regions that have fewer polls), we get:

Liberals - 34.7% - 134 seats
Conservatives - 31.6% - 103 seats
Bloc Quebecois - 9.5% - 51 seats
New Democrats - 14.7% - 20 seats
Greens - 8.4% - 0 seats

This new projection is a companion to the official projection. The official projection is what I project the result would be after an electoral campaign. The 5-poll projection is what the situation is right now, if the vote were held today.

I hope this gives you all the information you could possibly need about the current political situation in Canada.

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