Wednesday, April 22, 2009

New Poll: Harris-Decima

Harris-Decima released a new poll today, taken between April 8 and April 19, and involving over 2,000 interviews. I don't have the details from Harris-Decima yet, but the Toronto Star had a very complete report on the poll. Once the Harris-Decima report is on their website, I'll include the exact number of interviews in the model.

You might have noticed the new pie-chart on the right-side of the page. It is explained at the bottom of this post.

First, the national results of the poll:

Liberals - 32%
Conservatives - 29%
New Democrats - 16%
Greens - 11%
Bloc Quebecois - 9%

We have not seen the Conservatives this low for a very, very long time. Being below 30% is a huge blow for the Tories.

Ontario:

Liberals - 40%
Conservatives - 31%
New Democrats - 15%
Greens - 14%

Nothing special here, just a continuance of the Liberal lead. But the Greens had a very good result.

Quebec:

Bloc Quebecois - 40%
Liberals - 31%
Conservatives - 12%
New Democrats - 9%
Greens - 5%

This is within the trends we've been seeing lately. Continued trouble for the Conservatives, continued strength for both the Bloc and the Liberals.

British Columbia:

New Democrats - 29%
Liberals - 26%
Conservatives - 26%
Greens - 16%

These numbers are the biggest surprise of the poll; first, because the NDP is in front and second because the Greens are so competitive. One has to wonder whether this is a bit of an outlier result.

The results in Atlantic Canada, Alberta, and the Prairies were within the norm.

The projection has changed, but not as much as I thought a 2,000-interview poll would cause. The Conservatives have dropped a seat to 130, giving it to the Bloc who is now at 51. The Liberals remain at 108. I know what you're thinking, that the projection doesn't seem to jive with the last few polls we've seen. Again, the model works slowly, and it has been up and running for five months now. The Liberals have only taken the lead in the past few weeks. For those Grits watching the numbers inch up and down, I say "patience". Another month of these numbers and things could change radically.

In terms of national popular vote, the Greens have gained 0.3 points and the Conservatives have lost 0.5 points. The other three parties have remained the same.

Regionally, the Conservatives have lost one whole point in British Columbia, 0.6 in Alberta, and 0.4 in Ontario. The Greens have gained some ground everywhere and the Bloc is back up to 38%. The NDP and Liberals remained stable throughout the country in the projection, which is good news for the NDP.

This is the second of two consecutive, disastrous polls for the Conservatives. They are bleeding support everywhere. This wasn't a particularly good poll for the Liberals, but was good enough for them and continues the trend of being a few steps ahead of the Tories. The 40% result in Quebec is good for the Bloc, and the Greens have here one of the best polls they've had this year. The poll was also friendly to the NDP, particularly in British Columbia.

The Harris-Decima poll translates into these many seats:

Liberals - 126
Conservatives - 94
Bloc Quebecois - 53
New Democrats - 34
Greens - 1

This is also represented in the new pie-chart on the right-side of the page. This is the seat projection based on the most recent poll ONLY. It is not the official projection because a poll is just a snapshot in time, the projection model takes into account other factors.

From the EKOS poll last week, this is 13 seats fewer for the Liberals, three fewer for the Conservatives, one more for the Bloc, and 15 more for the NDP. This is a good indication of the importance of regional breakdowns. The national results for the NDP in the EKOS and Harris-Decima polls were almost identical, yet the difference in seats is huge.

5 comments:

  1. Good analysis, with one minor quibble:

    "This wasn't a particularly good poll for the Liberals"

    We might be getting spoiled here, because from my partisan perspective, anything that translates to this is very impressive:

    Liberals - 126
    Conservatives - 94
    Bloc Quebecois - 53
    New Democrats - 34
    Greens - 1


    That 32% is distracting, because the regionals really show strength where Liberals have to have it.

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  2. Well, that's what I mean. All of the polls have been good for the Liberals lately, this one just isn't particularly good. With those seat totals, I'd call it an "Unstable Minority Government", because any combination of two of the three major opposition parties can defeat the government. And being elected with 32% would not be very good.

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  3. Fair enough, I'm just speaking relatively. A gain of 50 seats since the election looked like a dream two months ago :)

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  4. Eric, HD has released their PDF:

    http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downloads/pdf/news_releases/042309E.pdf

    It's actually quite fascinating, because they've polled continually without always releasing results. The last published poll had a statistically tie, but if you look at the graph it shows the Libs were actually up to 35%, Cons 29% just three weeks ago.

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  5. That is interesting. It's too bad they don't release all of their polls.

    ReplyDelete

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